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LAST UPDATE | 8 Nov 2024
AFTER MONTHS OF speculation, Taoiseach, Simon Harris, has given us the election date. It seems an opportune time and most people are ready to get this done.
Suitably warmed up from the celebrity sideshow of banal nothingness that is US politics, we are going to be treated to a proper election campaign. I say that of course with apologies to all my political friends who seem interested in that American stuff. For years, they tell me how they love it, but I see nothing in it.
A US campaign where their own parties destroy the candidates in the selection process, where nobody really meets the candidates, where it’s all about money raised and media clips and nobody understands anyway seems a bit dull to me. Not to mention that in the United States, they seem unable to find two decent candidates to run.
So, the grown-ups can get back to business now as we turn to face our own election. This is going to be a somewhat strange one. The timing seems right for Fine Gael, but it’s not like it’s amazing timing, more the best that might be hoped for.
Back in 2011, the Irish people decided to unravel a century of political construction completely. We are still working our way through what comes after that. It is hard to say if it will be any clearer after this election is done but another step will have been taken at least.
Fine Gael will go into this bounding in confidence. You can expect high energy from Simon Harris and the firm message that in a world gone mad, best to stick to what we know. The gurus will give us, responsible, strong and controlled Simon, with a little dash of fun here and there. But it’s not really in the leader’s stakes that this is won and lost. There are some harsh realities on the ground. We do not face one election but a different election in every single constituency, all tentatively pulled together by whatever zeitgeist sucks up the eternally undecided.
There are some realities. For all the strength FG appear to have, it is about how stable their vote is. There is no swing so far. FG for most of its existence has lived in polls between 20-25%. They are still there. Their best feature is that during the financial crisis and after it in government their base never left them.
They will come back in that region again and on a good day will hope that if a swing comes to them, they might go higher for this election. But their aim will be to get some form of the current coalition back in power.
Harris knows Michéal Martin has nowhere to go. FF will desperately try to create that difference with FG, but Michéal Martin is in a cul de sac where he cannot form an alternative government because he has shut the door on Sinn Féin. FF could only get that coalition in place with a new leader.
Fianna Fáil is still strong in many constituencies if only a shadow of its former self. However, on the ground, they will believe they can close the gap to FG and win seats that national polls won’t show. Yes, social media will play a part, yes campaign ads and slogans will have their role. But the hard yards will still be put in by organisations on the ground and in your community. We are still more likely to be influenced by friends and family than anything else. So, it is essential for parties to insert themselves into your friend groups and get repeatable messages passing from one person to the next.
Fianna Fáil is the party that is still in flux. Its vote is half of what it used to be, and it still has no real vision for where the party is going. However, it does still have a reputation on the ground for keeping it local.
Some of its vote has gone to Sinn Féin. Now, this is probably the most interesting party in the election. It’s terrible timing for them. Back before the locals, Sinn Féin’s high polling was halted. Largely due to the fact that the party has had a meteoric rise and is struggling with understanding its base now. It is unclear in far too many areas. It supports environmental protection, but not where that might have a tough message for change or rules. It supports immigration, but not if that is awkward in some communities.
More recently, Sinn Féin has begun to have trust issues too. Mary Lou McDonald proved to be an excellent leader on the front foot in 2020. But recently has appeared afraid to lead. Trying to see what the party wants or what people might like, rather than being comfortable enough in her position to force the party and others to follow. This will be a test. However, if they can find a definitive and brave policy, SF could yet make a comeback. Without it though, they will suffer. They may need to amputate some of their new base.
We will see great sideshow battles as Labour and the Social Democrats fight for supremacy in their long journey to what we all know is an eventual merger. What one has, the other lacks and both occupy a broadly similar space.
With the Greens, we are told to expect a wipe out. Again. That too may be premature. There is no doubt it will be a difficult election for them, but there was a pattern in local elections where it was not as bad as feared. The environment is still a major concern especially in urban areas and with clever prioritisation the Greens might save some seats on transfers as people may desert them in their number 1 vote but might return to them later down the ballot.
It seems though according to polls we are quite undecided. Thankfully there is little sign yet of us all going crazy and voting for some of the wilder fringes… but we are tempted at times.
Remember I spoke of that lost Fianna Fáil vote? Most of it is still wandering about looking for a home. And when you are undecided, it’s easier to trust one person than a party, so Independents tend to suck it up. How big this group is will decide a lot in the next government. However, while this group has given us some brilliant individuals, it also gives us many who keep most of their policies unclear. Who jump on a local issue or talk up a particular policy with no fear of ever being responsible for delivery. We should all really take a wider look than that and seek the independents who have a broad and fully formed policy basis, as they may yet be in government.
So, enjoy the posters, don’t moan about it. Enjoy the house calls, the street meets, the handshakes, the banter and the flyers. It’s all part of our wonderful and very deeply personal process. This time around, politicians are, for the first time in my memory, genuinely afraid for their safety. That is a tragic thing that I hope we can dispel over the coming weeks as we welcome our opportunity to be heard.
One final thing perhaps. Challenge yourself as a voter. Don’t fall for the comforting lie over the inconvenient truth. Try to ask “Am I voting for something I just want to hear or am I voting for the person who is actually being honest?”. It’s not easy, but give it ago.
Johnny Fallon is a political commentator, author and voice of ‘The Johnny Fallon Podcast’.
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Uncontrolled immigration , Children’s Hospital , Housing , Scoliosis , Hospital waiting lists , Homeless , Neutrality in danger , Vulture Funds , Crime , RTE Bailout , Bike Shed and on and on . That’s the list of FF FG GP “achievements” over the term of this government . So tell me Simon and Micheal and Roderick , if re-elected what if anything will you do differently next time ?
@Jim Ryan: difference? I suppose their wages is going up again.
@Jim Ryan: nothing like trump,will waste another 5 years.
@Jim Ryan: The cake is a certain size. Bickering over the size of slices is ongoing. At least FF and FG are making the cake bigger not driving enterprises out of existence because of a Marxist illusion.
@Colette Byrne: 4 years you uneducated dope
@Jim Ryan: Our Neutrality? Our Constitution says that our armed forces cannot go into action without authority from the Oireachtas. That’s it. There is NO mention of neutrality. Our neutrality is a ‘custom’, not any legally ir constitutionally binding decision m
@thomas molloy: I’m no Marxist . We have a housing crisis and can’t/won’t house our own Irish people but it’s no trouble to our Government to house 200,000 Ukrainians . We can build modular houses for them . But Irish people don’t get a look-in when it comes to housing with this Government . Then we have asylum seekers here who should NEVER have been allowed into Ireland . We have Irish politicians smugly speaking about “Ireland’s International Obligations” to accommodate refugees and asylum seekers , but you won’t hear a word out of those same politicians on their Obligations to us the Irish people .
@Jim Ryan: Vote for Islamo SF. Your immigration will be even better.
@Jim Ryan: Bla-bla-bla. Professional moaner.
@Jim Ryan: Apart from housing, none of those things effect the majority of Irish people but agreed they do nothing
@K O: typo doesn’t make me a dope, you mo£on.
@Sean O’Dhubhghaill: This is correct. What you omit is that the majority of Irish people, time and again, have shown that they support neutrality. It is a constitutional imperative that the will of the people be respected, IMHO
@Colette Byrne: But it’s not just a typo, is it?
@Darth O’Leary: Fine, as long as it’s not done like Brexit. Vote first, then decide what it means. The full, clear and definitive meaning of ‘neutral’, in the Irish context, must be clear FIRST. Personally, the present article is fine by me.
@Sean O’Dhubhghaill: A vote would be fantastic but it’s not welcome by FFG because they know the answer they’d get
First we will be told lies and then broken promises otherwise same as usual
@pauley870: You are very hard on the media. It’s early days to know who they will support.
@thomas molloy: You’re obsessed with the media.. I’d say take a break from it lad. Both main stream and Social.. judging by the drivel you post, it’s not serving you very well.. go hit a sliotar up a mountain for yourself.
@Brian: We all should be focusing on the media as it is most voters source of information/bias. Eg if the media had fact checked Boris Johnson’s claims Brexit would not have happened.
@thomas molloy: Listen, plenty of ‘media’ fact checked BJs bullsht during the campaign.. if people reading the sun and other such rags want that to be their only source of information.. thats on them.. the information and facts are out there across all media platforms, and whilst it’s getting harder to access it some regards.. with all the other bs around it..this incessant banging of your anti media drum is tiresome.. I mean to say where are you getting all your unbiased 100 per cent factual news from.. please enlighten me. ?
We can expect lots of false smiles, unwanted knocks on the door and promises that will undoubtedly be broken. What else would you expect coming up to an election?
I expect the Polls to be wrong, again.
@Jack Cass: wishful thinking unfortunately
@Nigel Hayden: No way, the entire planet is turning away from treasonous leftists.
@Jack Cass: I’d say your dreaming nailed on sf won’t lead any government
we can expect a lot of lies, false promises and very woke oriented bulls…
I know who I’ll be voting for. I imagine most of us do. Can we just skip to the voting bit?
@honey badger: tell me who? I really don’t know who to vote for apart from not the current ones.
@Basildon Joe: Vote for whoever you want. Just make sure you do vote.
@honey badger: answer my question please I need guidance
@Basildon Joe: Should I cut the crusts off your sandwiches, too?
@honey badger: please help me yes.
@honey badger: a lot of undecideds out there, apparently..
@Basildon Joe: Vote nationalist
@FlipBip: What does that mean?
@Basildon Joe: Labour, Greens, and Social Democrats. Between them they are running more than enough candidates to form a government, if enough people vote for them
@lesidees: a nice thought, but highly unlikely!
@lesidees: maybe I’ll go labour or are they too woke?
@lesidees: Ah Greens tho. Regardless of how much ‘climate’ triggers people, incompetence should never be rewarded.
@lesidees: Labour and Greens sold their souls to get a pop at ministerial pensions. large protest coming their way again this time as a result. Labour are in terminal decline and might only have AK-47 in the house next time. Greens can probably depend on some under 40s who care about the planet but popularity is for the policy more than the party ( their result is probably the most unpredictable of all parties because they could potentially transfer all over the place and do relatively well)
Register. Decide. VOTE!! Bad governments are a result of good people not voting. REGISTER! DECIDE!VOTE!
@Sean O’Dhubhghaill: Bit of a sweeping one. Not sure you could successfully argue that but anyway. Who to vote for! OR who to vote against? Regardless nothing will be built here for decades. Any party committing to building infrastructure might get a look, any language about giving out fivers or forming governments with the current Green party will be a massive negative.
@Sean O’Dhubhghaill: bad governments are a result of people not voting?. Not true. No matter how many people vote in this country we’ll still end up with the same bad government. Simply because there isn’t an alternative.
@Ger Whelan: subjective viewpoint this Government got a lot right no angels but no alternative as they choose to defend kiddy fiddlers
Ireland has emerged as one of the most expensive countries in the European Union for goods and services. Heard on radio this morning already knew tough. More same or will something be done to help iris people . Even when can travel is more expensive for flights and parking everything a rip off here
Look after the pension who paid tax a prsi sice the we’re 16yea old
@martin finnegan: Martin, the median salary in Ireland is twice as much as most of the rest of the EU. The prices are aligned with people means. It’s basic economic you missed in school.
@Alex: Ye but the prices are nearly 3 times with other European countries
@martin finnegan: it is also one of the countries with the highest salaries and highest minimum wage.
@Alex: Explain then, why the price of a litre of milk is the same in a shop in Dublin and Clare.. yet there is 10k in the difference between the median salary in both counties.. and that’s not even taking into account low income earners, minimum wage earners and unemplyed/disabled/OAPs.. whose means are prices aligned with..? or do you even have a clue what you’re talking about..???
@Brian: don’t bother him with facts. Can’t you see he’s happier without them
@Darth O’Leary: Indeed.. glad I wasn’t subjected to the economics classes he was in school.
Loads of pretty posters and lies incoming!!
Journal could you put up a Gravy train tracker like the Santa tracker at Christmas.
No shinner vote
@Lefty Cries: why don’t you go outside & shout at the lads putting up sf posters instead of your relentless toxic bleating on here? Set your phone to measure your time spent on comments while you’re at it. All of your accounts that is.
Will FF & FG have enough of the sweet cake to “go it alone”????
@Frank Mc Carthy: hopefully
Even the journal can’t distinguish between both party’s, it was michael who told us, was that not the news of the day yesterday. Please keep up journal.
we need to vote Sinn Fein for a more equal and diverse ireland
@Billy Eyelash: Not if you want your kids safe you don’t.
@Billy Eyelash: Shalom
@Billy Eyelash: freedom for kiddy fiddlers
Empty Promises & Lies, we seem to fall for the lies as a Nation, every time. Some of these people are pathological liars.
Not to be the bearer of good news but even if FG isn’t perfect (far from it). Ireland went from 3rd world country with nothing going for it to one of the wealthiest country in Europe with taxes surplus every year. Moan as much as you can but that’s a fact.
@Alex: Just look at the state of France or the UK our next African neighbours. Social policies have its limits. In France not even 50% of people pay taxes to subsidise the other lazy 50%. No one wants that. Only invalid and elderly should get any help.
@Alex: Then stop sending millions of euros to sh!thole who never use the funds as they are supposed to be.
No votes for Mary Muslim Lou and her pedo party
Only thing I expect is a lot of broken promises.
We can expect three weeks of unmitigated b/s and lies!
Did you notice that the only person not smiling is Rodders, I wonder why
Nothing new thats for sure
Just like in US the public in Ireland are more intelligent than the world is flat Marxist incapables who want everyone negative about progress.
It is very simple what people will hear for the next 3 weeks. Lies, lies and more lies from a bunch of absolute liars.
@Gerry Lamont: All 550+ of them are liars?
I think we can expect BS piled on top of BS and all done with a straight face and genuine fake sincerity! Business as usual, really…
Handy link here to all the constituencies, incumbents, who is running, etc.
RTE news : General Election Constituency Profiles
http://www.rte.ie/news/election-24/profiles/#/general-election-constituency-profiles/
@Sean O’Dhubhghaill: Thanks for sharing. RTE provide predictions in each constituency based on “analysis”
This is very speculative and littered with unsubstantiated presuppositions. This is not the job of the national broadcaster imo. Nowhere, AFAIK, in the link does it disclose the source of this “analysis”
We can expect nothing. All proceeds go to Brussels.
Same old, same old. SSDD.
The Socialists in Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil arguing with the Socialists in Sinn Fein as to who can put forward more radical left-wing policies and who can spend more of our hard-earned money which they steal from us through taxation. You’re screwed up the creek without a paddle no matter which of the major parties that you vote for. Smaller parties like Labour and PBP are just as bad when it comes to being left-wing. There is a hegemony of opinion in Dáil Éireann and it is cancerous for the Irish people.
FG for the win!
I wish terrible things upon them.
Whoa… so many to choose from in my new exciting election… well, you all look so tempting but no point in wasting my vote, so…. I’m gonna go with The People’s Judian Front. Final answer.
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