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IF THEY SAY a week is a long time in politics, what about 226 weeks? That’s the length of time since Ireland last voted in an election.
Over the next few days we’ll see 949 council seats filled along with 14 seats in the European Parliament. While that’s important in itself, we’ll also get a clear sense of how the Irish electorate is feeling ahead of a general election.
Something that must happen over the next nine months.
Ballots in the European elections won’t be announced until tomorrow night and counting may extend into the next few days, so we’re going to focus a little bit on what to look out for as the local election results come in.
There have been so many polls released over the past few months that it’s been hard to keep track. Between different polling companies and surveys across both elections, there’s just a lot of numbers and figures to take in.
One of the clearest trends though has been the apparent strength of independent candidates. The most recent The Journal/Ireland Thinks poll ahead of election day put independents at 23% and ahead in the race for European seats.
In local government, independents already have a strong representation, winning about one in five of all the seats up for grabs in 2019, but there will be many non-aligned candidates hoping to see this increase.
Interestingly though, the political stage has somewhat shifted in regards independents over the past while.
The emergence of Independent Ireland as a registered party has grouped a number of prominent independents under the same banner, with some candidates being in the position of being grouped with some others they may not agree with politically.
For example, Ciaran Mullooly, who is running for Independent Ireland, was forced to distance himself from comments made by party leader Michael Collins TD.
In another era, a so-called celebrity candidate like Mullooly might have thrown his lot in with one of the big parties, but such is the wind behind the sails of independents, perhaps he saw this as the best option.
In recent days we have also seen the perceived independence of non-aligned representatives being questioned by some opposition parties, with Labour and People Before Profit in particular suggesting that the voting records of many independents in the Dáil show that they often side with the government.
If indeed it is the case that independents have a good day today, expect this question to be a big one as people speculate about the mathematics of the next Dáil.
Electorally speaking, this may be the biggest question we get an answer on today.
In the previous local elections in 2019 Sinn Féin had a disastrous day. The party went from having the lion’s share of Dublin City Council (15 seats) to just 8 seats out of 63 and this pattern was matched elsewhere in the country, where it essentially lost half its representation in local councils.
It was seen as a major blow to a party that had a new leader in place in the form of Mary Lou McDonald and there were post-mortems galore afterwards.
However, suggestions that the party’s support had peaked were wildly misplaced. Nine months later Sinn Féin won the most first preferences in the general election, a historic first time ever that neither Fianna Fáil nor Fine Gael had won the popular vote.
In the four years since Sinn Féin has become used to topping opinion polls, often by wide margins, but this has shifted in the past year, with the party now slumping back to instead fight for lead with Fine Gael.
The issue of immigration dominating the campaign clearly hasn’t helped the party, but some of the party’s own members have also said there are other issues at play.
Regardless of the reasons, there will certainly be an eagerness in the party to position itself strongly ahead of the general election. Particularly if they’re seeking to use the local elections to springboard some fresh faces towards a run at the Dáil.
In some ways the poor performance in 2019 offers a low base from which they can seek to improve, but if the improvement is only marginal this would certainly represent a concern.
The party put forward 335 candidates in the locals yesterday, it’s still fewer than Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, but is way up on the 230 or so they had last time.
In some constituencies there are four Sinn Féin names on the ballot, perhaps a risky strategy in some areas, but with eyes on the general election the party is not going to make the mistake again of running too few.
When he announced his shock resignation as taoiseach and Fine Gael leader, Leo Varadkar felt he was “no longer the right person” to maximise the Fine Gael vote.
It was a rare candid admission from a political leader but came from a man who had struggled to turn his appeal into electoral success for his party.
Now, Taoiseach Simon Harris faces the first test of whether he is the “right person” his party is looking for.
The early signs have been positive, with polls suggesting Fine Gael has risen by three percentage points in the past month. This bump has even led to some suggestions that Harris would use his prerogative to call a general election sooner than the March 2025 deadline.
Asked about this last weekend, Harris again reiterated that there was “a lot of work to do” before he wished to call an election, adding that “there’s a poll taking place on Friday”.
Now that this poll has been completed, those questions are unlikely to stop if Fine Gael manages to secure some strong results.
The crowded centre-left space has become even more crowded in this election and it throws up a lot of questions about the number of votes to go around.
While there has been some focus on these elections being the first for Simon Harris as party leader, the same can be said for Holly Cairns at the Social Democrats and Ivana Bacik at Labour.
Both women are leading their parties for the first time in elections and the locals may provide some important evidence for party strategists ahead of the next general election.
In the Dáil, the Social Democrats currently hold six seats and Labour seven, a haul that owes a lot to Sinn Fein not running sufficient candidates to benefit from transfers.
It means that the two parties will be playing defence in the next general election, and in many cases may be fighting each other to hold onto those numbers.
Polling has frequently put both parties within the margin of error of one another at 4-5% but these elections also throw another factor into the mix.
The Green Wave that swept Eamon Ryan’s party into government in 2020 first started rising in the local elections in 2019.
The vote saw the party dramatically growing its presence in local government and it coincided with a period in which the global climate action movement found a new face in the form of Greta Thunberg.
Now, after four years in a coalition government in Ireland in which the Greens have been successful in getting policies over the line, they face the perennial challenge of smaller coalition partners in getting squeezed at election time.
From a support level of 7% in the last general election, the Greens are now polling at around 4% and are therefore fighting with the aforementioned Labour and SocDems.
With all three parties fighting for the same pool of votes, something may have to give.
Ireland has never elected a politician from a far-right party, with the best-performing candidate in the 2020 general election getting just 2% of first-preference votes.
Ahead of the local elections, we have seen a number of new parties that have leaned into anti-immigrant sentiment registering with the newly formed Electoral Commission.
Some of the parties whose rhetoric is heavy with such sentiment are The Irish People, the National Party, the Irish Freedom Party and Ireland First.
Candidates from those parties as well as some independents who have espoused similar views number over 110 across the country, with more than half of the local electoral areas having such a candidate.
While immigration policies have been central to the debate ahead of the local elections and have been discussed by all parties, the far-right in Ireland and elsewhere present immigration as a kind of cultural pollutant.
They claim that immigrants bring crime to the country and pose a threat to locals, especially women and children.
Such misleading rhetoric is heard at many of the anti-asylum seeker protests around the country, and many of the agitators that have attended such protests have built up significant profiles on social media.
Several are running in both the local and European elections, but the chances of being elected at local level is much higher. One of the biggest questions of these local elections is therefore whether this online support has real-word clout.
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The meteorologists give colour coded warnings and they’re criticised for being alarmist. Then when its percieved thay didn’t give a warning they’re at fault.
They may have slightly underestimated the amounts yesterday, but they did forecast snow in the afternoon. Weather is unpredictable, it’s not possible to be 100% right all the time.
@James Wallace: colour coded warnings are useless basically yellow or orange go to work. red go to work if your workplace is open.
@James Wallace: they forecast snow in the afternoon….when it was already snowing. Ya good work guys. I got caught and it took close on two hours to get from Naas to Newbridge
@ed w: Actually, a red warning advises that nobody travel and to stay safe, even if it’s to go to work. Retail/office staff who are disciplined for missing work during a red warning will have a slam dunk winning case, also, businesses leave themselves open to cases for risking staffs safety and wellbeing for operating during these events.
Warning systems save lives, and undoubtedly they have during the 2 we’ve had in the last 2 years.
@Mick Morrissey: They forecast snow the day before. I follow the weather regularly. They issued the warning and well.
I was caught in the M7 delays yesterday, 7.5hrs on a bus from Cork to Dublin with no water and no food. It was horrendous.
AA Roadwatch was poorly updated and updated far too late – they should have put out a do not travel unless necessary notice at 2pm but failed to do so (because it was Sunday I’m sure) and caused thousands and thousands of people to be stranded on dark motorways. The whole thing was a farce and put vulnerable people in an impossible position (there were elderly people and a pregnant woman on our coach who were very stressed).
They knew the snow was coming and did absolutely nothing to mitigate the effects. Embarrassing, incompetent Irish as usual.
@Rachel: what exactly do you expect them to do? Turn off the weather to suit you?
@Rachel: AA is not our weather forecasters where were they with there forecast Excuse the pun They were asleep at the wheel
The BBC HAD IN ON SATURDAY NIGHT THAT SNOW WAS ARRIVING IN THE UK SUNDAY Did our people think none would fall here
@Rachel: to the people commenting do ye not have any lives of your own that you have to put pathetic comments on here she was only passing a comment which she is in titled to do.
@Rachel: S
@Rachel: So Rachel it their fault you didn’t bring any food or drinks with you !! And probably cause there was no toilet on board either
So if someone travelling from Cork to Dublin had seen a sign that said it was snowing and to expect long delays, that they would what… turn around and go back?
@Reuben Gray: no. They would find something else to complain about
@Shaun Gallagher: Maybe the overhead signs could just say “Brexit, discuss”.
@Reuben Gray: if they were near enough to Cork they might have, and likewise someone travelling South have have turned around and headed home to Dublin
@Reuben Gray: yes or if they had a child, come off at the next exit and find somewhere to stop and wait it out. We were stuck in our car with 2 hungry kids for hours and it was no joke.
We got the warnings. Mother nature is unpredictable
Weather forecast said rain turning to light snow fall would not stick because of wet ground and going back to rain. Not what happened.
@KJmadra.: In life never believe all you read.Especially about the weather in March in Ireland.
@Billy McNamara: I don’t not much can be believed from met eireann. Usually opposite.
@KJmadra.: Your comment is telling of lack of understanding of complex global weather system, local climates and other variables needed to attempt to forecast weather.
It’s a bleedin forecast, not a prediction
It was the worst I’ve ever experienced yesterday. 3:30 mins from kildare shopping village to the ball in Naas. 4 hrs total to get to work.
There were reports of congestion going into Newbridge and Naas so I have another half hour early, but the back roads were also reported to be dangerous & trees down in area.
Im not sure what could of been done to fix it but it would of been a nice touch to have a least one emergency service out with a few cans of fuel as a good few ran out and caused further blockages.
Maybe hand out bottles of water given it was so many hours stuck between 2 exits for hours.
I’ll always keep at least a third of a tank and water in car in future!
@Shayne O’Donoghue: So during sever weather events, you want people to come to your car and offer you a bottle of water and fill your car? Why not instruct your chauffeur to keep a jerry can and a water cooler accessible at all times?
@Shayne O’Donoghue: what planet do you live on. FFS!!
@Shayne O’Donoghue: being prepared always seems to be the last option.
AA Roadwatch = waste of space. Totally useless.
@Cathal Flood: not only are they a private company, they are a self proclaimed political lobby group and as such should not be getting any free air time, especially on RTE which is supposed to be an impartial public service broadcaster. By getting into bed with the AA, RTE is breaching it’s own guidelines. Yet every time we discuss congestion, bus corridors, cycle lanes etc, up pops AA to give their self serving input.
@James Wallace: and we have to look at that crooked mouth acting like a government spokesperson or self appointed voice of the driver.
@James Wallace: I’m afraid the AA have always been a political body… they were founded in the UK in the early part of the last century to warn motorists that police were carrying out speed checks ahead . They only started repairing cars later on !
@Ollie Conroy: exactly, they have always been a political body so why are they allowed free reign on the airwaves? RTE are not allowed to promote or favour one political body over another
@In my opinion: she obviously does not remember when that was normal journey time!!
Thanks for name calling – I shouldn’t even rely to trolls… Especially anonymous ones…. But the status yellow warning was for rain not snow.
@Louise O’Connor: it was for snow as well. There were numerous warnings yesterday. Wind rain and snow!
@joe: snow was forecast for high ground only.
@Louise O’Connor: agreed Louise I was in the same situation yesterday checked the weather before I left a warning against rain with snow on high ground. Plus the toll plaza was a joke only two lanes open causing huge back logs
@john paul crowley: thanks. And yes toll plaza was something medieval. If guards were onsite, they could have managed the flow much more quickly. There were 6km tailbacks on both sides.
TII is the key to the chaos, you cannot believe how under qualified these people are. Like cervical check, HSE, ran by people not from shop floor, so if you see a cool logo your usually dealing with BS. Another logo the RSA no sign of them condemning because if you saw the number of tips,crashes it is amazing someone wasn’t seriously hurt.
If there is to be snow you hedge, have your gritter ready supporting the motorways the preparation is not to send out a Suit to give positive soundbites. Fact is if you had of supported the road networks with gritters prior then the shutdown would not of happened.
Rem . Nothing works here because of bluffers in suits.
@Albert Brennerman: totally agree.
TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE IRELAND (TII)
And another quango surfaces.
Traveling back from Kilkenny to Dublin when the snow hit. Added an hour or so into the journey. The biggest issue, by a country mile, were the absolute idiots, no, that’s too mild a word, that put their lives and mine in danger as they rushed to get home faster, jumping lanes, creating “3rd” lanes, speeding through drifts. If you are reading lads, F@#K YOU
That what happens when Irish retailer’s told met office to quit the weather warning as it was affecting their business. It was only one afternoon get over it – and now realise who dictates what information is released to the public.
1) Had they ‘salted’ the roads in advance?
2) Was this caused because there were not enough staff on duty because it was a Sunday?
Forecast was for wintery showers turning to sleet and snow for the midlands and that’s what happened the motorways were closed in sections due to accidents leading to Sunday night traffic being diverted through towns and inevitably delays. The ploughs and gritters were out but the volume of snow was horrendous so not much more could be done to prevent the delays
@Eamonn O Connell: was four hours on the motorway never saw one snow plough or gritter
@GClare: I do.
Always a worrying sign when swans can be seen flying @ night??
You’d be sorted in a Kia Sorrento AWD
” … If all the girls in this college were laid end to end, I wouldn’t be surprised.”
Dorothy Parker
@GClare: I do. Not that it has anything to do with yesterday’s events.
“..She’s as pure as the driven slush. …”
Dorothy Parker
@In my opinion: there were no warnings.
BBC had it on Saturday night…
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