IN THE LATEST quarterly report from the Nevin Economic Research Institute, low growth and a rate of high unemployment has been predicted for the next three years.

The spring 2013 edition of the Quarterly Economic Observer projects a GDP growth of 1 per cent and 1.2 per cent over the next two years, increasing to 2 per cent in 2015.

In regards to unemployment, authors believe there will be a further fall in the numbers employed in 2013 by 0.6 per cent, with employment levels remaining static in 2014 and 2015. It is also believed that unemployment will remain at 14.7 per cent in 2013 and marginally increase to 15 per cent in 2014 and 2015.

NERI have forecast that Ireland’s gross debt will peak at 121.1 per cent of GDP this year and reduce marginally in 2014 and 2015.

“The depressed nature of the domestic economy combined with a weak international economic outlook, presents real challenges for Ireland achieving any form of sustainable economic recovery,” said NERI economist, Dr Micheál Collins. “Without growth, government’s borrowing targets look ambitious and call into question the feasibility of the adjustment path currently being pursued.”

Published today, the Quarterly Economic Observer also includes an assessment of the Northern Ireland economy, where it has been forecast that output will fall by 1 per cent  in 2013, while employment is expected to rise by 0.4 per cent.

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