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THERE IS ONE thing that’s clear right now: there is a significant dearth of information about what’s happening in Iran, and no-one knows how this is going to play out.
A lot of ‘unknown unknowns’, as former US Secretary of Defence Donald Rumsfeld once famously said.
But based on what is known, there are some things that you should be paying attention to right now.
The Journal’s Nicky Ryan, Emma Hicky, Daragh Brophy, Niall O’Connor and Christine Bohan have pulled together five things that are worth keeping an eye on.
Anyone who says they can predict who is going to lead Iran in the coming months – or years – is bluffing. Right now, no-one knows, and it could go a number of different ways.
The theocracy that has run Iran with an iron fist since 1979 is unlikely to relinquish power easily after the killing of its supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei on Saturday. Khamenei, who was 86, is believed to have selected three candidates who could take his place after his death, but their names are not publicly known – nor whether they are still alive.
A number of senior military and security figures were also killed in the targeted attacks over the weekend, including the chief of staff of the army, the defence minister, and the top commander of the Revolutionary Guard, scuttling some of the obvious choices if the country were to veer away from a religious leader and towards a more military option.
But many others are still alive, and the strength of Iran’s military means a leader emerging from this area is always on the table.
The big question is whether the public will accept someone who has been part of the existing structure of Iran’s leadership, or if something radically different will emerge.
US president Donald Trump has called on Iranian people to take this moment to topple the regime. “When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will probably be your only chance for generations,” he said.
If there were to be regime change, one option is Reza Pahlavi, the son of Iran’s last shah who was overthrown in 1979, who has long sought to position himself as the main opposition leader to the Islamic Republic. It is not clear whether he actually has much support from people in Iran, however.
Other opposition leaders exist, both in exile and within Iran itself. Until a clear picture emerges, however, a temporary council has assumed the powers of the Ayatollah.
Will they actually have any power? Come back to us in a week.
- By Christine Bohan
Tens of thousands of Irish citizens, both emigrants and tourists, are now ‘sheltering in place’ across the Gulf region.
Fresh explosions were heard across Doha, Dubai and the Bahraini capital, Manama, this morning.
As things stand, there is no planning for an Irish Emergency Consular Assistance Team (ECAT) to be dispatched to bring trapped Irish citizens out of the affected countries.
Around 12,000 Irish nationals live in the UAE alone, with that number swelled by many more holidaymakers and travellers.
Generally in a crisis scenario Ireland sets up an ECAT team of diplomats and specialists from the Army Ranger Wing. However, sources said the assessment at present is that there is little that can be done in any meaningful way to bring home such a large number of people.
UAE airspace remains closed and the only active airport at present is in nearby Oman, between four and five hours by road from Dubai.
Speaking this morning, European Affairs minister Thomas Byrne urged Irish citizens against attempting this route.
Inside Dubai, Abu Dhabi and other cities, Irish people and other non-UAE residents, including British citizens, have been remaining indoors and awaiting further instructions. While there have been high-profile incidents of rockets dropping on locations in Dubai and elsewhere, the threat to the public is set at low, at present.
Military sources monitoring events have said a shift in the Iranian response strategy overnight has eased some of the tensions within UAE authorities.
There had been, sources here and abroad said, concerns that such had been the volume of shootdowns by rockets across the region that the UAE particularly were concerned that they might be about to run out of the critical Patriot interceptors needed to combat Iranian strikes. The apparent Iranian strategy shift towards oil refinery targets in Saudi Arabia means concerns have eased slightly within the military in the UAE about their lack of defensive firepower, sources said.
- By Niall O’Connor
It’s becoming increasingly clear, well into day three of Operation Epic Fury, that this plan is of a far larger magnitude compared to the flash-bang US assault to decapitate the Venezuelan regime at the start of the year.
The lightning operation that saw US specialists capture Nicolás Maduro was effectively done and dusted within the space of a few hours. Significantly, there were no American deaths.
The conflict with Iran has now spiralled to the extent where US military personnel have lost their lives and there have been multiple retaliatory attacks on Israeli and US-allied targets across the Middle East – including, with this morning’s drone strike on a British base on Cyprus, on EU territory.
Trump, as you may recall, ran on an anti-war platform in his campaign to reclaim the presidency in 2024, telling supporters he was going to “stop wars” and not start them.
Famously, he said he would solve the Ukraine war on day one.
In fact, ever since he launched his first campaign for the White House way back in 2015, Trump has pitched himself as the antithesis of George W Bush – insisting that leaders should be focused on issues back home, rather than regime changes and forever wars.
Marjorie Taylor Greene, the ultra-MAGA Republican who famously parted company with Trump over the Epstein files and resigned her seat in Congress, was quick out of the traps at the weekend with her criticism of the president’s Iran strategy.
“My God, these poor military members and their poor families. I’m sorry for them and praying for them,” Greene wrote on X. “This was absolutely unnecessary and is unacceptable.”
Tucker Carlson, another long-term Trump supporter, said the attacks were “disgusting and evil”.
The commentator and former Fox News host, who has long warned against any attacks on Iran, suggested the conflict would have a significant impact on the level of support within Trump’s base. As Carlson put it, the attacks would “shuffle the deck in a profound way”.
Other GOP politicians and Trump-supporting influencers have also expressed their disapproval, while initial polling shows one in four Republicans believe Trump is all too willing to resort to military force.
If the conflict widens significantly and the number of US deaths begins to mount up, you can bet we’ll see further critical voices emerge to Trump’s right flank.
- By Daragh Brophy
There’s a lot of attention on the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow 21-mile-wide sea passage between Iran and Oman. For the first time, Iran has attempted to close it.
Any attempt to impede ships travelling through this area is a big deal: suddenly 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas shipments are impacted, as well as cargo heading to and from ports in the Persian Gulf.
You also have about 33% of the world’s fertilisers and 15% of its polyethylene – one of the most widely used plastics in the world – transiting through the choke point.
Iran holds some of the cards here, and can disrupt shipping in the area through drone attacks on ships or by mining, although doing so would impact its own oil exports.
The passage technically remains open, but hundreds of ships are anchored on either side, waiting to see how the next few days pan out. Some of the largest shipping giants in the world – including Maersk – have suspended their operations through the strait and have rerouted their ships.
Asian markets are more likely to be affected by the stall in energy shipments than European. But the longer this pause continues, the more pressure will be ratcheted up on the world economy.
Shipping will take longer and, as a result, cost more if container ships have to divert to different routes.
- By Nicky Ryan
Oil prices have shot up since the US and Israel first launched their attack on Iran on Saturday.
As Nicky mentioned above, the Strait of Hormuz, through which around 20% of the world’s oil supply passes, has been impacted by the war. Crude oil prices have increased at various rates, generally sitting at around 10% higher than before the attack on Iran when the markets opened today.
Kevin McPartlan, CEO of Fuels for Ireland, told The Journal that the effect of this increase in oil prices is minimal on the price Irish consumers see at the pump.
Petrol and diesel have both seen an increase of around 2c per litre since the launch of the attack on Iran, he said, while kerosene has increased about 2.5c.
Organisation OPEC+, which works to control and stabilise the global crude oil market, said it would be increasing its oil output to mitigate any supply fears.
Tánaiste and Finance Minister Simon Harris said this afternoon that he is “concerned” about potential rises in costs.
He said he had instructed his department to carry out an economic analysis of the situation, and they would “update our forecasting and our projections for the Irish economy by the end of the month”.
Harris did acknowledge “this is very, very early days”, adding there is “a huge amount of unknowns at the moment”.
“Does this situation de-escalate relatively quickly? Is this something that goes on for a prolonged period of time?
“And the difference between those two things economically could be very significant.”
- By Emma Hickey
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