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THE CENTRAL BANK has raised concerns that the Irish economy could be massively negatively impacted by trade or tax changes Donald Trump could makes when he returns to the White House.
The financial regulator’s director of economics Robert Kelly has said that any major change to tax or trade arrangements by the US would “pretty much instantly put Ireland into quite a significant [budget] deficit – about 3% down to 2027″.
The Central Bank cannot yet quantify the potential scale of the impact, Kelly added, as it’s not yet clear which areas may be hit with tariffs by the incoming President of the United States.
Trump has long suggested that he would introduce a number of large tariffs on the EU and other neighbouring countries, arguing that nations are “ripping off” the US. He has promised to impose sweeping tariffs as soon as he takes office next month.
Some American business owners welcome Trump’s protectionist promises, while others, who trade or import their goods to and from abroad, are concerned.
Meanwhile, international economies are discussing methods to counteract any potential economic shocks.
Last month, Canadian premier Justin Trudeau visited Trump’s Florida residence to try and convince him to hold off on large trade tariffs.
While Ireland’s next Taoiseach may also contemplate a round trip to Mar-a-Lago, Kelly suggests Ireland has more breathing room than other countries.
Kelly said while there is currently a large amount of trade uncertainty, the Irish economy has managed to build a significant buffer in the public finances. This would mean, in short, that any economic shocks would not be immediately felt in Ireland.
But any potential changes on the US side must be met with “immediate action” to change the patterns in day-to-day expenditure or to alter, and likely increase, Irish tax rates to compensate for lost income, Kelly warned.
He detailed that the Irish economy is massively reliant on corporation tax receipts, which return a roughly €15 billion windfall annually.
As a result, the Central Bank has again suggested that the state broaden the tax base to boost revenue from many different areas.
Separately, Kelly said he was of the opinion that most of all windfall tax receipts should, ideally, be put into the state investment funds to protect the delivery of future infrastructure protects, primarily.
According to today’s final Central Bank bulletin, the economy grew 0.5% more than projected in the final quarter of 2024.
Very strong growth in employment and inflation rates falling slightly quicker than expected led to the stronger-than-expected economic report, with the regulators expecting that that momentum will carry over into next year and continue.
Next year will likely see an increase in investment, particularly in housing.
Central Bank estimates, however, suggest that 43,500 homes will be completed by 2027 – lower than what is needed.
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A pity he doesn’t sort out the chaotic mess that’s CUH in his own backyard, instead of traveling to northern Ireland
@K O: As Minister of Foreign Affairs travel such as this is a requirement of the job. There may be things to whine about in relation to Micheal Martin but complaining that he is doing his job is a new one.
Cant make it up, these lads continually slate sinn fein.
Yet they are happy to sit with them concerning the north. You can’t have stormont restoration
Without them. Bet he doesnt shout down michelle when others are watching. It’s all hand shakes and smiles.
Yet people believe his rhetoric.
@Colette Byrne: It is valid to differ with SF regarding its iffy economic policies while working alongside it towards a peaceful united Ireland.
@Colette Byrne: SF are Nationalists much like UKIP and so on. I go with Einstein’s opinion on Nationalists.
Hope they don’t use the bike shed contractors for this 1….
@Padraig Devaney: what about the electrion voting machine’s?
Between purchase and storage cost the taxpayer €54 million,then they were sold for NINE EUROS PER UNIT .
He an international high flyer, opinions on everything and no solution.
FF has made persistent effort and input into stable relationships with all who live on the island of Ireland.
@thomas molloy: FF the party of great relationships for sure, literally jumped into bed with bankers and developers and took this country to the brink in 2006 and then denied we ever bailed out said banks?
@thomas molloy: Let’s hope that we will have intelligent comment and discussion on the matter at hand rather than immature electioneering bl bl bla
@thomas molloy: you’re joking Right ?
@jak: The minute you mention your rear end Martin you are losing the argument.
@jak: It’s what you are talking through.
@Tom Newell:
Shin Fein voted on that night with the goverkment to Bale out the Bankers
Only Labour vote no to the Bale out.
“With the return of the institutions in Northern Ireland, and a renewed commitment to partnership from the British government, this is hugely important occasion to reflect on how far we have come and to drive forward the important work ahead.”
How can this important work be turned into petty electioneering bitchingg by anyone.
@thomas molloy: Can’t the so called “opposition PR departments” not see that petty electioneering is loosing the votes big time.
@thomas molloy: Will he mention, you know, the thing that he and his party dare not mention? Because we’ve had over 100 years of FF and FG saying it’s not the right time? Because we don’t want to upset the unionists? It’s time we created a new Ireland for everyone.
@Anthony Curran: The crux of the matter is that ‘we’ means different things to different people. Your concept of ‘we’ may not be the same as someone else’s.
@thomas molloy: how can you support a man who stood over one of the biggest scandals in this country, organ retention.
They stole from man, woman, and child. He stands in the dail, shouting and making slurs at sinn fein constantly, and other members of his party.
Yet you are saying what a great leader he is. Mary lou is the leader of the very party he is now going to pick the boots of.
Twofaced comes to mind.
No, he is not electionteering at all.
@Colette Byrne: lick
@Colette Byrne: How can you promote a party that is the political wing of an organisation that within living memory blew men, women and children to smithereens. I suppose that is excusable because it was all for the “cause”.
@Vincent Alexander: Did your parents or grandparents vote for the civil war parties of FF and FG, parties who murdered men, women and children?
@thomas molloy: That ship sailed a while ago!
@Vincent Alexander: The British government shot innocent people on the streets (bloody Sunday), and colluded with killers to murder people suspected of crimes. Are you suggesting that nobody talks to the British government?
@Anthony Curran:
See good Friday agreement for details.
@H Woo: Is that what your bot manual says?
A shyster who couldn’t tell the truth, even if his life depended on it!
He will yeah
@Brian Hunt. I presume you are referring to the Tainiste. I worked with Hillary in the UK and found him to be basically sound!
@Padraig O’Brien: No, I meant Mehole. Don’t know much about Hillary, but his father Tony Benn was much in the news. Didn’t like his politics much but he came across as a man of decency and integrity!
@Brian Hunt:
The great socialist who used expert financel advice to minimise inheritance taxes on the transfer of his wealth to his children.
@H Woo: That’s not a hanging offence, you’d probably do the same for your children!
have your say