LAST UPDATE | 10 Dec 2024

FIANNA FÁIL AND Fine Gael’s deputy leaders Jack Chambers and Helen McEntee met this evening to set out the parameters of negotiations between their two parties.

They said it was a “positive meeting” where they discussed the structure and format of future talks.

A meeting between the full negotiating teams for both parties is to take place tomorrow. 

The party leaders met for an hour yesterday in what has also been described as a “positive” and “constructive” meeting.

Micheál Martin and Simon Harris agreed that their respective teams could commence talks and Harris said today that he hopes a government will be formed before the end of January.

While there isn’t many sticking points between the two parties when it comes to the party policies, there are some areas such as the VAT rate for the hospitality sector which will need to be dealt with, but most likely later down the line. 

It is understood the principal meeting between the two parties tomorrow will involve setting out broad terms and deciding what areas are agreed or not.

In terms of policy, it is understood Fine Gael has seven negotiating priorities, while high on Fianna Fáil’s priority list is housing and the cost-of-living measures as set out in its manifesto. 

A discussion will take place on delivery mechanisms, dispute resolution practices, accountability and public sector reform.

Areas of common agreement will be dealt with first, such as changes to carers and disability services.

There will also be a discussion on the third pillar of government, expected to be Labour or Independents.

Labour leader Ivana Bacik met individually with Martin and Harris this afternoon, where she provided each leader with Labour’s policy priorities.

There were discussion in both meetings on policies and manifesto commitments on housing, health, climate, workers’ rights and disability services among other issues.

Labour’s parliamentary party will meet on Friday where the Bacik will provide an assessment of the engagement to date and ultimately decided if the party wants to go into government again.

A spokesman for the Taoiseach Simon Harris confirmed that he had a “constructive engagement” with the Labour leader, stating that he was “grateful for the time and engagement on a range of substantial policy issues”.

“The Taoiseach has also met with Independent TDs in the regional group. These meetings have been productive. The Taoiseach and his negotiating team will meet with the Social Democrats tomorrow,” he said. 

Speaking on Virgin Media’s Tonight Show this evening, Harris said he wants the government to be formed before the end of January.

He hinted at wanting to be in government with parties and politicians similar to his own.

“I want to get it right in terms of a policy point of view, most importantly, but then an endurance point of view.

“How can we make sure that we have a government that has the right policies, on the issues that we’ve heard from people … but also, how can we make sure that it’s a government that will last five budgets?”

The third wheel of government

If Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael wish to return to government together, they first need one smaller party as a junior partner, or a handful of Independents.

Both Fianna Fail and Fine Gael have ruled out doing business with Sinn Féin.

The centre-left Social Democrats and the Labour Party are seen as the only two realistic options if the two larger parties seek to convince a smaller party to join the coalition.

Labour leader Ivana Bacik said yesterday that she had spoken to the leaders of Fianna Fail and Fine Gael by phone and agreed to meet them in separate meetings this week.

She will meet with the Fianna Fáil leader today but has yet to confirm a date to speak with Harris, though it is expected to take place later this week.

While those in Fianna Fáil seem open to the idea of Labour or the Independents, there are concerns that if Labour is the chosen third pillar, it will mean more Cabinet seats will have to be conceded.

Concerns were also raised that with Labour in government, the party might grow “tetchy” with its close rivals, the Social Democrats, in opposition and Labour perhaps becoming an easy target for criticism. 

Those The Journal spoke to in Fianna Fáil expect the two larger parties will favour a block of seven or eight Independents to shore up the numbers. 

Martin has already held personal meetings and spoken over the phone with a number of Independents in the last week, while Harris met with a number of them yesterday.

It is understood the Taoiseach spoke with Wexford TD Verona Murphy and Dublin Bay North TD Barry Heneghan yesterday.

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Harris will today meet with the other Independents such as Galway West TD Noel Grealish, Tipperary North’s Michael Lowry, Longford-Westmeath’s Kevin “Boxer” Moran and Sligo-Leitrim’s Marian Harkin.

Parity of esteem question

With Fianna Fail’s lead over Fine Gael having grown to 10 seats following the election, focus has turned to the future of the rotating Taoiseach arrangement and whether it will operate again in the next mandate and, if so, on what basis.

There are similar questions around the distribution of ministries and other roles. However, all of these issues are set to be dealt with down the road in the negotiations. 

While Martin has so far refused to be drawn on the specifics, he has suggested that he expects Fianna Fail’s greater strength of numbers to be reflected in the new administration.

Harris has insisted that Fine Gael’s mandate cannot be taken for granted when it comes to government formation. 

However, a number of sources within Fianna Fáil have said such an expectation is “laughable”, stating that Fine Gael would not be so generous if the roles were reversed. 

It is understood those within Fianna Fáil believe the carving up of Cabinet seats will be done on a pro-rata basis, and if Harris insists on the rotating Taoiseach model, then he will have to sacrifice something else, such as the number of seats around the table. 

As reported by The Journal last week, if a rotating Taoiseach mechanism does form part of an agreement, it could mean Harris not stepping into the role until the final year and a half of the government term. 

Sources within Fianna Fáil state the grassroots membership are “bullish” in their view that the election result has to be clearly reflected. 

Ceann Comhairle role 

While much of the focus is on the make up of government, there has been some early speculation about who the next Ceann Comhairle will be. 

Seán Ó Fearghaíl is considering a third bid as Ceann Comhairle, after previously ruling it out. 

Ó Fearghaíl, who has held the role since 2016, has been approached by a number of TDs from different parties, suggesting that he contest the position in the interests of stability and continuity.

It is understood that Ó Fearghaíl is not a sure thing for the job, with a Fianna Fáil source stating there are a number of names in the mix.

There has also been talk that Ó Fearghaíl’s vote might be needed in the next government, and there could be a view that someone else, such as an Independent, might be better for the role.