They won’t. The IMF will entertain an application but without EU support in the form of co-funding either the IMF will decline to fund or put such conditions on it to make funding extremely expensive. Listen up folks, in spite of what SF and the ULA say, there is no easy money in any of this. Shrugging your shoulders and saying “shure, something’ll turn up!” is the politics of fantasy and I’ll not bet this country’s future on a nationalist fantasy.

I’d vote no exactly because there is no easy money out of any of it. Funny that.

Exactly Paul. It’s austerity either way for most. Can’t but wonder if a no vote will bring about a more evenly spread austerity over a shorter time frame.

From what I can see, people are voting ‘no’ out of fear.

Bad reason

Paul, people are voting Yes out of fear, due to the blackmail clause inserted with the collusion of fine gael. The good ol’ “flip it aroun and run with it” bullcrap won’t wash around here buddy….

@ Too Trueleft – I meant to say ‘yes’ not ‘no’

I’m voting ‘no’ unless someone can provide me a logically, reasoned argument based on evidence not surmising and fear.

We’re on the same page I think?

I assume that you meant “yes” in that comment. Fear is as you say a very poor, unsafe reason to vote yes. All the yes reasons put forward seem to start with “if you don’t then”( insert threat here).

Humblest apologies Paul!

Yes Paul Lanigan
Fear of never being able to afford to look to the future… Which is what they have now Hard working people cannot not see past their next wage because they have been robbed oops taxed out. Irish people are by nature a very strong resourceful nation but our spirit is being chipped away slowly and surely by the past governments Greed and corruption and by the present Government inability to Run the country why can they not run the Country because they got to power by their outright lies and they have continued to lie,and they are so confused by their own lies they now do not know what is the truth hence the Circles the are spinning in. I always believed NEVER TRUST LIARS. And I DO NOT TRUST THIS GOVERNMENT OF LIARS AND TRAITORS.

Just as mr Rabbitte came out the other day to say Mr Hollande in France never said he would look at changing some things in the fiscal treaty. Mr Noonan decides to tell us that an IMF spokesperson has been misquoted! Where do they think we are? North Korea!!!

Hepatitis 2 BullyBoy Noonan?

Cut your own wages and stop shaking the big stick at your people!

We are sick of you selling us short.

Come out and join us in the real world!

Maybe you just weren’t born to lead?

That we have a veto on the passage of the ESM is something that this government doesn’t ever mention; perhaps it has something to do with the fact that they included access to the ESM fund as a blackmail/inducement clause in the Fiscal Compact treaty… Anyway, I thought we didn’t need a 2nd bailout, no?

Sorry Revolt Peasant, my comment above ^ had nothing to do with yours – don’t know how it got posted here instead of separately. I do completely agree with you.

We have a veto over the establishment of the ESM but the “access” of funds is subject to the ratification of the stability treaty.

Why should countries like Greece be able to access money without ever trying to pay it back?

@David, Correct me if I’m wrong, but have you not that the wrong way about? If we don’t agree to the ESM then we have some actual control over what happens next. The potential to veto the ESM gives us a bit of negotiating power/influence in the EU – I’m being emotionally glib here, but it would be a nice change to Enda getting head-patted, if our leaders led with my, my mother’s, my brother’s and his daughters, my friends and their families interests at heart.

And going by RTE NEWS tonight at 9 o’clock there will be money so is NOONAN proving to be a CONSISTENT LIAR

Hear Hear, bring it on…

If there is no funding for us if we vote No then so be it. Times will be hard… but at least we will no longer have to pay those “unsecured bond holders”

We keep hearing from Government that we won’t need another bailout! That being the case, then the treaty becomes irrelevant! I think it’s more about cosy relationships with the big fish in Europe! That Lucinda Creighton one is scared of losing her high powered position at the European table! They don’t give a damn about ordinary people! If we vote no, Europe might start taking Ireland seriously! As things stand, they’re making an example of us, because we haven’t had the courage to fight back! Fine Gael, Labour have had over a year to change things, but it’s actually got worse! If a no vote helps to get them removed, then I’m all for it!

@Gavin … We won’t have to pay the guards, nurses, teachers and other public servants either. Nor will we have to pay pensioners or the unemployed or those dependent on social protection. And when the public services are severely degraded and the private sector suffers from the collapse in demand that would follow, we can all keep ourselves warm around the campfires we make of our own furniture and talk about the good old days when we all had food, drink and shelter!

Would they be the security guards your’re talking about there Desdimona?

@Desmond, that’s pure fear mongering.

Indeed, Thomas, it’s a big scary world out there, but to listen to SF and other anti-groups you’d think that lenders were falling over themselves to lend to us at bargain basement interest!

But Desmond, the government haven’t even the decency to outline what they would do if it’s a no vote. According to the government there is no “no” option, only “yes”. It’s ridiculous. Rather than broach the issue of a no vote, they proceed to scare the shit out of the population instead. Seems to me the government are just worried the’ll be out on their ears shortly after a no vote, so rather than discuss that possibility, and how that might be handled (be it for better or worse) they’d rather scare people into a yes, and carry on with their fake mandate. Maybe they haven’t got an alternative, in which case they aren’t doing their jobs and don’t deserve to be in power in the first place. The whole thing is a sham. Is it too much to ask for that these things be discussed in detail??

I’m not sure I follow you, Paul. Firstly there is nothing sham about the government’s mandate. They were elected just a year ago with a fresh mandate to stabilise the public finances and pull our economy out of a tailspin. We all knew when we voted that these few years are going to be very difficult. You can’t call a democratic mandate from the Irish people a sham, unless of course you weren’t actually paying attention during the last general election.

On your others issue about the government having a Plan B in the event of a No vote. Well, the responsibility to explain what will happen in that event rests with those who want to cut this State off from European funding. Not one of them has offered any credible evidence that Ireland will be able to access reasonably priced support in the event of our needing it. Sinn Fein and the Ultra Left argue that funding will be available from the current EU fund, the EFSF. What they fail to mention however, is that the EFSF winds up in June next year, but the current funding programme we are on does not finish until the end of 2013. SF and the ULA can’t even get that right.

SF and the ULA are playing politics with this country’s economy and public services. They suggesting we engage in an extremely high-stakes gamble with the country’s future the consequences of which would be catastrophic if it went wrong. That is appalling populism. It is not the government’s responsibility to untangle this gamble … It’s our responsibility to ensure that SF and the ULA don’t get the chance to play Russian roulette with Ireland.

Desmond – lets call a spade a spade. They were elected on the back of a manefesto which they knew was nothing but populist offerings. They were given their mandate based on “not one more cent” & “we’ll all share the pain”, “there will be no increase in 3rd level fees or the registration fee” etc etc.
They have renaged on their promises and by doing so they have lost their mandate and should do the honourabel thing and step down.

The Sunday Times did not misquote the IMF spokesperson, but did put an incorrect spin on his comments. The IMF spokesperson made clear that as an IMF member in good standing (I.e. not a defaulter) we can apply for funding it he said nothing about that funding being granted. Noonan knows what he’s talking about the IMF will not lend to Ireland alone. If we cut ourselves off from the ESM by voting No then we’re on our own.

Pure crap. Eurpoe gave basket case Greece more funding in full knowledge it cannot possibly hope to repay rather than have a catastrophic default in the eurozone. There is no way europe would not fund ireland who is in much better shape, especially as so much of the money is being handed straight back to their bankers and we’re left with the bill.

NO to the blackmail. NO to the lies.

If you think Greece is a good example for Ireland to follow then you really aren’t paying attention.

Desmond Ireland’s foreign debt is €1.7 trillion, mostly to the British, Germans, French, and the Americans. Do you think the Germans will let Ireland collapse, not a chance the knock on affect in Europe would be catastrophic, the Euro would be doomed. This Treaty is not good for Ireland.

The Germans and French would have to blanket guarantee their banks, if they refuse to funds us, the two countries most exposed to us our banks are these two, hence why we cannot burn bond holders!

@Mark and Niamh … We may well get funding from our European partners if we vote No but then require a second bailout, but you can pretty much guarantee that the terms of such a funding deal will be significantly worse than those available from the ESM or indeed that we currently avail of. In this respect a No vote runs the very substantial risk of being a vote for MORE austerity. Money is always available, the problem is the cost of accessing those funds and the conditions attached … a bit like the difference between your local credit union and a loan shark!

Desmond if we could not afford the interest payments on a loan, the country will default and collapse, again i say the Germans will not allow this to happen.

This goverment has not been truthful with the people ,they told lies to get in to power and reneged on their promises, , while in power they are still telling lies why should we believe them now .

Hi Mark … That’s what some people thought about Greece and look what happened. German and other banks were also exposed to a collapse in the Greek economy consequent on default and although money has been provided to the Greek state, the cost in austerity has been beyond bearable. Once again, money is almost always available … But at what cost? If we vote No we lose access to the ESM and in the event of our requiring further support we may get funding but at a significantly higher cost both in terms of interest and conditions of further and more severe austerity.

Desmond, the people the government will have to convince is the average tax payer’ while the PS do pay taxes the range of allowances are annoying , the holy trinity of health, social welfare and the Croke park is sticking in the throats of the average taxpayer who has nothing left to give’ earning to much to get the tag on social welfare benefits such as FIS or doctor only cards, earning too little to afford a clever accountant, paying the USC which isn’t universal , paying the household charge , which there is a sizable waiver, so with a no vote , we have nothing to lose.

Desmond The Greek foreign debt is €300 million, Irelands foreign debt is €1.7 trillion. A huge difference, to many european banks have Billions in this country. If we could not pay our debts Banks in Frankfurt, London and Paris would fold. The Germans would not allow us to burn the bondholders in Anglo. Do you think they are going to put many banks across Europe at risk. Answer to that NO.

I can’t imagine why you might think that risking greater austerity by voting no and choking of our access to the ESM as an insurance fund for our credit-worthiness is worth it or that the public service are somehow to blame for the mess this country is in. Let’s be very clear about this, this country is in very deep crisis indeed … That’s not scaremongering, that’s the truth. If we turn our backs on the mainstream of the EU and strike out on our own we’ll soon discover just exposed we are. I’ll risk neither the economy nor our public services on such a reckless gamble.

here is the eye opener:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15748696

That has got to be irony.

How is it ironic Desmond?

Voting no to treaty and anyone but fg/lab/ff in next election! Some pundits are saying election within year and shinners 40%!! So Desmond you won’t be just tearing your hair out, but u won’t be able to wear fav blue shirt

I have listened to 5 different commentators all with expensive experience in the IMF. In all cases they said that IMF funds would not be available to a eurozone country without funding also being provided by the eurozone itself. So the Minister it seems have been telling the truth…

Anel???? Are you for real??? 40%….who is Gods name said that??? Every poll since the election has shown FG in the mid 30′s…Has not changed….Any if Eamon O’Cuiv keeps taking like he does he will frighten more FF voters away…
Can you name these pundits???

Dave .
You are dead right , I am just sick of it . All that scare mongering is appalling . Dirty tactics and scare mongering , so typical of this government . We will cut our cloth to our needs , we all know austerity can not be avoided , but I am damned that we will have auterity while bailing out the wealthy …..

and his mate beside him

Another single word. Bullshit.

Can someone from the No side tell me how will voting No equals less austerity ???

Firstly, the correction required to bring us in line with their targets will take billions more out of our soverign spend, equalling more austerity. Also, Because voting yes guarantees we can not afford to stimulate our economy and grow our way out of austerity, as we will have no money left to invest creating jobs or on capital projects.

@John Johnson: Cash flow.

Get rid of the Troika and the fools running Ireland will have to revert to normal business through the customers.

While the Troika is here they do not have to change.

Are people forgetting that if you vote yes you are giving permission to the EU/ECB to set up a bank that will become untoucable and run by more bankers who will never have to account to any law in any country – to NOBODY!! It wont matter how corrupt one of its “agents” is – they can never be prosecuted. Voting yes is voting to create a class of financial untouchables.

How can he Balance the books when billions of the “borrowed ” money is going into defunked banks to bail out “German” bond holders.
Idiots the lot of them.

I tend to agree.

He’s back.

You could say the same for Sinn Féin over their lies over the 50k worth of INK.

But if you don’t listen to the government, at least give Karl Whelan a moment of your time!

http://karlwhelan.com/blog/?p=386

Ah but SF are not in government are they David?

Thousands more like you? Surely there is only one Jimbo?

But do you think that voting no means an end to austerity? We’ll still be up to our danglers in debts that we have to repay.

Exactly…. They stand to lose much more than the rest of us…

There does exist the possibility that we will need a second bailout. Government ministers cannot openly speculate about that possibility because of the reputational damage such official speculation would do to our ability to return to the bond markets. Secondly, the existence of the certitude of funding from the ESM in the event of a second bailout helps assure the bond markets about our creditworthiness. This assurance will assist Ireland to return to the bond markets next year, by making Irish bonds more secure than they would be in the absence of access to the ESM. The ESM is effectively an insurance policy supporting our credit-worthiness. Stripping that insurance policy away as SF and others propose would severely undermine our ability to seek funding on the global markets and return some measure of economic sovereignty to this state.

If this treaty is a good idea Desmond, how come th government and ECB have to put a gun to our heads with a blakmail clause?

The only people with a record of putting guns to other people’s head are members of Sinn Fein.

So are these people on the global markets really that stupid that they would believe any and lies Enda et al try to push that we will not need another bailout? I don’t think so… what would send that message and that we are determined to be stable and pay our way is if we vote no and thus guarantee that that we have excluded ourselves from more of the same of this very expensive and economy crushing borrowing from the Germans at the ecb.

@ Desmond,
“The only people with a record of putting guns to other people’s head are members of Sinn Fein”?
Do you know anything of Irish political history?

@Desdimona

Sinn Fein – yyaaaaaaaaaawwwwwwnnnnnn!!!!!!!!!!!!

This is what really f***ks me off. The yes camp including the government can clearly see the very well defined reasons as to why it is necessary to vote no but instead of a true, factual and argumentative debate they sling mud in the hope that it sticks with the intent of changing the subject.
Yes SF yawnnnnnnnnnn

We were told that austerity is working, the cuts from the average joe and Jane are working and that because we are so good at cutting our spending in line with the terms of the troika that the markets would love to see us back at the end of 2013/14.

But what now?! We may need further bailouts and if we don’t vote yes we won’t get them?! What happens to not needing them? And if we do need a second bailout isn’t it obvious that the austerity insnt working!

The BS lies from this government and the changing of rules to suit themselves is quite unbelievable. I do not trust anything they say! I can’t. They prove themselves wrong every time!!

And FYI to the yes camp, not all people who choose to think for themselves and decide to vote no are shinners!! When will you get this through your head! I am ex FG and I am voting no. And to put the boot in I will gladly vote back in FF to get you lot out. FF happily pillaged our country from within….FG are selling us to Europe. No thanks

No to EUSSR! Vote for what’s right for the country, vote no!

So Ryan … you’d happily vote FF back in, will you! That shows just how far some people won’t face the truth of the appalling state in which FF left this country, and how they think that getting out of this mess can be pain free.

@ Desmond. The most genuine and trusted TD in the dail, Stephen Donnelly, refers to the blackmail clause put into the treaty at the last minute with the assistance of FG/Labour as ‘gunbolt politics’. Thats good enough for me. I’m voting NO because I won’t be blackmailed.

If you think a “tell-em-what-they-want-to-hear” business consultant is the most trusted TD in the Dáil then you really have been taken in … hook, line and sinker. Donnelly is wrong on how the dependency between ratification and access to the ESM was constructed … and plainly wrong on so many levels. it really does astonish me how an otherwise intelligent and reasonable commentator could be taken in by this claim.

Really? Donnelly asked Michael Noonan THREE times by mail at the meeting with the EU did he agree to the blackmail clause being inserted in the traty, and on the third attamt noonan answered that ‘he didn’t not agree to it at the meeting’. You’re being blackmailed, WE’RE being blackmailed, and you’re cheerleading the people who alowed it to happen. Hang your head.

Nonsense, trueleft. Let’s take a look at the clause you’re so fired up about. The clause says that access to the ESM fund is dependent on ratification of the Fiscal Treaty. Now Donnelly, your friendly local business consultant, tells you it’s cuz the govt sold out. Here’s another view, much more prosaic and obvious and much less dependent on wild conspiracy theories. To access the ESM you have to have paid into it, i.e. to be a contributing member. Unsurprisingly, our European partners insist that no-one gets a free ride, that everyone must abide by the same fiscal rules and be existing contributors to the fund before they make a claim on it. In what conceivable universe could that be described as “blackmail”, unless you’re the sort of person who believes in free lunches!

Take the example of your local credit union. Before you get to apply for a loan (a) you have to be a member, and (b) you have to have made deposits into an account for a period before making a loan application. On the basis of your thinking, we should be condemning credit unions for “blackmailing” citizens into membership before giving them access to loans!

We will need to continue to borrow and borrow. Call it a bailout, call it what we like. Mr Noonan has to make politically correct statements that will convey confidence and strength, so take everything they say, including IMF guys and girls with a pinch of salt. Everyone has an agenda. You have to try to make you mind up. Personally I don’t think the markets will lend everything needed to Ireland over the next decade. Forecasting how best Ireland can borrow in the future is the big challenge. Will a yes vote make it easier to borrow or will a no vote do the job?

This is my point exactly, more lies.

Where is the factual debate on the subject?! It seams that kenny is frightened of a televised debate? Why? What has he got to loose? Surely if he believes that a yes vote is nessasary then why not take it to the nation?

I’ll tell you why….because he knows it’s all BS! That’s why, he’s afraid he’ll trip over his tongue and let something slip!!

‘Mr Noonan has to make politically correct statements’

Really……..

It’s called lying!!!

What if you were being asked to vote on some issue, and in reality, the effect of a “no” vote did entail some genuinely negative consequences for the nation. Hypothetically, it could happen, right?

Would you want to be told of these negative consequences? Or would that be scare-mongering?

As long as they’re honest, of course, I have no problem with people telling me bad-things-will-happen-if-I-vote-no.

Ciaran, nobody can tell you that bad things wont happen if you vote no. Bad things are going to happen regardless of the outcome. The difference being that if you vote No things will be really bad for everyone, including the bond holders and this government, whom I’m hoping will have the good grace to step down as soon as the treaty is defeated. But then again men of honour dont lie to begin with.

AAD,

People are complaining and calling it “scare-mongering”. Why? Either the “scare-mongering” is true or false. If it’s true, we need to hear it even if it’s scary. If it’s false, then we need to hear why. Complaining about scare-mongering is just avoiding the issues.

There is a choice. Europe handed greece more money rather than risk a full soverign default in the Eurozone. Do you really think they won’t give ireland, the obedient ones, more cash to pay bac european bankers debts?

The fact is none of us know what might happen, TT. I can’t see them cutting us off totally but they might provide the extra funding at far higher rates were we to vote no.

There’s already a huge amount of resentment in countries like Germany where this treaty will be challenged in the constitutional court. So, if they don’t like it as it stands, they’ll be even less happy about funding a country that has voted down the treaty.

Like I said, I don’t like this treaty but that doesn’t mean I’m going to blindly swallow the arguments the “no” side is putting out either.

If you look at the whole thing from the top, forget it at the local level for a minute, just research the recent history of it all – start at the bank guarantee and work your way forward from there; I think you’ll find the whole thing is maddness!! The EU is frantically trying to hold the whole thing together because a lot of powerful people have an awful lot to loose if it goes belly up. That’s not to say the average joe soap won’t feel the pain when it does go belly up – everyone will, but what’s happening now is the people at the top are trying to insulate themselves from what’s coming at everyone else’s expense. That’s it plain and simple. Do the research, it’ll become obvious.

Ciaran a wise man once said to me “when in doubt – don’t” sounds like you are in doubt so??

CMD, a wiser man would have said, “When in doubt, do your utmost to inform yourself”.

Paul, you’re not wrong. If you’d told me in the summer of 2008 that we’d now be paying off enormous debts of profligate banks, I’d have said you were mad.

However, the bank debt is just one of our problems. We still have a big budget deficit to worry about.

The article if you bothered to read it said that austerity across the eurozone was a bad idea. It did say that Ireland, Spain, Italy and Portugal should roll out more austerity as our deficits are that bad.

Depends who’s working the moderation station!! Selective removal of posts happen quite frequently!!

Argentina did that and a decade later the only one who will lend to them are the IMF (with strict conditions they have to follow), and apparently half the shops in the country won’t accept the national currency, rather they will only accept US dollars. I can’t imagine thats the road we want to go down if there is any possible way to avoid it.

Damn straight. Should have rejected the treaty back in 73 that gave us the EU in the first place. After all wasn’t it Fine Gael that ran that referendum, dirty traitors so and they are.

We never needed all that CAP or Infrastructure money anyway…..

So let’s abandon democracy all together, Mark, if all that happens is that the people choose politicians you don’t like. Wonder what might replace it, so? In the meantime …..

Was that not 71?

Ah sure Norman,
u should go easy on David,
sure he wasn’t even a twinkle in his daddys eye back then :-)

RTÉ is obliged to give Sinn Féin free airtime for the next month. I think the NO side are getting quite a bit of coverage to be fair.

Sinn fein. Jesus christ no. Those muppets will screw everything up. I want economists and such like who are against this given proper airtime. If its just sinn fein and the alliance left bog people then we are screwed. Thats would not be fair.

That’s the trouble Begrudgy, it’s all those at the top who want a yes, a decent panel of no people is never going to happen. It all has to be grass roots stuff getting the message through if it’s going to succeed. You’re right, the no side is non-existent in the media. It’s shocking. I’m very worried.

Ronan, our politicians will never bring the house down. That is the job of anarchists. Very few of our politicians are radicals never mind anarchists. You’ll have to target someone willing to bust the system with your proposals. Sorry but I hope you don’t succeed in your advice adopted.

Do you not remember 1992, if we were to leave/be excluded from the euro then we will set our currency at a particular level let’s say parity with the Euro. As no one will want it and the govt will not have the resources to defend it it will plunge in value. in any event it does not suit Germany for the weaker countries to leave/be excluded so everything possible will be done to keep it together I don’t see a break up.

How can we leave the Euro if no legislation exists to leave the Euro?

If there is somehow a way to leave the euro we would immediately default which would trigger a crash in the eurozone and in the wider world.

There is no way Europe will allow that to happen so we wont be leaving the Euro!

Another scaremongering fallacy destroyed!

The ultimate irony of SF’s militant nationalism is that if we did leave the euro we would be back into the arms of Mother England and the sterling area. You couldn’t make this stuff up.

If Martin mcguinness can sit down and do business with rev Ian and the boys then re establishing link with sterling can work on all levels

At desmond. We would not necessarily be linked to ANY currency. If you have any evidence to the contrary please post it….

Oh dear God, man! In what universe do you think an Irish currency would be able to operate completely independently when default and exit from the Eurozone will have collapsed our public finances, caused a run on the banks and sent the economy into a further tailspin. The only possible way of avoiding a complete collapse in the currency would need Ireland to be firmly linked to sterling, the only other option if we left the euro. It is a measure of the hollowness of SF’s nationalist chest-beating that their opposition to the euro and demands for default would lead us back into economics dependence on England.

I understand your concern. But I think it’s an illusion that an eye will be kept on anything other than that tax intake. So many “rules” relating to the exact same things were disregarded from ACTUAL EU treaties. What makes you think this “unofficial” treaty will be more respected???
Also, the treaty doesn’t do anything to fix the problems with the Euro. It’s all posturing.

Actually Adrian, as far as I’m aware the rules will still come in to play – unless a majority of countries reject it. The difference is it won’t be part of our constitution, and it’ll remove the “mandate” that the government think they have to repeatedly fu*k you over.

Hey Paul, the argument that it won’t be respected is not an argument to vote no, if anything it should give people less to be concerned about.

It’s plainly obvious why this country isn’t crashing and burning the way countries like Greece are, cause
A:we speak English
B:even though we speak English we are still very closely tied with the eurozone, from an outside perspective that is music to an investors ears.
C:we have demonstrated an ability to apply austerity.

Voting no distances us from b and can.
PS I thoroughly thoroughly disagree with bailing out banks, but that’s unrelated to this.

Typo : I meant “distances us from b and c “

Yeah, we’ll have to agree to disagree regarding the banks et. all. No accountability – no co-operation from me.

Europe doesn’t require us to vote yet for the compact to come into effect, if it ever does given what is happening in France and Holland at the minute. What a no vote will give us is our democracy back at a country level and send a clear message to the government that what they are doing is nothing like what they promised to do while trying to get our votes and that we have not given them a mandate to sell us to indentured servitude to the Germans /ECB for ever more. over the last week EVERY politician i have heard being interviewed has managed to work in that the stability compact is vital for everything they are talking about no matter what the subject… A yes vote will guarantee us years more of austerity. A no vote will only mean that the government can’t access a second bailout that they themselves keep saying we will not need. So they will have to keep the books balanced anyway. While I can see your point about the Grant you have managed to get it will ne ultimately useless if you have to custom for your business if we are all kept in poverty the way we are at present… unless your business model includes offering food and shelter for free to he poverty stricken in this country with the promise of more to come.

Adrian I do understand where you are coming from as regards funding like county enterprise etc but what I can’t stomach is – we will be expected to keep the budget deficit on the same level as Germany or France but we are in a totally different situation. We are a small open economy depending on the like of the UK and the rest of Europe to maintain our balance of payments. So are we going to be “punished” if our budget is effected by circumstance beyond our control? Like for instance a recession in the uk? I know there have been major cock-ups by former financial regulators, central bank governors, ministers of finance etc but we Joe Soap, the taxpayer are now paying the price. So if this referendum is passed it just makes it law with France and Germany being the police. If this law were to be adapted to ensure that the “real” wrong doers are punished, end up in court, lose their pensions etc I would vote yes like a shot. But I have not seen anything to indicate this will happen. The punishment will be a fine on the country ie the ordinary taxpayer ie my children and my grandchildren so it’s NO for me. I am sick of being a patsy while the real wrong doers – Mr Noonan or his ilk still swan around scot free.

It’s wrong thing to do

So, vote No so that we’ll be able to show the world that we have some fight in us. We will also be able to show the world that we have no money to fund our public services. That’s telling ‘em. hey!

Desmond, lets cut all Dail salaries, set the max at 100k for Taoiseach, 75k for ministers, eliminate ALL tax payer funded pensions for sitting TDs, cap all government pensions at a max of 60k (and do the same for the equivalent grades and higher in the public and civil service) as a gesture to the Irish people and we might consider voting yes. This is the first austerity measure that should have been brought in, but wasn’t. The Irish people are sick of the lies and crap from FFg/Labour. They are so self serving, that yeah, we will vote NO. If FFg/Labour were patriots, they wouldn’t need me or you to tell them to do what i just asked. … They only know the color Green from the money they are taking.

Beat me to it, was going to link this.

The IMF would definitely carry higher interests and they would demands MORE austerity in return for the funds. Karl Whelan is right in this regard.

Maybe near term bout that’s much better than austerity for the next 30 years…

Vote NO….

And persuade your friends / family and any one you can to vote No… They may not be interested in politics because I know my own ma and da would vote yes cause they always do what there told by the bully boy politians but I promise not this time…. 3 Nos in our house guaranteed come 31st may

Whelan explains that we only got the enormous IMF loan in November 2010 because the EU and ECB were on board too. So, if we went cap in hand to the IMF only, then we’d get far less and that would mean far more drastic cutbacks.

And that’s a big if. Whelan says:
“Also worth remembering is that the IMF is a global organisation and many of its members already resent the use of such large amounts of money to bail out first-world European countries. The use of IMF funds to help a country that thumbed its nose at European bailout funds to then repay the Europeans would be very badly received around the world.”

The treaty doesn’t sign us up to “permanent austerity” as is claimed. There is no such thing as permanent austerity. Eventually your budget deficit is gone and the books are balanced again.

Your argument about 30 years of austerity is in relation to our debt obligations from the banking crisis. These issues are separate. The Treaty does NOT prevent us from defaulting. We can still do that if we wish.

Ok David so please tell me how many years austerity will be imposed on us..

How many years and how many billion per year… And where are you getting the figures….

Can’t u see we will never meet the terms of deficit set by this treaty if we cant grow the economy!!!! We can grow if imposing austerity….so then we get lumped with most likely large european fines for breaking the treaty rules…. This is all nuts IMO… No no no no

Can’t

Mojo,

Okay, we vote no. Late 2013, the bailout money has run out. But we’ve still got a budget shortfall of say 6%. What do we do? Where do we get the money?

Ciaran… 2 options

Balance the books immediately… 5 years on and this really should be sorted by now. Default on banking debt.

Or

You better believe EU won’t let us default…they will loan to us. If they wont lend to us the german and French banks will not get paid and that will possibly collapse the euro.

I actually prefer first option.

I’d go for the first option too! It might sort out obesity for a generation. :-)

Ciaran so we both agree borrowing many more billions won’t help us in any shape or form.

So we shouldn’t. Do a deal cut the debt level like Greece have. Move on. This treaty is not for us it traps us into austerity for many many years…. My 4 year will still be paying for this when I’m gone…. It’s there future too… Stand up to bullies here and abroad and f..k those banks who levy recklessly to us….

That’s if we vote “no”. A big bang balance-the-books-in-one-go approach would have a big human cost. But if we don’t have the money and no-one will lend us much, we’ll have little choice

Ciaran,
earlier in the thread you said u hadn’t made up ur mind.
please stop with the charade. Ur voting Yes.
Why not simply come clean about that fact.

Look at u Yes brigade.
Yis all need Mammy Merkel soooo badly im actually embarrassed for yis,
and i don’t embarrass easily.

Joe,

Why do you think I’ve decided to vote “yes”?

Looks like at least 35% of the populace so far think it is an option.If Kenny and co. keep trying on the scare tactics that % may just increase

Voting no is the only option for me. IMF will lend money. That is their sole purpose. It’s the EU/ECB axis of evil that’s the problem

Plus only the IMF out of the troika were in favour of burning bond holders .

The IMF would charge us higher interest rates and they would demand MORE austerity in return.

Sure we’d get a write-off, thus reducing our long term burden, but the next few years would get VERY painful.

Brendan
Hmmm….. maybe they should make the ballot a vote between “YES” and “definitely YES”.

@ Fine Gael David – It’s simply untrue to say that the IMF will charge a higher interest rate.

You know damn well that we we ‘negotiated’ the troika deal, we were being charged three separate interest rates, aggregated. The IMF’s interest rate was the lowest!!!

More scare mongering.

So what if the next few years will be painful. At least they’ll be painful with a purpose.

There’s only one way to take a plaster off – quickly!

@ David. At the time of the last bailout, the IMF offered LOWER interest rates, and were allowing us to burn the bondholders. Now, you want us to accept being blackmailedby the ECB in collusion with your party, rather than have to go to the guys who have been treating us better all along?

Do you really think you’re doing your party any favours by going on record with such drivel?

Aaaah you decided to give it a go then? I await the red thumbs and personal attacks you will receive for your opinion.

Ciaran Cannon. You lost me when u described Noonan as honorable etc. Tell that to the families of the hep C suffers he tried to bully up to their deathbeds. He was a bully then and is still a bully now.

Ciaran , are you mad, Noonan would be at home in China, one party ,one voice state, he wouldn’t know the truth if it hit him straight on the face .

Ciaran Cannon

I think your remark about Mehole Noonan being an honourable and trustworty person is very insulting to a lot of women in this country given his track record in the Hep C scandal. Says a lot about your sense of judgement.

Ciaran.
Yes, Karl Whelan is more truthful. Did you read the article?

In the article he says, “Clearly, Ireland can apply to the IMF if it has no other source of funding.” and goes on to argue how that might cause more austerity.

I’m voting NO to enshrining the term “structural deficit” (which has no clear definition) into our constitution, and I’m voting NO to enshrining unelected overseers from the EU having final say in our budgets. For me this is not about the immediate future but the distant one.

The “vote NO to austerity” is the normal meaningless pop-politics – it’s the left version of “vote YES for stability”

Didn’t see that coming.

Totally incorrect. If we leave the euro our currency will be devalued, meaning a BOOST in exports.

the opposite is true. not that we could be forced out if the euro as there is no mechanism for that. But if we chose to leave we could set our currency value at a true rate which would be mush lower than it is now and our exports would boom. Our only problem would then be that our imports like oil would become even more expensive as they are paid in Dollars.

I own an import / export business. We export to all EU Countries – hundreds of business like mine would be gone, higher costs of imports and a useless currency to trade against the Euro.

show me the mechanism for leaving the Euro?

You see no such mechanism or legal framework exists.

So less of the scaremongering and actually debate the real issues and not nonsense.

Senan,

I’m not an expert in this area, however if we fail to ratify the treaty an exit from the Euro could be possible –

The mechanism –

Country with Significant Debt, Inability to borrow from the markets, fails to ratify treaty, fails to borrow “cheap money” from Europe, defaults on massive debt, ……. fill in the blanks.

Is this not enough to exit the Euro?

Thanks mark for trying to put a fact on the table. For devaluation to be a benefit, the increase volume in exports have to be greater than the effect of the decrease in currency value. As many goods won’t sell more due to a price reduction, devaluation is likely to negatively impact the margins of exporters and hence their ability to grow.

Actually Mark, there is NO mechanism for a country leaving the euro. Thats just a fact.