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GERALD FLEMING MADE his TV debut as a weatherman back in 1984. Large pointy sticks where the order of the day in his profession – which was, by modern standards, a comparatively low-tech pursuit.
“There’s been vast improvements in the science and technology underlying weather in my working lifetime, which is nearly four decades now,” said Fleming, who initially joined Met Éireann in 1980.
Looking at the weather service’s recent handling of Hurricane Ophelia, Fleming said there had been enormous leaps in technology and accuracy compared to, say, Hurricane Charley back in 1986.
“Everybody now looks at the weather radar if they want to plan a day out or if they’re cycling somewhere or if they’re having a picnic or playing a game of golf or farming or whatever.
“We didn’t have weather radar in 1986. We did not actually know where that rain was falling until we saw reports coming in from stations.
The weather models we were using were very coarse and could give us only a very vague estimation of the likelihood of heavy rain in the different parts of the country – now we have them much more refined, much more detailed much more localised.
So all of that science has improved hugely. If Hurricane Charley were to happen again we would hope to be able to give three or four days of notice – not just the amount of rain but those places where the rain was likely to fall and the impacts of it.
Fleming, who’s retiring from his role as Head of Forecasting at the end of the year, said he was looking forward to stepping away from the “9 to 5″, as he showed TheJournal.ie around the service’s Glasnevin HQ (see video above).
Known to TV viewers for his laid-back presenting style and trademark winking sign-off, the Wexford meteorologist stepped down from regular broadcasting almost a decade ago to concentrate on managing forecasting operations.
He said he that, as he was approaching 60 “thankfully in good health”, he had now decided to finish up with the weather service to concentrate on other interests.
Fleming won’t be stepping away from the world of meteorology entirely. He’ll keep his role at the UN’s weather forecasting agency the World Meteorological Organisation, where he’s part of an expert team “looking at how we deliver the weather to clients”.
It’s challenging, and it keeps me up to date with meteorology.
He’ll likely do other bits and pieces too, once he retires – but won’t be looking for another full time job (and he’s not interested in running for political office, for the record).
Looking back at this year in weather, Hurricane Ophelia was top of our list to ask about.
In the days after the October storm, everyone seemed to have an opinion on whether it had been as bad as expected.
“We do know certainly in terms of the damage that it certainly was more powerful than Darwin (in 2014),” Fleming said.
That’s primarily by looking at the amount of electricity customers whose power was disrupted – so it was something like 50% higher for Ophelia than it was for Darwin. That gives us a good idea of the spread and the strength of the wind, because that electricity network is one of the most vulnerable elements to strong winds.
It was also a bigger storm that affected more parts of the country – Darwin was quite contained and only affected a relatively small area but in that area it did a lot of damage.
You’d have to go back to Hurricane Debbie, all the way back in 1961 to find the most comparable weather event.
That storm travelled up along the west coast and gave us some very strong winds up in Galway and Mayo and up in Donegal but of course we didn’t have the records then that we have now, so it’s hard to compare like with like in that sense.
In years to come, we’re likely to experience more serious winter storms, Fleming said.
The likelihood is that we will get somewhat heavier rains in the winter time. As for wind strength and storm strength, the jury is still out on that – whether we are going to get more and more of that. But it’s certainly something that we are concerned about.
Met Éireann vs RTÉ
Fleming has overseen a number of changes to the forecasting system during his tenure in charge, including the introduction of the colour-coded (yellow, orange, red) warnings and the storm naming system – a joint project with the UK’s Met Office.
He stepped down from regular rostered broadcasting duties in 2009 – but, of course, remained a familiar face as he popped up on news bulletins during various floods, storms and freezes.
Ten years before that, as you may recall, he and his colleagues found themselves at the centre of a row that inflamed public opinion and resulted in RTÉ being inundated with calls from angry TV viewers.
The national broadcaster had tried to scrap meteorologists from their presenting staff and replace them with non-expert staff. It didn’t go well.
“Like any relationship there are ups and downs and that was certainly one of the downs,” said Fleming.
The decision, of course, wasn’t popular at all, and Met Éireann forecasters were soon reinstated as management reversed their decision.
The weatherman insists:
We’ve had an excellent working relationship with them ever since.
Even as the array of weather-forecasting services and apps available to the average person via their smartphone expands, Fleming says he can’t envisage in-person TV broadcasts being dropped from the main stations here anytime soon.
“So much in Ireland the weather is the first topic in most people’s conversation.
I still think people will want to see another person standing there explaining things to them, explaining the context.
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We are top in a lot in EU per head of capita ..
Debt, housing , health, taxes … FFG flying..
@Willy: We are nowhere near the top for taxes actually
@Willy: Keep the recovery going..
@Willy: capita and head are the same word
@Sam Harms: are we closer to the top or bottom? Genuine question
@Willy: Its 100 percent social media and nothing else, young people are looking at others online who show themselves as having the perfect life and look great and they think they are missing out or are not good enough, the pressure now on young people is far higher then the old days…..this is only the start I really pity the kids now because any of them that are prone to stress easy are going to be in real trouble with social media…..
@Sam Harms: Where TOCOS tax on cash on sight at the ATM has been legislated by an inept, tax addicted austerity assembly, I think we must be pretty much on top of the tax pile when all is considered.
How much of that is drug and drink related which seems to be at epidemic proportions at the moment.
Younger Irish people are drinking a lot less in recent years, so I don’t think its epidemic. Perhaps this rise in depression is stemming from something else.
@Seán Dillon: Agreed. It’s a major problem. Our entire business & social culture revolves around alcohol.
@O Swetenham: but use of cannabis and other substances has risen…
@Lydia McLoughlin: Or more logical thinking is that people who are depressed are more likely to use drugs and consume more alcohol.
Social media might also be a factor, there’s an enormous amount of pressure on younger people to behave/look a certain way.
@O Swetenham: social media is a huge factor imo too.
@MichaelZzzzzz:
Why is that more logical? Either could be the case.
@O Swetenham: social media has a huge part in this, teens comparing their looks, lifestyle and friends against their peers etc (which is mainly enhanced and not real anyways) – and sending them into depressive states, about not being good enough. Johann Hari has some interesting research to back this up.
@O Swetenham: I tend to agree. There is a negative correlation between depression and alcohol consumption statistics. Social pressures are relentless and there is no escape for many young people; not even the comfort of their own homes any more
@Seán Dillon: Suspect the problem is much simpler than drink, drugs & social media.
Suspect the problem is being caused by what we eat drink & breath.
Our food & drink is laced with HIDDEN biocidal sulphite preservatives we didn’t evolve to eat daily. Out breathing air in towns & cities is also contaminated with sulphur dioxide from diesel exhaust. And then our cars & homes are contaminated with offgassing isocyanates from polyurethane plastics, rubbers & foams.
All these are causing an immune response that is leading to low grade chronic inflammation and this inflammation in the CNS is driving anxiety & depression.
Apparently 1 in 6 (sorry don’t have source) have an intolerance to sulphites. BUT if sulphites are less than 10mg/kg they can be legally hidden on food labeling.
@Seán Dillon: Its 100 percent social media and nothing else, young people see others who show themselves as having the perfect life and look great and they think they are missing out, the pressure now on young people is far higher then the old days…..this is only the start or this I really pity the kids now because of of them that are prone to stress easy are going to be in real trouble with social media.
@Seán Dillon: people are drinking a lot less, also it usually goes the other way; depression causes alcohol and drug abuse, not vica versa
@Cathal: That’s not correct. People use alcohol etc to dampen their depression when in actual fact it has the opposite effect. Also, people are drinking every bit as much as before, just in different ways. Don’t fall for that myth.
@Seán Dillon: There is a link to the report in the article.
Homelessness is also highlighted as well as poverty& deprivation,social inclusion factors.It said in Ireland between 2016-2018 there was a 78% increase in homelessness among the 18-24 age group.
@TellingItAsItIs: Maybe you need to meet more sober people? It isn’t the norm everywhere. We all know that heavy drinkers hate to be the only one drinking. They put pressure on others to get locked into rounds, pun meant. Most people figure that out in their first job and leave them to it.
@Fiona Fitzgerald: Maybe you need to wake up and get real and stop making excuses. The drinking problem in this country is an epidemic.
There is still an unnecessary taboo around depression in Ireland.
It can hit anyone at any moment and it’s time that society recognises it as an illness that should be spoken about instead of a problem that is hidden.
@Wreck Tangle: true and it is being spoken about now more than ever. Any ideas as to why we are top of this list?
@James Wallace: A lot of it is due to how difficult our country makes it for people to have a decent quality of life here. A young person who wants to start driving are met with high insurance premiums for example. A lot of young people are working for less than 400 euro per week so they can’t afford to do anything i.e. get a car or buy a home.
My advise to any young person here in Ireland would be to move to a real country where they can have a better quality of life.
@James Wallace: a great question & one that is never explored. Maybe there is something wrong with our society that we need to fix.
@David Corrigan: a person who is well can handle all of these normal challenges in life .. depression is an illness and sometimes has no definitive triggers .. also depression hits all social classes equally from the super rich all the way down the social spectrum ..
@David Corrigan: brilliantly analyzed. Great comment
@Pat Butler: we are not the only country with those problems and in fact our quality of life here is better than a lot of countries, even within Europe. It doesn’t explain the reasons why we are always near the top of these type of lists.
@John Kelly: True John but they are put in a very difficult situation where they really don’t have much hope. Busting a gut during their prime working years and have nothing to show for it really is not good for the mind. The majority of young people here in Ireland just go through the motions as they know nothing else. They have never experienced anything else.
Can you imagine that damage it must do for a young person to wake up every day to go into a job where they are working hard for a wage that is not even enough to live on? That kind of life cannot be good for the mind.
@David Corrigan:
I don’t think it comes down to quality of life per sé – on one level quality of life has never been better.
I think it comes to expectations vs reality. Society has raised younger generations to have progressively higher expectations. Reality seldom meets this level, therefore disappointment, disillusionment and subsequent depression.
@The Great Unwashed: I agree with some of that but I think that even very modest expectations can’t be met here in Ireland. Everywhere you turn there is a bill to be paid and wages are just enough to keep bills paid. There is nothing left over to put into savings for ones future.
I know people in their early 40′s working in manufacturing companies with take home pay of 329.00 per week. That is only one example but I would believe that is happening all across the country. How can one live on that kind of money? That is pay for a skilled job by the way.
@James Wallace:
Interesting question.. I’m sure there are many factors but I think Ireland normally sits at the wrong end of many scales. Examples: Top 10 for loss of years due to alcohol abuse & cocaine consumption (also ranked quite low in terms of AA membership, more ignoring issues within society). Consumer (credit cards, loans etc. excludes mortgages) and gambling debts are very high compared to International average.
Other people have pointed to the economy which I don’t believe would be a leading influence. Young Italians for example have a far worse outlook than young Irish people. Ireland sits at the middle of euro stats in terms of people living below the poverty line! So whilst life is far from easy, Irish people do better than in other countries.
There’s an interesting paper published on generation what’s website called Young people and Optimism. It’s long but some interesting parts if you have time.
@David Corrigan:
And yet people from elsewhere would give their right arm to get into Ireland and have what we have. We are the 5%.
@David Corrigan: unfortunately it’s not just the young folk in that situation
@The Great Unwashed: Thats because they don’t realise how bad things are here until they arrive or if you are a migrant here for a few years you don’t have to deal with the chronic sense of failure about not being able to achieve the one thing that in this country defines status and adulthood, buying your first home
@Wreck Tangle: Yet young people don’t have credit cards, gambling debts, huge loans out and cocaine addictions. I agree that all of those factors are crushing for anyone, but wrong demographic for this article, surely ?
@Seamus Mac: nothing has changed since I was a child. We had to put with being beaten and bullied in schools and at times the same treatment was dished out in our homes. This was in 50s and beyond. A lot of us grew up terrified of life and especially authority figures. This needs to be addressed now wherever it is happening. No one wins if a child is not nurtured and loved in every way.
If they went out and did some exercise instead of staring at social media, there would be a lot less depression. Depression rates are tied to obesity rates
@Peter Byrne: you obviously haven’t a clue about depression
@John Kelly: I think it’s fair to suggest that you’re pretty clueless yourself John. Depression is a chemical imbalance in the brain, which can be brought on through environmental factors, as much as anything else.
@Kate Foley: but he’s partially right, there are studies that show that regular exercise has beneficial mental benefits. I’m not saying it’s a cure for depression but it can help some people.
@Kate Foley: fatty foods, sedentary lifestyle will have an effect on the chemistry in the brain. Less social contact for instance will lead to a reduction in oxytocin while addiction to computer games and snacking will lead to an over production and reliance on dopamine. They also will inhibit the growth of new brain cells, neurogenesis. Such acute situations could become chronic in the longer term unless halted.
@Kate Foley: The chemical imbalance myth is a lie. If it was the case there would be lab tests to verify.
@John Kelly: It doesn’t help spending most of the first on social media. Mix thst
@Gavin Tobin: That implies that the particular imbalance is known. Try starting at Junior Cert science again, work up to degree level biochemistry, and then come back to us.
@Peter Byrne: That’s nonsense. Practically the only saving grace of depression is the fact that you don’t have the energy to do serious harm to yourself. Pushing people outdoors, because you don’t want to know how bad depression is, is no kind of treatment. I remember a local park that had to have all the trees cut down, if you don’t. Young people were going out and hanging themselves. That’s what happens. Exercise my eye.
@George Salter: how can they say it’s a chemical imbalance if its not known?
That means it’s not a chemical imbalance and the chemical imbalanced suggestion is at best a guess and likely simply a bullshitte excuse to stick people on ADs.
@Fiona Fitzgerald: What part of delusional hell do you reside at?
“young women aged 15–24 were more likely to suffer from depression than young men.”
And yet young men between the ages of 15-24 are 4 times more likely to commit suicide. Often with no indication that there was a problem until it is too late.
Surely this statistic should be mentioned and discussed.
Why are men/boys far more likely to resort to suicide if they are less likely to suffer from depression?
Are males less likely to admit to depression or are other factors at play?
@Will:
“young women are more likely to handle upsetting events internally”
This line seems to fly in the face of all that we know about depression and suicide too.
@Will: I remember reading quite recently that attempted suicide among females is far higher than among males, but I get your point that the report’s statistics may be skewed due to the “weak man” stigma of depression in males. Less likely to report?
@Peter:
It depends how you define ‘attempted suicide’.
‘Cries for help’ and self-harming behaviour are more common in young women, but serious attempts and actual suicides are more common in men.
@Peter: “attempted suicide among females is far higher than among males”
Yet male suicide is 4 times higher then with females.
This would indicate that female suicide is often more a cry for help then a real attempt to kill themselves whereas men are just looking for a way out of the dark place they’ve found themselves, help be damned.
It’s a tough one to nail down as questionnaires and surveys on this issue don’t give a clear picture.
@Peter: Maybe men don’t talk to their doctors, but also are inclined to be ‘impatient’ for a quick cure? Anti-depressants take weeks to kick in, and people do better often on a different type than the first one prescribed. This might be a factor too? We all know people, usually men, who went back into work too early after flu – mental illness is probably the same in terms of pushing people too hard to “get well soon”?
It’s very hard for young people to make it in this country these days. It’s almost impossible to buy a house,even qualified highly educated people out of college only get offered small mediocre contracts and the cost of living is very high compared to previous generations. Army, nurses, teachers are all on worse contracts and poorer pensions then previous generations. Insurance to set up your own business or to get a car is extortionately high and the country is in a mountain of debt. It’s very hard for young people to make it in today’s Ireland
Poor diet, Lack of vitamin D is a huge factor as well our climate of dull and rainy days which causes SAD and not enough exercise, plus fruit intake which contains the right kind of sugar ‘ fructose’ is important for running every single cell in our brain so we need to up our intake of fruit on a daily basis.
@C_O’S: Fructose is not the right kind of sugar. Much fructose consumed in processed foods comes from corn and is laced with embedded sulphites from the initial processing step. Over consumption of sulphites causes inflammation of the CNS leading to anxiety & depression.
@Gavin Tobin: fructose from fruit is not harmful to the body.
@C_O’S: I’ve known only one fruitarian. He was certain that his diet was helping him. Whether physically or mentally he didn’t or couldn’t say. Sadly, he killed himself a couple of years ago.
@C_O’S: perhaps on a tree or plant before picking and before modern preservatives are introduced to make the fruit travel better & last longer. Eating grapes for example are packed in sulphur dioxide to prevent spoilage. So you are getting fructose but biocides simultaneously.
Great if you can grow your own food but commercial food preservation techniques are I suspect causing widespread havoc.
It’s obvious. It’s the standard of living. We have it worse than any generation since the 1950s, well at least they had housing. In school they told us we had to go university, and a good one at all costs. We went to uni worked our asses off and came out to a job market that pays us little over minimum wage and a housing system that takes half our rent for small rooms. We can’t afford to properly socialise, we can’t afford to buy a car, we have no real chance of getting better pay, no chance of buying a car, can’t afford to get married, can’t afford to have kids and then they wonder why prescriptions for anti depressants are through the roof?
@Niall Dunne: Spot on Niall. The average salary for a graduate engineer would be around 25 or 26K here in Ireland. The same engineer would command a salary of about $75K upstate NY. The cost of living here is higher than that part of the world but our engineers start on one third of the salary.
@Niall Dunne: I would suggest expectations have a lot to do with it. Since the excesses of the Celtic tiger, young Irish people have far higher expectations of life and what it should be like, in a material sense at least. When expectations are high disappointment is likely.
Growing up during the 70s and 80s we had no expectations other then unemployment or a plane or boat ride out of the country. When you’re used to having nothing, anything puts a smile on your face.
@Will: Is expecting a secure home, a full time job, a few bob for when your not working and maybe a week away once a year high expectations? I would call that the bear minimum for any quality of life, yet we cannot have it because of the excesses of previous generations and the neo liberal policies of our government
@Niall Dunne: we all came out of college having to start on steps of life and work our way to achieve all the benefits along the way. Now people want everything instantly. I started my first job at £5.50 punt a week, having to pay all bills, rent, etc.out of that. Keep head down and work hard!
The abuse of alcohol and the gambling addiction in this country are huge contributors to the problem. Alcohol amplifies problems and gambling is available(and advertised as sexy) to kids. We have an epidemic.
@TellingItAsItIs: these are symptoms of a problem within our society that we need to answer.
@Seamus Mac: They create too much revenue to be seriously tackled by either the government or society. It’s all about the money, greed and selfishness #cutehoorism #asirishasspuds
I feel sorry for this generation. What is there to hope for? In reality luck. Lucky enough to find work, lucky enough to find a place you can afford, lucky to not get sick, lucky to have a decent education, lucky to be near basic services, or transportation, or lucky to be born with wealth. Lucky if you can live above the cost of living.
It’s been this way for hundreds of years, and no matter how much we pay those at the top it only continues. I wish you all the best of luck.
Watching Fair city on TV is the cause of it . They need to get that program off the television .
@John Smith: nothing on tv is as depressing as Eastenders. Fair City doesn’t even come close!
Weather may be a factor – rarely see blue skies overhead like much of Europe.
Bullying each other doesn’t help
I’d say the weather might be a factor, albeit a cursory one. The fact that a few Scandinavian countries and a remote island make up the top 5 points towards it.
At least when I was younger you could live in Rathmines for half nothing and work 4 hours a day. You could spend your spare time doing stuff you were really interested in. Now graduates are sold a pup. Get a great Leaving Cert, get a minimum of a 2.1 in college, join an accountancy/law firm and just maybe you will be made partner after 20 years of hard slog (tip: you won’t unless daddy knows somebody)
With the state of mental health services in this country is anybody surprised.
Serious pressure on young people (and people in general) now. The need to look their best and have the most up to date this and that….sad times. Smartphones, Social Media in my opinion can shoulder some of the blame, online bullying etc.
Lets hope they can get through a sad time in their lives and realise all the materialistic stuff in life means nothing and have some people around them who love them, thats the most important thing to have in life……… (and it would help to live in a well run country with good support networks where life isnt a struggle for many)
I suppose because of the weather no the Sun no humour
Continuous stress, no job prospects, no hope of owning a house, endless work, no time for anything else trying to get by, from now until they die. No reprieve, no future. #keeptherecoverygoing
Also, no public dental service. Not that young people have much reason to smile as things are, but there’s that too.
@Sarah: look in look in pub any night of week and you’ll see whether they have time for anything else.
Shite climate, third world infrastructure, shite wages except for limited industry. Extortion rental prices, if you can even get one. Insurance on cars is practically impossible to get for young people, and not to mention a government that couldn’t give a fiddlers about its citizens. It’s a tough place to live and especially if you are a young person trying to find their way in the world.
Lots of reasons to this, but as many have said it that a perception of lack of worth and/or a perception of having a very hard future are major contributions.. Robotics AI etc making it harder to try and chose careers for the future, Leo, FG and thier ftriendly media spining about how well the country is doing, while they see no future as their parenst struggle to live with mediocure wages and extorinate costs of living in this country are not helping, nor is having to live with parents for longer for same reasons.
Couple that new ways of living as in one of the first generations to be more likely even less well off than their parents, with the pressures of social media and a Goverment obsessed with image over substance that dose not seem to care about oridinary peoples problems with exortinate costs of living, housing & health crisis and why would they not be depreessed, it makes one depressed oneself to think of what the future may hold for these. For some they might be able to leave the country for a few years and experience live as a youngster should and try to enjoy life and actually put a few quid away, but for those that will be staying all they can see is a job with low wages and half of that goinng in useless rent.
@Gowon Geter: a generation of moaners. They never had it so good. A bit of hardship would go a long way! Try it!
There needs to be big messages getting sent like what they done for road safety because unfortunately people still don’t get how serious it is I wudnt wish it on my worst enemy but we need to get rid of the stigma it’s an actual very serious illness that needs to be highlighted like cancer heart disease etc I am so frustrated with Ireland’s approach to the subject
There’s no Mental Health care
@JeremiahMcDonagh: I agree with that despite millions being pumped into it. People with mental health issues need the right kind of help. What needs to be done is give people a real life coach to help them to deal with downs in life. For example, having to deal with authority or legal issues is like facing a firing squad for a lot of people. A coach or sponsor would help a lot in those situations and there would be a lot less depression if this were an option for people to tap in to. Why not make it available!
Fluoride in our water maybe
Ireland 3 rd highest cancer rate in the world
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Content presented to you on this service can be based on limited data, such as the website or app you are using, your non-precise location, your device type, or which content you are (or have been) interacting with (for example, to limit the number of times a video or an article is presented to you).
With your acceptance, your precise location (within a radius of less than 500 metres) may be used in support of the purposes explained in this notice.
With your acceptance, certain characteristics specific to your device might be requested and used to distinguish it from other devices (such as the installed fonts or plugins, the resolution of your screen) in support of the purposes explained in this notice.
Your data can be used to monitor for and prevent unusual and possibly fraudulent activity (for example, regarding advertising, ad clicks by bots), and ensure systems and processes work properly and securely. It can also be used to correct any problems you, the publisher or the advertiser may encounter in the delivery of content and ads and in your interaction with them.
Certain information (like an IP address or device capabilities) is used to ensure the technical compatibility of the content or advertising, and to facilitate the transmission of the content or ad to your device.
Information about your activity on this service may be matched and combined with other information relating to you and originating from various sources (for instance your activity on a separate online service, your use of a loyalty card in-store, or your answers to a survey), in support of the purposes explained in this notice.
In support of the purposes explained in this notice, your device might be considered as likely linked to other devices that belong to you or your household (for instance because you are logged in to the same service on both your phone and your computer, or because you may use the same Internet connection on both devices).
Your device might be distinguished from other devices based on information it automatically sends when accessing the Internet (for instance, the IP address of your Internet connection or the type of browser you are using) in support of the purposes exposed in this notice.
The choices you make regarding the purposes and entities listed in this notice are saved and made available to those entities in the form of digital signals (such as a string of characters). This is necessary in order to enable both this service and those entities to respect such choices.
Non-TCF/GVL Vendors
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