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GE2024rotation once againA RETURN OF coalition based around Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael is likely if the exit poll results are borne out tomorrow.
The top three parties are all tied on similar support, according to an exit poll commissioned by RTÉ, The Irish Times, TG4, Trinity College Dublin and carried out by Ipsos B&A.
So now what?
With these figures, and noting the margin of error, it is pretty much deadlock.
Government formation talks could prove tricky, but there is a path back to power for Simon Harris and Micheál Martin, if they choose it.
That raises the question of the rotating Taoiseach model and whether that could be back on the cards.
Both Harris and Martin have said they want to lead, with both men also indicating they would want the first go at being Taoiseach if the model was repeated.
However, there is still a three-way race on who will come out as the largest party in the Dáil.
A third or possibly fourth party could be needed to prop up a government led by Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.
The more parties you have, the more unstable the next government could be. It was reported during the campaign that Labour and the Social Democrats were being eyed up as possible replacements for the Greens.
The poll shows Sinn Féin on 21.1% which is a drop of 3.4% since the general election in 2020.
Meanwhile, Fine Gael is at 21%, 0.1 increase on 2020, while Fianna Fáil comes in at 19.5% which is a fall off of 2.7% on five years ago.
A reminder of the exit poll results for other parties:
While Fine Gael had a poor campaign, Simon Harris will likely be happy to be coming in higher than Fianna Fáil, though Micheál Martin, who has made it very clear over the years that he is not a fan of polls, will be eagerly looking at the actual results tomorrow and hoping tonight’s poll is an underestimation.
These figures make for good reading for Sinn Féin, but with both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil already ruling out even talking to the party, it looks very unlikely, though not impossible, for Sinn Féin to form the next government.
The only real way forward would be for Sinn Féin to cobble together left-leaning coalition, which is unlikely, or for Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin to join forces.
However, speaking on RTÉ this evening, Fianna Fáil’s director of elections, Jack Chambers has said nothing has changed in terms of their position on Sinn Féin since the polls closed, stating that there is a clear incompatibility between their parties’ policy platforms.
Martin did previously rule out going into government with Fine Gael, and look how that turned out. So, could this election result force him into a room for talks with Mary Lou McDonald?
The exit poll results are still hugely notable and mean forming a government will be even trickier than might have been assumed in the latter days of the campaign.
But if there is a path for Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, one can assume that is the preference of Martin and Harris right now.
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If the lazy pr###s who didn’t bother to exercise their right to vote actually voted, this result would be different! In future, those of you who complain but don’t vote, shut up, you don’t have the right to express an opinion in my view.
@Andrew Kenny:
What was the turnout?
@Garry Coll: Around 50%. Disgraceful.
@Andrew Kenny: half the voters didn’t even put pencil to paper??? That’s a shocking inditement
@Andrew Kenny: Absolutely right Andrew. It might be that they are happy with Santa Claus payments and don’t give a F about the rest of the year. Anybody who has a rant about immigration, housing, lack of proper amenities etc, should have a rethink and ask the question…… Instead of others being the problem, are they themselves the problem???.. I’m sure they will only have to look in the mirror to find the answer.
@Frank Mc Carthy: shocking! Like your spelling.
@Andrew Kenny: Maybe a lot of people didn’t want to vote for any of these tossers.
@FlipBip: this comment is such a cop out. We are blessed to be living in a country where people have a right to vote. A right to make a choice. Take that right away and you end up living in a country with a dictator, with no choice. Voter apathy is infuriating and shows nothing but ignorance.
@Andrew Kenny:
Any link to that?
@Topgun: Drama queen.
@Topgun: Lol and what about the apathy and ignorance shown by those who keep voting for the same clowns over and over again? Save some anger for them. The system is broken and won’t be fixed by voting, sorry to say.
@Topgun: The right to vote is not taken away if a person chooses not to do so. Your dictatorship rants makes no sense at all and shows your own level of ignorance.
@Andrew Kenny: Do you know that for sure?
@FlipBip: that’s their vote, their choice. That’s democracy. If you want to change the outcome go out and vote.
@damien leen: what an excellent, articulate response. You sound like a SF voter.
@Topgun: My vote doesn’t matter
@Sun Rise: the point is that if we had no vote it would be a dictatorship. But you knew that.,right? We live in a democracy so vote and accept the result.
@FlipBip: I’m beginning to think you could be on to something here.
@Andrew Kenny: cut their dole and they might vote
They are basically one party now, anything to hold onto power, they believe in nothing but absolute power and that’s why the country’s a mess
@Dave G Doe: 60% of the electorate didn’t vote for them.
If the exit poll is right then this has been a very poor election for Fianna Fáil. Given the issues Sinn Féin have had and the disastrous campaigning from Simon Harris, most within FF would have expected their party to win the most 1st preference votes. Micheál Martin must surely come under pressure from within when the dust settles.
@Dave G Doe:” anbsoltue” train crash of the english language:)
@Dave G Doe: 5 years of lies from fffg you mean
If either Harris or Martin become Taoiseach, in a very short time they will be getting the Kier Starter treatment from the voters.
Their media partners will try and protect them, but it won’t take much to tip the scale.
Why then did people vote for their parties, is a valid question.
People are set in their ways I suppose, and the alternatives were a fairly fractured group without a cohesive message, constantly portrayed as extremist headers.
But that will be cold comfort for Harris or Martin should the exit poll prove accurate, one of them forms a government, and then the electorate turns on them in the New Year.
@Garry Coll: Irish people have the political version of Scientology syndrome….local and selfish issues dominate,mixed in with family traditions were a sad lot really..
@David Cotter: 100% they tut tut at every scandal and corruption that’s uncovered unless its the illegal intervention of their local guy to fast track a problem they have. i.e. corruption in my favour is ok:)
If this shower get back into power then shame on anyone who gave them a vote. You obviously ,like FFG, don’t give a damn what happens to this country. Shame also on people who didn’t bother to vote. Your absence will ensure the mayhem these 2 gits and their parties have caused will continue.
@Gerry Lamont: Some people have made better choices than you in life Gerry and as a result they are in a decent position. They lived under te sa.e governments as you. Take personal responsibility for the miserable life you have.
So it’s rinse & repeat. Turn off the lights on your way out Irelands youth. Anyone who is under 30 on less than 100k can kiss any notions of any real meaningful , enjoyable existence in Ireland (95% of the U-30’s) for another 4-6 years.
Well done boomers. You’ve protected your notional property values for another few years. The ladder is well and truly pulled up after you now.
Well done greenie voters. You must really enjoy meaningless, socialist taxes hiding under the scientifically unsubstantiated climate change reasoning. Can’t wait for €3 per litre diesel. Great job.
What a farce of nation.
@Des Daly: “Well done boomers”. Indeed. The self entitled generation of today could take a leaf from our book. Grit and hard work got us to where we are. The “ladder” is always there but the will and determination to climb it has apparently vanished.
@Mies Valkenburg: property purchase maths do not add up the same with the current generation as it does for the boomer generation. This is an inescapable FACT. Boomers could purchase a house for 3-4 times the national industrial wage. In 2024 purchasing a house is 10 times the national minimum wage average. Also the current generation have to listen to the boomers gas lighting & empathy vacuous statements like “back in our day” or “other people are doing it”. So yeah. Well done with that ladder.
@Des Daly: what was the alternative? A SF party whose maths doesn’t add up?
promises the world but won’t say where money is going to come from.
don’t get wrong i think FFFG are useless but a safer bet than alternative.
@Des Daly: Oh please! I was nearly forty when I bought my first house in this country. This is after returning from working overseas for nearly twenty years. I didn’t sit at home in my parent’s spare room and whine about the unfairness of it all. The “current generation”, as you call it, don’t appear have the wit or the nous to improve their situation. Evidently, begrudgery is still our most famous trait.
with the low turn out i reckon the margin of error might a bit larger this time.interesting to see how it pans out.
@MHM:
What was the turnout?
@Garry Coll: around 50%
@Gillian OCoinne: A sad reflection on a on democratic system that has been undermined and basically kneecapped by powerful vested interests. It suits the Haves that many less well off people don’t vote. Not just here, worldwide.
@Daniel Gilroy: I was a polling clerk today and the elderly and middle aged came out to vote. No sign of young people or young professionals. Very disappointing to witness the poor turnout and the age demographic of voters.
@Topgun: we need elections in colder weather::)
@Gillian OCoinne:
Any link to that figure.
The likely outcome unfortunately will probably be a centre-left to left-wing establishment coalition of Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil, Labour and the Social Democrats. It’s a sad reflection on our society that this is the best that we can muster up. Someday, there will be a transformational leader in the mould of Javier Milei who will run for election in Ireland with a fresh new party and will win. Then we will finally see and end to the stale leftist policies that have had a stranglehold on this nation and we will begin to finally flourish with proper free-market capitalist policies in place.
@Frank O’Hara: just like where, for example?
@Frank O’Hara: go back to bed there hon , your tablets should kick in any minute now
@Frank O’Hara: what,
leftist policies? f
FFG are centre right to right wing.
So nothing changes if this happens well done people of ireland don’t complain again you didn’t change
@Dave G Doe: can you show us on the doll where leo touched you?
@Dave G Doe: its ok if you cant say…but we are here for you.
@Dave G Doe: over change
Great news. No Sinn Fein in government again. Well done Ireland.
Lads we’re sheep, Time to bring in fining you for not voting, FF and FG are back at the table with Liebour, Greedy Greens and few independents who are former members of the above parties.
@Dave G Doe: so you want to be taxed further and erode more rights at work. We as TAXPAYERS might as well as sign up en-mass to be on the dole as your minded there and you every thing handed to you for free. Eg: Housing, Healthcare, Free Travel.
As expected. FF and FG with a new mudguard, probably either Labour or SD or maybe both.
FG, FF, Lab and the Greens.
@P. J.: FF, FG, SD
@Topgun: if SD prop up FFG they will not exist in next election
@P. J.: ff fg and Labour same old grind again but if greens are back in even worse so, not enough voted and not enough are waking up to reality, just fear of the unknown which is asleep at the wheel.
@Topgun:
Certainly possible but I think SD, just like lab, could be a few short, hence the greens who have said will join any government.
@Paddy C:
I have a question, why do so many commentators on here assume that if more people voted it would have been good for the opposition? It could just as easily have led to more for FFG.
Sounds to me like the losers in this election are desperately trying to find an excuse for that loss.
Poor old mehole. FF knives will be out
@David Cotter: Good, he’s an odious individual.
@David Cotter: As the man said, he’s proper funked now. Hahaha
@David Cotter:
Michael Martin has been the leader of FF for almost 14 years, he will his get 2.5 years as top man and then retire.
Yay…5 more years of the cartel…high energy bills, endless queues at hospitals, out of control house & rent prices, attack on freedom of speech & children being exposed to pornography, democracy in action, wonderful isn’t it.
@Dave G Doe: is that “G” for Gimp?
@ron don: thought the G was for Gowl?
@ron don: gripped… obsessed.. his comments are getting a tad creepy.
Listen, I’m gay so my opinion matters more. That’s all I have to say on the matter.
@Stephen: Hi sailor ;)
@Anthony Curran: I run a small academy for lobsters.
No one can complain in future months about government policies, The people have spoken and shown their low intellect, if FFG and the greens are elected its time to put up and shut up.
@087 bed: in my view theres 3 demographics that keep FFG in control.the civil service, who want corruption to continue for financial gain, the SME sector who get break employment laws at will without consequence and pensioners who are told by RTE that anyone else is bad.
@Dave G Doe: why?
@Dave G Doe: you went on hunger strike?
@Dave G Doe: you should be ashamed of yourself for a comment like that
This is not democracy
my prediction is 65 seats for SF, mehole martin will be in a plane crash and wake up on an island where everyday he finds a message in a bottle on the beach telling him his property tax is overdue, on the same flight simon harris will wake up in a residential care unit with his boss telling him he’s not doing enough…..forever.. Just before they learn the errors of their ways, Trump nukes New York and howth over planning permission for the new golf course……wait is this a fever dream?
@Dave G Doe: i voted for fg btw
@Dave G Doe: i run a small political think tank and from the data we have gathered 95% of fine gael members are gay or bi sexual so we look forward to our continued collaboration with the fine gael party in going forward for our policies for future elections and a rebranding of fine gael to fine gay.
The show is almost over but I don’t think the fat lady will be singing.
This rotating Taoiseach thing will eventually make the people of Ireland wake up. Essentially they are now one party but the share out of the goodies is keeping them apart. Eventually the people will get fed up of this. In the meantime we must accept our money being confiscated, then wasted, and feasted upon. There’ll be some party with the Apple money for those in the circle.
My blood in the USA are so full off their corrupt that they think been irish is a way out not anymore
The biggest party who fot the most votes… should govern..this coalition shit is just wrong
They will carve it up between themselves forever.
You did it again people.
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