We don’t write this law into our constitution, we just write the permission for the government to rarity it.

Rarity indeed.

:) ratify even

And by the way I agree with everything u say and look we can’t even get anywhere near 3% never mind 0.5%….

Its simply Insane to think we can achieve 0.5% with the current debt load of the banks around our necks….

MofoRise I do think we can do it as I’ve seen people crunch the numbers.
For example here’s the economist Seamus Coffey explaining how we can meet those targets by with just inflation and nominal growth. I have a spreadsheet using the real figures from the 1980’s, when things were pretty crappy here, and this still works.
http://economic-incentives.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/whats-on-table.html

hehe I’m getting downvoted for stating the simple fact we don’t add this treaty to our constitution, we only add permission for the government to ratify it. Is the truth so bad?

Gary, red thumbs mean more than real facts ever could!

Gary, you left out a few important facts about those numbers you crunched.

There was a claim that we only need “nominal” growth and a low level of inflation to get back on track. Also, it was pointed all that we had only failed to reach these levels 6 times in the history of the State. Great! It all sounds very achievable.

One small problem, which you keep leaving out. 4 of those 6 times have been during the present crisis. Would there be any connection do you think?

Please answer this question before you start accusing others of being dishonest, and making selective quotes.

@Gary…. Your persistent I give u that much… Good lad….. You really can’t expect anyone to take u serious… Growth my backside…. All were getting from now in is cuts…AUSTERITY…. Cuts….cuts….. In fact the only thing that won’t be cut are politicians salaries… will u please do us a favor and stop the BS please…

No to state the obvious there trueleft but we are in a bailout program after one of the biggest property bubbles in history, so of course we’ve had some bad years. But for the figures to be wrong we have to assume the absolute worst and quite frankly if things are that bad the fiscal treaty will be the least of our worries.

clowry, this treaty would give the govt aka the e.u aka germany the right to bypass ANY part of our constitution as they see fit without ever having to ask our permission via a referendum.. how in gods name can you see that as being ok?

Mairead. I don’t know what to say to you really…. what you’re saying is so far from the facts it’s actually incredible. You could actually have got it more right by writing some random text on a piece of paper and throwing a dart at it.

Over 65s are the largest YES demographic. They always come out to
Vote.

Blueshirts out in force with their scaremongering i see.

David i see that your buddies and comrades in fg/ff/lab are once again preying ans scaring the old folks to get your next shot in the arm….

Ridiculous… IMO Politics has to be the route of all evil…. Nothing would make me more happy if yeah all didn’t wake up in the morning….

Lads is there *any* chance you could play the ball and not the man. The no camp are really terrible for always bringing it back to personal attacks.

David would love what planet your living on. You won’t be happy till we are part of a federal states of Europe.

The older generations are the yes vote anyway. It seems they are used to doing as they are told, be it the church or the government doing the telling.

Don’t vote yes out of fear. After all the broken promises of FG and the several nonsense ‘solutions’ from Brussels and Berlin to fix this crisis, its an easy No.

@Mojo
Money and greed are the root of all evil; It would seem our politicians are definitely money loving greedy so and so’s!

Well apparently my friends in the nursing homes have already had someone come around and collect their votes..
I sincerely hope those boxes are well sealed..

There is a “no” majority among 25-34 year olds.

Hopefully the older generations will consider that, and think about who’s going to have to pay for the consequences if (like Greece) we ratify this treaty.

If the Irish people are not ready to stick up for themselves and negotiate a better deal, then why should our young people stick around to pay for the sins of their predecessors?

@Choooon agree with ya 100%

@censored the old and may i say more so the 50 something’s unfortunately don’t seen to care who has to pay for this… they know it is the younger ones alright who be left to pay but from what I see including my own folks there just not for debating….. There so brainwashed with RTE and lying politicians it’s almost totally unbelievable. They are IMO very selfish indeed…

Come on people we do need to vote no… And as I said in the past we have to try and persuade our nearest and dearest…. Gluck everyone

Greek exit would cost in excess of €1 trillion and result in ECB insolvency, according to economic advisor. He also suggests eurobonds as an incentive for fiscal restraint and restructuring.
http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-25/dallara-says-greek-euro-exit-may-exceeed-1-trillion-euros.html

So where did these 40 top economists say there was no housing bubble and we’d have a soft landing? I’d love to read that link.

Brian Lucey. Soft landing. Google.

censored. To save you some trouble here I’m not suggesting nobody said it, some did say it. But the claim above was this… “90% of Irish economists said there was no housing bubble. 90% of Irish economists said that we would have a soft landing.” So I’m waiting for this list of 90% of our economists who said it.

Aside from Morgan Kelly and David McWilliams, the celebrity economists were either enthusiastically endorsing the soft landing idiocy or … silent, perhaps unable to get media time. I draw my conclusion.

Oooh, well spotted John. Go straight to the top of the class. :)

The scaremongering is as obvious as it is disgusting but I have been waiting ages for somebody to mention the corrupt media sources who are feeding the electorate a diet of hogwash and political bitching.

How come there has been no independent economic opinion on the proposed treaty. David McWilliams might as well not exist and nobody has asked the opinion of the man who predicted the global economic disaster in the first place, namely Nouriel Roubini, as to what he thinks of the proposed legislation or the future of Europe.

Even The Journal has avoided informed opinion in favour of mediocre politicians and business world “celebrities” like O’Leary and Nora Casey.

Good ole’ John. He complains about scaremongering from his opponents before doing a bit of scaremongering himself in the last sentence.

Oh good grief. I don’t know what’s worse… that you believe this rubbish or that you’re trying to make other people believe it.

Ok Gary, once you find yourself in a position where you can actually make a decision – get back to me!! :-) and maybe then we can teach you how to be individual!

Niall. You said a load of stuff that isn’t actually happening and when I called it for the nonsense it is you rambled on with some other nonsense. Don’t ever let those standards drop, we’d miss them.

where was that now? genuinely curious.

So you want a NO vote for MORE austerity!

Well .. maybe just a little taste of austerity for you and your fellow travellers David.

David is gonna take one for the party!!

vote yes. David needs petrol for his chauffeur driven limo.

Dr. Gurdgiev explains why one-size-fits-all fiscal policy will not work.
“Consider for example two economies currently in a crisis – Ireland and Portugal. Portugal requires severe and substantial cuts in all public spending and then deep reforms in the private sectors of its economy. The country does not need a debt restructuring, but it needs huge capital injections to put it onto the path of capital investment convergence with the euro area average.

In contrast, Ireland needs restructuring of the private sector debts, deep reforms on the current expenditure side of the Irish exchequer, and more gradual reforms in the private sectors. Ireland has a functional exports generating economy, it has achieved current account surpluses on external side and balance on its Government spending side in the past. During the adjustment, Ireland needs structural reductions in the current spending best timed to start concurrently with the pick up in private sector jobs creation to offset adverse effects of these reforms on the most vulnerable – the unemployed. Ireland also needs to boost its after tax returns to human capital in the medium term – something that Portugal has no need for at this point in time.

There is nothing within the Pact that would facilitate either Portuguese or Irish economic stabilization and recovery. Neither will the Pact improve the chances of Spain, Belgium and Italy ever reaching real growth paths that imply sustainability of fiscal and external balances. In short, the Pact our Government so eagerly subscribed to is at the very best a continuation of the status quo. At its worst, Ireland and other member states of the Euro are now participants to a fiscal suicide pact, having previously signed up to a monetary straightjacket as well.”

Na na don’t give in…. It’s never to late to win and lose… Ask sean Gallagher :)

I predict a surge for the No side when people actually use there brain and think about this in the hours before the referendum I.e. just before they go to vote…. Vote no… Wait for the final text of this treaty and wait till the second referendum is put to us. We will also hopefully by that stage have a deal on the bank debt.

This treaty is all about allowing our masters tap more money for themselves… Like pigs to the trough….

You know I’d like to go one whole day without seeing someone who disagrees with the no camp called a sheep or an idiot etc. Or what the hell maybe they’d stop talking about changes to the treaty when those changes don’t actually exist. And sure maybe they’d be honest and openly admit they’d still vote no to a new treaty even if it was changed.
But then again sure we have Sinn Fein who’ve asked us to vote no to every single agreement we’ve ever made with Europe still being seen as a credible source.

Gary, of course Sinn Fein have been against every EU referendum. Their very reason for being is for the formation of a sovereign 32 county nation. Inviting interference from, and handing fiscal sovereignty over to Berlin and Brussels goes against everything they stand for. Unlike FianaGaeLab they stick with their core principles and are not willing to sell them off to the highest bidder.

So lets see if I get this Ann. You’re saying it’s okay for Sinn Fein (a pro-EU party according to them) to be against every single last agreement we’ve ever had with Europe because they want a 32 Republic. So Sinn Fein are against an organisation that has done more to bring people together than any other in the European history, because they want to bring our full Island together. Right… not seeing the logic there at all.
Also I can’t help but notice all this sovereignty we supposedly keep losing was used by us to inflate a massive property bubble to wreck the place. It really boggles my mind that people are told *the exact same things* by Sinn Fein since 1973 and are still swallowing it.

Gary – property bubble has nothing to do with me. Are you saying that the EU is the organisation that has brought “people together”. If so I agree with you but only in so far as it has brought the working classes in Europe together into a state of poverty.

gary you say changes to the treaty dont actually exist, I hate to break it to you but neither does the ESM exist…and I do believe the yes side are using this as their main reason for voting yes….

Sinead. I think what you mean is the treaty establishing the ESM has not been signed yet. On the other hand potential changes to the fiscal treaty do not exist. Sorry if you can’t see the difference.

hasnt been signed yet so as of yet it doesnt exist, i never said it wouldnt exist or there were no plans to make it exist just stating the fact that as I write now it does not exist…and that is a fact whatever way you want to sugar coat it

going by comments and likes and dislikes on articles by the journal, the no side is at 70% and the yes side is at 30%.

Gary can I ask you again about the accountability/unaccountability clause…just explain to me again why this is included and why as you say it is OK….

Germany’s Die Welt notes the battle of the begging bowls at the recent summits:
“Irlands Finanzminister Michael Noonan und sein portugiesischer Kollege Vítor Gaspar zwangen den griechischen Kollegen in den Schwitzkasten: “Ihr verderbt die Sache für uns alle”, ließen sie ihn beim jüngsten Finanzministertreffen wissen. “Wir tun alles, um die Programme umzusetzen. Tut ihr das nicht, müssen wir dafür zahlen”, redeten sie auf EU-Botschafter Theodoros Sotiropoulos ein, wie portugiesische Medien berichteten.
Die Angst ist riesig, dass die Griechen die ebenfalls unter Troika-Aufsicht stehenden Portugiesen und Iren mit sich reißen. Beim Sondergipfel der Staats- und Regierungschefs am Mittwochabend in Brüssel konnte Bundeskanzlerin Angela Merkel daher auf zwei Verbündete zählen, die von Athen verlangen, Wort zu halten: auf Enda Kenny, den irischen Regierungschef, und den portugiesischen Premierminister Pedro Passos Coelho.
Translation:
Ireland’s finance minister Micheal Noonan and his Portuguese colleague Vitor Gaspar grabbed their colleague from Greece in a headlock: “You’re ruining the whole thing for all of us”, they let him know at the latest meeting of finance ministers. “We do everything to implement the programs: If you don’t, all of us will pay for it”, they told EU ambassador Theodoros Sotiropoulos as Portuguese media reported.
The fear is great that the Greeks will take the Portuguese and Irish that are also under the supervision of the ‘troika’ with them. At the special summit of the heads of state and governments on Wednesday evening in Brussels, chancellor Angela Merkel was therefore able to count on two allies who demand that Athens keep its word: Enda Kenny the Taoiseach of Ireland and the Portuguese prime minister Passos Coelho.”

Sinead. Again the treaty which creates the ESM exists and is just not signed yet. The new fund won’t exist until the treaty is signed. These changes that you guys keep talking about for the Fiscal compact do not exist at all. If it amuses you to be pedantic work away. I’ve seen some pretty bad tactics from the no camp so this is fairly minor.

Niamh. hehe Why I say it’s okay? Because it is okay. The immunity they have only exists in so far as they conduct their work within their frame of reference. That is to say if they do anything dodgy or illegal or outside of their frame of reference they are completely liable for it. Why the hell should anyone have an issue with people who’s only immunity is doing their jobs exactly to the letter as their supposed to do their jobs. The immunity exists in these international agreements only because the staff are working in so many different countries that is would be incredibly messy legally otherwise.

@Gary On behalf of all of those who are opposed to this treaty, thank you. You turn those who are undecided towards no, more and more every day.

PJ Brennan. Facts are not welcomed around these parts, they seem to interfere with the ‘EU eats babies’ rubbish that goes on every day.

Gary, do you still believe Enda when he says he didnt know Denis O’Brien was going to be meeting him at the NYSE event a few weeks back? Or are you going to wake sup and stop listening to the bull that FFg/Labour are selling you everyday? Kenny has been caught out on another lie. Did you read the Indo article highlighting the fact that O’Brien was announced 12 days in advance to be one of the High profile guests to be meeting Enda that day?

Cal. I have absolutely no idea if Enda Kenny knew Denis O’Brien was going to be there or not. Though I’d say two things… 1. I have no idea what this has to do with the Fiscal treaty. 2. Denis O’Brien (for better or worse) is one of our main business people so I don’t find it surprising he was there to begin with.

Gary, Kennys credibility is everything to the Don’t Knows in Ireland…. The Indo ran the story this morning showing that Kenny was sent the guest list 12 days in advance of the meeting. If kenny can lie through his ass about this, and wont debate on live tv with adams about the treaty (he needs a teleprompter and multiple script writers), then why should the dont knows be swayed to Kenny side on any of this.

Cal. You’re assuming that Enda Kenny knew Denis O’Brien was going to be there. Even if he did get a list, did he read or did his assistant read it? Sorry but you’re assuming he’s lying without any proof and then saying we shouldn’t believe ‘*anything* he says about anything from that assumption. As I said I really couldn’t care less if Denis O’Brien was there or not. And I really don’t care if he debates with Gerry Adams or not. I can’t honestly say I’ve listened to a single thing Enda Kenny has said about the treaty, I’ve listened to the best people I could find. I’m happy to vote Yes. Any more red herrings?

Niamh. http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056652789
For people who think the ESM is immune from all sorts why not go to this thread and ask about it.

Gary, you are entitled to vote anyway you want…
You made a statement that you support facts.
You said you dont listen to Kenny and co, and that you make you own mind up about things.
Did you happen to read the Nobel prize winning economist that said Ireland should vote No to this compact, or do you believe he is ignorant of the facts?

Without directly quoting any of the usual sources or soundbites, give a few reasons of your own as to why you think that voting Yes is the only way forward.

Ireland’s Own, you truly are a cretin.

That is all.

That depends where you want to go yes is the only way forward for increased taxes, poverty, franking and mass emigration. No is the only way forward for accountability and sovereignty I hope u have fluent German to understand your orders.

Ah, this would be the plurality and inclusiveness I’ve heard so much about. It is everything that I hoped it would be.

This is gone past economics….this is about Irish people taking back control of OUR COUNTRY!!! The economists are basing their views on our dire need to be accepted by Europe … We have to be a country once again , not a state!

Taking back control of YOUR country? Please tell me, when did YOU ever have control over YOUR own country? You say your elected officials are not respecting the wishes of the people, so you have an election and vote in another set of politicians who, as you say immediately afterwards, do not respect the wishes of the people. And now you say you want to say no in a referendum because it would take control from these politicians and hand it to a shadowy European elite who will not respect the wishes of the people. You are sadly offering very few compelling arguments to entice me to vote No. You offer very few incentives for me to vote at all.

100% of Irish economists whose salaries are paid by the Government are backing the treaty :D

“The survey included comments from professors of economics and full time economics lectures in economic departments of Irish universities but did not include economists “working in the media or in banks or other financial institutions”. The survey also did not include economists “working in government departments or agencies or in employer or trade union organisations”.

But wait I forgot that everyone is biased against the no campaign, except when they agree with the no camp.

Let see where your argument falls down. “Nine out of ten of “Irelands leading economists”. Firstly the term “leading economists” is subjective. Who decided that these acadmeics are leaders in their field. Secondly ONLY 44 academic economists bothered to respond to the survey. Those 44 only make up a small minority in the percentage of economists that actually work in Ireland. Out of the 20,000 people who work in the IFSC, how many do you think are economists? For every one of those economic lecturers who say vote yes, there is one that works in the real world that will say vote no. Dont you put any sway behind the fact that 2 Nobel prize winning economists have said that the fiscal compact is unworkable. And tell me this Gary, there are what 4.5 million people in the republic, when you take out the kids and the retired, that probably brings us down to 3 million. How the bloody hell are 3 million people supposed to pay back 200 billion to the ECB / ESM??

Yes Gary. Just like I said – or have our Universities suddenly managed to obtain independent funding?

Here is an analysis from an independent economist who has been deemed a “leading” economist *independently* by international recognition. He thinks the fiscal compact is economic suicide for Europe.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/16/opinion/krugman-europes-economic-suicide.html

However, nobody on the “yes” including those economists you mention is willing or able to respond to his points.

censored. So as long as we believe that all these economists are being effectively paid off and have no professional ethics we can ignore what they say. Anyone else who disagrees with you we should think is corrupt?

Nice deflection. Evading the question AGAIN, Gary?

No I didn’t evade anything. We have a report here which says 90% of the economists surveyed, all based here in Ireland, are looking for a Yes vote. Instead of actually dealing with that you’ve just decided they are all being paid off in some way. Just like that.

Still not answering the question :D

censored. This the question you’re talking about? “have our Universities suddenly managed to obtain independent funding?”. I’ll try and spell this out to you again. The only way the question is even relevant is if we believe that almost 40 of our top economists are willing to tell porkies about this treaty. Two I could believe, 5 maybe, go nuts and say 10…but 40? That’s your point? I didn’t think such a patently ridiculous question needed an answer.

Nope, it’s where is the response to Krugman and all the other economists who are calling this treaty “economic suicide”?

See up above in relation to Krugman: ‘However, nobody on the “yes” including those economists you mention is willing or able to respond to his point’.

Funnily enough, this is a clear trend. Whelan said the economics of the treaty are terrible but “on balance” we should vote yes. His weasel words are on his blog for all to read. Nobody on the yes side wants to explain how this treaty is going to deal with the economic problems we face in Europe. They just avoid the issue like Enda Kenny refusing to debate it.

censored. I’ve said this multiple times. All the fiscal limits in this treaty are already in existing agreements we’ve previously sign up to, some from 20 years ago. Nobody mentioned anything about them being ‘economic suicide’ before. And I can’t help but notice you’ll happily say 40 of our top economists are being paid off and wrong but will accept what one American says. I posted how we can meet the targets in the treaty with just inflation and nominal growth but you choose to ignore that too, even though that’s from one of our top economists.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2012/0525/1224316662766.html
“Ireland does not have to meet the structural deficit target in 2015. An adjustment period will be negotiated and will be tailored to individual country circumstances. Also, because we will have several years to meet the target, even under conservative assumptions, economic growth will bridge the gap and no additional austerity will be required.”

http://www.independent.ie/opinion/analysis/seamus-coffey-david-mcwilliams-analysis-of-private-debt-is-stark-but-it-also-100pc-wrong-3000117.html
“DAVID McWilliams wrote an article for Wednesday’s Irish Independent under the heading “Private debt so enormous that default is only option”. The conclusion is stark: In Ireland, given the magnitude of the debt, it is very clear to me that only a fraction of this household and corporate debt will be actually paid off. The figures scream default.

The figures in the piece do indeed scream default, but the figures are wrong. 100pc wrong.

Studies have shown that an appropriate maximum ratio of mortgage debt to gross household income is around four. The data provided in the McWilliams article indicate that total debt in Ireland is more than eight times Gross National Product, a widely used measure of national income. For countries it has been argued that they should not have a debt greater than three times national income.

If Irish debt were eight times national income, Ireland would indeed be bust and there would be no way the debt could even be carried, never mind paid off. With such a debt burden default would indeed be an inevitable outcome.

However, Irish debt is actually around four times national income and using figures 100pc greater than this is misleading. The data come from the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) who try to use gross and unconsolidated data as a measure of overall indebtedness. This can lead to unusual results.”

It’s not just about this treaty Gary and you know it – otherwise why keep citing the fact that these limits are already in existing treaties?

It’s an endorsement of the policies that are patently not working. Even Holland wasn’t able to manage this. Why are we different?

You’re still evading the real question btw. Why is there no debate on these topics in Ireland? Why are our “leading economists” not responding to the points raised by Krugman and others?

As for the 90%. Not saying you’re mathematically wrong. But where were these guys? The ones who didn’t vocally support the soft landing idiocy were silent – apart from Morgan Kelly. Silence implies agreement.