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AT LONG LAST, after months of speculation, it seems that we have a decent, if not fully complete, idea of who will comprise the field to succeed Michael D Higgins as Uachtarán na hÉireann.
Reading between the lines of the analysis over the summer elicited from the journalists who ply their trade in and around Leinster House gave rise to a feeling as to what they really wanted to say when asked to ruminate on countless scenarios of varying plausibility: “Would they ever just get on with it?!”
Indeed, at the Kennedy Summer School in New Ross this past weekend, the conjecture regarding the putative runners and riders was incessant. Attendees received some clarity when they witnessed Higher Education Minister James Lawless become the first prominent Fianna Fáil figure to formally get behind Jim Gavin as his new party’s nominee on Friday in conversation with yours truly.
Further, those present in St Michael’s Theatre in the south Wexford town saw two hopefuls – the 35-year-old entrepreneur, Gareth Sheridan, and the member of the European Parliament, Fianna Fáil stalwart Billy Kelleher – articulate their visions.
We also know that Heather Humphreys will be the Fine Gael standard bearer and that Catherine Connolly has been endorsed by Oireachtas colleagues on the left. And it appears highly likely, though not absolutely guaranteed, that Fianna Fáil will put forward Jim Gavin.
The two big uncertainties on this front remain which, if any, of the others with no party affiliation will be on the ballot and what Sinn Féin will do. Let’s examine those matters first.
Joanna Donnelly. Nick Delehanty. Maria Steen. Gareth Sheridan. There are plenty of others who have been mentioned, yet these are evidently the sole independents currently seeking the imprimatur of the 31 city and county councils in order to advance their fledgling bids at the moment.
Without assessing the respective merits of them as people or of their messaging, it is difficult to envisage how they will qualify. Of course, councillors take their role seriously and might not appreciate dictates from above.
Nonetheless, these local representatives who are members of political parties will be subjected to a lot of pressure from headquarters not to “facilitate democracy” on this occasion. As such, those named and unnamed aspirants face a straight uphill battle to convince the four councils required. Steen and Sheridan look to be best situated; each has an outside chance of making the cut.
Whither Sinn Féin? There are no surefire options. Numerous buckets of ice cold water have been poured on the rumours that Mary Lou McDonald would run. While she is the only readily identifiable top contender within the ranks, her success or failure would pose equally sizeable conundrums. Her winning would leave Sinn Féin bereft of its star Dáil performer and capable leader; her losing would be seen as a setback.
Now, the choice is whether to rally around Catherine Connolly, as other progressive parties and groupings have, or to pick an individual who is nowhere near as “box office” as Mary Lou. Many of the Sinn Féin base are demanding the latter course of action, despite the poor performance of Liadh Ní Riada, their selection in 2018. It is not enormously surprising, therefore, that the powers that be are kicking the can down the road again and may not decide until late in September, with the 24 October polling date fast approaching.
Tempted out of retirement by the unexpected withdrawal of Fine Gael’s nominee-in-waiting, Mairead McGuinness, Heather Humphreys is a well-known political commodity. A Protestant from Monaghan, her folksy manner and criss-crossing of the country as Minister for Rural and Community Development, often bestowing gifts, have endeared her to many of her former Oireachtas colleagues. Humphreys’ record will be thoroughly scrutinised and she will be criticised trenchantly for her alleged failings when in positions of responsibility. Still, she should be strong.
Even as Billy Kelleher’s allies protest that he is in the mix to persuade a majority of the Fianna Fáil parliamentarians whose prerogative it is to choose their entrant, Jim Gavin continues to secure backers. If he manages to leap over this initial hurdle, the undeniably compelling former Dublin GAA boss and defence forces officer, who has been tasked with complicated jobs by the government and fulfilled his civic duties with gusto, will be tested as never before.
Standing for political office will be unlike anything else Gavin has done previously. He is totally untested in this arena and the general public knows literally nothing about his ideological compass. His credentials are unimpeachable on paper, but this constitutes a gamble for Micheál Martin and Co, one which they were arguably pushed to take in the absence of a candidate they recognised as a good and safe bet. We will soon see what Jim Gavin is made of.
To her credit, Catherine Connolly took the plunge early on and has assembled a grassroots movement of committed supporters who are animated by her uncompromising advocacy for social justice at home and abroad. The prospects for her to grow that coalition and draw transfers, however, have probably been diminished somewhat by the grumblings within Labour concerning her prior hostility toward the party, persistent negative media coverage of an unwise visit she made to Syria under the Assad regime, her kinship with Mick Wallace and Clare Daly, and her short-lived association with conspiracy theorist Gemma O’Doherty.
Where does all of the foregoing leave things? At this juncture, provided that it winds up a four-way contest, my guess is that the pile, added together, of first preference votes for Heather Humphreys and Jim Gavin – if the Taoiseach’s faith in him is not misplaced and he acquits himself reasonably well – will be larger than the cumulative pile of first preference votes for Catherine Connolly and the Sinn Féin nominee. It will then be down to transfers. Of course, variables abound (for example, could an anti-Government mood surface?) and much can and will change in the weeks ahead.
In terms of these known unknowns, more than one speaker at the Kennedy Summer School asserted that the televised debates will be hugely important. That’s a fact. Clashes in RTÉ and Virgin Media studios will help a substantial segment of the electorate form their opinions and have a unique capacity to make or break anyone brave enough to set foot on the stage.
We are finally in the throes of the race for the Áras. Buckle up.
Larry Donnelly is a Boston lawyer, a law lecturer at the University of Galway and a political columnist with The Journal.
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