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Anton Novoderezhkin/Getty

'Ireland needs to invest in its neutral status - is expelling a Russian diplomat the best way?'

Security expert Tom Clonan raises concerns about Ireland’s security and intelligence capacity and the strategic importance of our neutrality.

THE DECISION BY the Irish government to expel one Russian diplomat from Ireland following a nerve agent attack on Sergei Skripal and his daughter in the UK raises interesting questions about Ireland’s security and intelligence capacity, along with our perceived status as a neutral state.

According to Tanaiste Simon Coveney, the decision to expel a member of the Russian Embassy in Dublin was based on a “security-service assessment” conducted after a European Council summit in Brussels concluded that the Russian Federation was “highly likely” to have been responsible for the nerve agent attack in Salisbury.

Vladimir Putin has vehemently denied responsibility for the attack and the Russian administration has repeatedly called for evidence of their alleged involvement to be made available to them for independent review.  It is believed that the Irish government is relying on information provided to it by the British intelligence services to the effect that the Russian government was directly involved in this appalling attack.

On the balance of probabilities, Russia is likely to have been involved in Skripal’s death. When it comes to security and defence intelligence, the past behaviour of state actors is a highly reliable indicator of current practice and operations in the field.  In terms of poisoning ex-FSB agents, Russia has ‘form’ in this regard. In 2006, Alexander Litvinenko was assassinated in London – poisoned by a highly radioactive substance, polonium-210.

A chilling echo of a ‘state signature’ assassination

It would have been much easier to assassinate Litvinenko by way of shooting or even a ‘hit and run’ car accident. The manner in which he was assassinated led to a lingering, agonising death, with the use of polonium-210 a clear message that the Russian state was involved.  The use of a nerve agent in the assault on Skripal and his daughter contains within it a chilling echo of that ‘state signature’ – an explicit and clear message to all former FSB operatives that disloyalty to Putin’s regime means certain death, irrespective of the passage of time, asylum status or refuge in a relatively ‘safe’ jurisdiction such as the UK.

Hence the decision by so many EU member states – along with the United States – to expel Russian diplomats en masse to send a strong signal to the Kremlin on their “affront to the international rules-based system on which we all depend for our security and wellbeing”.

What makes Ireland unique among all of these nations taking such action is that we are the only state within the European Union or the western alliance of nations to which we belong, that cannot gather, generate, collate or analyse primary intelligence.

Ireland does not have the capacity to engage in meaningful ‘humint’ or human intelligence (spying) operations based on our own lack of resources. Neither can we engage in electronic eavesdropping – or ‘sig-int’, signals intelligence – using surveillance methods referred to as ‘national technical means’ in other EU states.

Our intelligence infrastructure has been scaled back

An Garda Siochana is the primary intelligence agency within Ireland.  It is, and always has been, the prime mover in intelligence operations within the state. During the Troubles, when there was modest investment in our policing, intelligence and military infrastructure here to counter the paramilitary threat posed by both republican and loyalist groupings, Ireland was – briefly – in a position to generate real-time intelligence.

In turn, Ireland, despite its ‘neutral’ status, was able to leverage this intelligence through international intelligence clearing facilities to trade for information and intelligence with other European states including Britain.

Ironically however, as part of the ‘peace dividend’ of the Good Friday Agreement, there has been a dramatic scaling back in our intelligence and security infrastructure over the last two decades. Ireland has not been in a position to generate meaningful intelligence – apart from routine policing matters – in over a decade.

Ireland, as a state, is now a net recipient of intelligence. As a consequence, we only receive intelligence that our European neighbours choose to reveal to us and only when it suits them and their intelligence, diplomatic and political agendas.

This is the context in which the Irish government is ‘informed’ about the latest developments involving Russia and the Russian Embassy here. Ireland does not have the capacity to competently assess or independently interrogate or verify any intelligence given to us by the UK or any other state. As a consequence, Ireland needs to tread very cautiously around information given to us by UK intelligence services whose sole mission is to serve the political agenda of Foreign Minister Boris Johnson and Prime Minister May.

Russia has been provocative

Based on previous behaviour and ‘form’, international relations between the US and Russia – with an extremely hawkish John Bolton as new Trump’s National Security Advisor – are likely to further deteriorate. Russia’s behaviour within Europe and along her borders – including Irish controlled airspace – has been provocative in recent years.

Russia has used hard power and military force along with cyber operations in both overt and covert hybrid operations to raise tensions within Europe and to test and probe her weak defences. Concurrently, Vladimir Putin has raised military spending in Russia to levels previously only seen during the Soviet era.

As we enter this turbulent period in international relations, I believe Ireland needs to seriously invest in its neutral status. We are very highly regarded internationally and are seen as an independent, non-partisan and neutral state. Our diaspora, diplomatic staff and families and the men and women of our Defence Forces have done most of the heavy lifting in this regard, ensuring that Ireland and her citizens enjoy a high level of respect and freedom of movement internationally.

Strategic importance of Ireland’s neutral status

As Europe, the United States and Russia edge closer towards proxy wars and mass propaganda operations – across traditional and digital platforms, Ireland needs to invest in a proper intelligence agency. Such an intelligence agency, I believe, would best remain within an Garda Siochana – but with closer ties and greater investment within military intelligence and the Defence Forces’ considerable IT resources.

Given international trends, I believe that our neutral status is currently of the most vital national and strategic importance. It is also of vital importance that we invest in our modest security, defence and intelligence infrastructure in order to meaningfully vindicate that neutral status.

Dr Tom Clonan is a former Captain in the Irish armed forces. He is a security analyst and academic, lecturing in the School of Media in DIT. You can follow him on Twitter here.  

  • Article image show participants in a parade marking St Patrick’s Day in Moscow last weekend. Pic: Anton Novoderezhkin/TASS via Getty Images.

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    Mute John O'Neill
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    May 2nd 2015, 1:17 PM

    Fools.

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    Mute Paul Fahey
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    May 2nd 2015, 2:25 PM

    Fick as tuck.

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    Mute The Irish Ranger
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    May 2nd 2015, 3:17 PM

    Flueless ehh… funts is what I’d say

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    Mute Jackie Culligan
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    May 2nd 2015, 10:18 PM

    Tis onshore with high walls, what’s the problem. they’ll get wet, big deal

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    Mute Paul Fahey
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    May 2nd 2015, 10:26 PM

    Jackie – there is water either side, it is a pier so they could be washed in to the sea behind them. You do it and leave your kids at home.

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    Mute Bernadette Bolger
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    May 3rd 2015, 8:41 AM

    Cupid stunts.

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    Mute Ben Redline
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    May 2nd 2015, 1:23 PM

    Ah Lads come on now, buy them an Xbox if ya want rid of em.

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    Mute Vinny Cooney
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    May 2nd 2015, 1:26 PM

    To call them gobshiites is not fair on gobshiites!

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    Mute David Carino
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    May 2nd 2015, 5:23 PM

    Sorry I’m sure he didn’t mean to insult you Vinny

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    Mute Aasif
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    May 2nd 2015, 1:20 PM

    Gobshiites

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    Mute Suzie Sunsine
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    May 2nd 2015, 1:25 PM

    Some people just have no cop on at all .

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    Mute David Conroy
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    May 2nd 2015, 4:00 PM

    Some people are so stupid you would wonder how they even figured out how to have kids in the first place !!

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    Mute RonanM
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    May 2nd 2015, 1:24 PM

    Great to see parents doing a splendid job taking care of their children…

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    Mute Ken McCarthy
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    May 2nd 2015, 1:27 PM

    But think of the amazing photos they’ll have for Facebook later, all those likes & crazy comments!

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    Mute Debbie McLoughlin
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    May 2nd 2015, 1:59 PM

    What about the lives they put at risk rescuing them if something goes wrong

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    Mute Patrick O' Brien
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    May 3rd 2015, 4:42 AM

    Yes Debbie you are 100% correct…..Surely it’s the duty of all parents to keep their children out of harms way, NOT to put them in harms way.

    They should be named and shamed, if that is possible……Totally Irresponsible Idiots..

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    Mute paperboy
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    May 2nd 2015, 1:26 PM

    People are at this again?? How stupid can u get…

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    Mute Niamhs
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    May 2nd 2015, 1:41 PM

    For some people having kids is the first of many bad parenting choices.

    125
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    Mute Christine Downey
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    May 2nd 2015, 1:34 PM

    They should be taken into care – the parents, not the children.

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    Mute Fergal Reid
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    May 2nd 2015, 1:39 PM

    I live in Howth and I wouldn’t go down the harbour today.

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    Mute Colin Moran
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    May 2nd 2015, 1:47 PM

    Genuine question: what would hypothetically be better for these kids – their mother and father who allow this OR a same sex couple who adopted them and kept them safer?

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    Mute were not jamming
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    May 2nd 2015, 2:00 PM

    Do gays are better?

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    Mute Colin Moran
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    May 2nd 2015, 2:06 PM

    ‘Do gays are better?’ Ah hmmm, I don’t know…do explain be clearer?

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    Mute paperboy
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    May 2nd 2015, 2:06 PM

    Who’s to say it wasn’t a gay couple?

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    Mute Colin Moran
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    May 2nd 2015, 2:08 PM

    That’s why I said hypothetically.

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    Mute paperboy
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    May 2nd 2015, 2:23 PM

    But why did you even say it in the first place?

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    Mute VinHeffer89
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    May 2nd 2015, 2:31 PM

    @ Colin;
    Your comment draws some interesting parallels to an encounter that I had in work the other night.
    I work in a restaurant and these regulars come in. Now, these people are minted by most people’s standards. They’re also excellent customers who regularly frequent the restaurant. As a result, I, as a supervisor, am aware of how much these people’s custom impacts the business. Therefore, I know that I, as well as the waiting staff, have to put up with their “peculiarities”, essentially, they’re big supporters of Iona, massively Catholic and are virulently on the “No” side. They’re total homophobes, basically, despite their assertions that they have “gay friends”.
    So, the female customer is well into a rant about how “she wouldn’t like to raised by two men or two women because it would obviously affect her childhood development”. I decide to play the Devil’s advocate in the limited capacity that I could.

    I asked her; suppose two drug addicts have a child, as they often do, would it not better that the child be raised by two gay parents as opposed to two drug addicts, given that the kid would be likely to emulate it’s parent and become another drain on society? I deliberately picked those words to appeal to their sentiments, but she dismissed this, saying, and I quote,
    “That never happens anymore, the children of drug addicts and alcoholics are always just taken into care and given to better foster parents”.
    I was dumbfounded, but knew better than to argue. How can you argue with one whose mind is so closed?
    The great irony is that these people consider themselves devout Christians. What happened to”love thy neighbour as yourself”?

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    Mute Colin Moran
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    May 2nd 2015, 3:24 PM

    Toddle on paperboy. The adults are talking.

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    Mute paperboy
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    May 2nd 2015, 5:04 PM

    Yeah talking sh!te.. @ Colin Moron

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    Mute Colin Moran
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    May 2nd 2015, 5:26 PM

    Just because you don’t understand something doesn’t mean it doesn’t make sense. Good lad.

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    Mute paperboy
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    May 2nd 2015, 5:58 PM

    I understood what you were trying to say but it was irrelevant and in quite bad taste too.. now take your silly comments elsewhere.. good lad

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    Mute Neal Ireland Hello
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    May 2nd 2015, 1:37 PM

    I’m just pleasantly surprised that there are still parents who actually get out and do something rather than watching TV all weekend.

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    Mute Chris Bruton
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    May 2nd 2015, 2:06 PM

    You get pleasantly surprised by 2 flies having a ride mid-air though.

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    Mute Neal Ireland Hello
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    May 2nd 2015, 2:30 PM

    And why wouldn’t I? Around us all is wonderment, if we open our eyes to it.

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    Mute Billy Cotter
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    May 2nd 2015, 1:47 PM

    If it’s that dangerous surely the coastguard should close the area off

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    Mute Alan Moore
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    May 2nd 2015, 1:29 PM

    In other news, don’t let you kids climb trees, cycle, or run. No fun allowed, by order of the government. How many kids have been killed in Ireland by freak waves?

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    Mute Lolo
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    May 2nd 2015, 1:38 PM

    1 would be too many Alan that’s the bloody point!

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    Mute Alan Moore
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    May 2nd 2015, 1:50 PM

    I know people have been swept into water in the Aaron islands, or anywhere off the Atlantic Ocean, but a national news story about Howth, just an excuse for busybodies to call parents stupid.

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    Mute Robyn Morton
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    May 2nd 2015, 1:59 PM

    Oh Alan, nobody is saying the kids aren’t to have fun. This is not about that. You try holding on to a kid, and keep your own footing, when you are caught off guard by how much force there can be in those waves. You get lucky, both of you just get soaked. Unlucky, you, or the child, or both get washed off the pier. Then what happens. Someone has to go in after you. Again, lucky, you’re rescued. Unlucky, someone DIES!

    And this isn’t a national story about a little harbour in Howth. This is a reminder to stop and think before doing something stupid, endangering yourself and your children!

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    Mute Chris Bruton
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    May 2nd 2015, 2:07 PM

    It was a recommendation by an expert, Alan – not an order. Get with it.

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    Mute Alan Moore
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    May 2nd 2015, 2:28 PM

    That is not true, many people in the comments have called for the kids to be put into state care where over 12 children die every year (according to the Journal), much more dangerous than waves. I am not from Howth, I don’t know what these waves are like, but I encourage my kids to play sports, cycle, ride horses and fly planes, boys need some danger in their lives. The comments I see here make me feel, that the people here have never had a connection with their children, never really been with them in the moment, and not giving a damn what busybodies say. Maybe the waves are too high, but calling for kids to be put into care is sick.

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    Mute Alan Scott
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    May 2nd 2015, 2:33 PM

    I wonder why someone would make a comment like this one?

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    Mute Alan Moore
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    May 2nd 2015, 2:41 PM

    Do you mean your comment or mine, if you are talking about your own comment, it is genius, it is almost like, I am seeing myself, writing a comment, but, if I can see myself writing a comment, who am I? The person writing the comment or the person seeing myself writing the comment?

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    Mute Paul Roche
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    May 2nd 2015, 5:17 PM

    Good points Alan.
    Remember that the latest cover-ups about child abuse are not of Church institutions either. So more children die in care in Ireland than are washed off piers.
    This is news?

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    Mute Claire Hegarty
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    May 2nd 2015, 5:44 PM

    Think about the coast guards risking their own lives to save these idiots.

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    Mute alltalk
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    May 2nd 2015, 5:45 PM

    totally agree….im not saying it’s the right thing bringing kids to howth today…….but at least the family are out together doing something…..and trying to have fun together…..give them a break…im sure we’ve all made bad judgement calls when kids are begging for a bit of craic…..

    it must be great to be so perfect!!

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    Mute Alan Moore
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    May 2nd 2015, 6:43 PM

    Well said alltalk

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    Mute lizzy
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    May 2nd 2015, 11:24 PM

    some of my fondest childhood memories involved near death experiences

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    Mute Alan Moore
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    May 3rd 2015, 9:26 AM

    Love it

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    Mute Paul Roche
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    May 3rd 2015, 9:33 AM

    I know. It’s so true!
    Who could ever forget their first self-sustained concussion?
    - Unless of course it’s linked to amnesia…

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    Mute alltalk
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    May 3rd 2015, 11:14 AM

    Ha ha definitely. I remember cousins of ours would come visit us down the country and their parents were so uptight……not allowing them jump too high on the trampoline…no climbing trees etc…
    on the otherhand my parents encouraged us to do everything and I must say it develops a sense if adventure alot of people don’t have these days …

    my brother wasn’t great at school,totally adhd by these days standards not to mention dyslexic…He found it difficult. However my parents encouraged his adventurous side to be developed……..constantly out and about.every Sunday when most parents couldnt be arsed doing anything with their kids we were off on adventures with my dad..In forests..up mountains ..im the sea…all the neighbours in tow…….we would have definitely been the ones in that photo…….and no it never ended up with
    coastguards being called…

    anyway.. my brother is now a fireman and a paramedic. got a degree in international world disaster management…European surf lifeguard medalist and internationally recognised big wave surfer…..

    im just really glad for him that he grew up in a house where parents took a chance,had a bit of craic,connected with their kids and encouraged them to have a sense of adventure…

    I know dragging them into the sea in rough conditions isn’t thde smartest thing…
    but neither is wrapping them in cotton wool

    mollycoddled kids = paranoid adults

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    Mute Alan Moore
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    May 4th 2015, 9:10 PM

    :-)

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    Mute Eddie Grady Grady
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    May 2nd 2015, 1:31 PM

    The kids should be taken off them how stupid is this no common sense what so ever.

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    Mute Joe Traynor
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    May 2nd 2015, 1:59 PM

    Maybe the Harbour Master should close the pier, not everyone is familiar with sea conditions and the dangers of powerful waves.

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    Mute George Vladisavljevic
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    May 2nd 2015, 4:06 PM

    People underestimate the power of water and much too often they realise it much too late.

    Stay well aware for the rough sea as every once in a while a larger wave will arrive and could drag you out to sea and you will not be able to do anything about it. If you get injured along the way you will more than likely drown,

    Exposing ones children to this danger is criminal.

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    Mute Trevor Beale
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    May 2nd 2015, 1:31 PM

    Gowls!!

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    Mute Alan Scott
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    May 2nd 2015, 2:21 PM

    By putting their children’s lives at risk the parents are also relying on the overstretched emergency service’s. Complete and utter mindless idiots

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    Mute Mark Gerard Lochlain
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    May 2nd 2015, 3:36 PM

    Why would anyone want to go near Howth Pier on a day as dismal as today!!!!!! Even the Harbour Master stayed at home in bed!!!

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    Mute LesBehan
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    May 2nd 2015, 1:27 PM

    3 counts of children endangerment and all the Coast Guard does is take pictures FFS!

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    Mute A.C
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    May 2nd 2015, 1:29 PM

    @lesbehan how do you know this is all the coast gaurd did? Wouldn’t the idea of the pictures be to highlight to others the stupidity of these so called responsible parents! !!

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    Mute Periguin
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    May 2nd 2015, 1:47 PM

    yea, why did’nt they film it

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    Mute An Observer
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    May 2nd 2015, 1:48 PM

    LesBehan,

    You are only aware of the 3 acts of child endangerment because of the photos. All the warnings in the world can be written,showing us what people are doing can help a lot more.

    The person standing with their child under the wall waiting for a wave to come crashing over them must be up for a Darwin Award.

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    Mute LesBehan
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    May 2nd 2015, 2:03 PM

    Howth Garda station is less than a 10 minute walk from where that picture was taken. My point is this idiot such be report to Gardaí and arrested for putting these children lives in danger. It’s not the children’s fault the guy is a moron but could easily lose their lives as a result of it.

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    Mute Paul Roche
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    May 2nd 2015, 5:26 PM

    And the Gardaí did what?

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    Mute Tom Smith
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    May 2nd 2015, 3:20 PM

    Can see the pier from the house and currently two people walking on the upper level. Guessing they are not Journal readers.

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    Mute fockoffski
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    May 2nd 2015, 1:39 PM

    Probably couldn’t afford the water so they took them out for their weekly bath

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    Mute Periguin
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    May 2nd 2015, 1:45 PM

    Oh would ye ever fockoffski

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    Mute fockoffski
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    May 2nd 2015, 10:48 PM

    I tried but I didn’t have the hawk eye to see where I was going

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    Mute Paul Roche
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    May 2nd 2015, 4:59 PM

    I have childhood memories of being in places like this on days like this and I love the fact that I have them.
    I remember worrying if the pier would be washed away. It wasn’t, nor were those memories.
    How sad to think that it’s somehow wrong for me to have them.

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    Mute Alan Moore
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    May 3rd 2015, 9:31 AM

    Your the man, Paul, well said. The peanut gallery are going to hate you.

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    Mute mcgoo
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    May 2nd 2015, 2:18 PM

    Take the children’s allowance off them lads. No mercy.

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    Mute Ivorpabst
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    May 2nd 2015, 4:39 PM

    You need a licence to own a dog, & Dogs in Distress come & inspect you, your house, & garden before entrusting you to take on one of their rescue dogs.

    Pity those toddlers being put in harms way by their idiotic parents.

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    Mute LesBehan
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    May 2nd 2015, 1:27 PM

    3 counts of child endangerment and all the Coast Guard does is take pictures FFS!

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    Mute Chris Bruton
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    May 2nd 2015, 2:09 PM

    Yeah, you said that already.

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    Mute Mark O'Hagan
    Favourite Mark O'Hagan
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    May 2nd 2015, 5:38 PM

    The coastguard shouldn’t bother issuing warnings – evolution is suppose to get rid of the idiots. Tough on their kids – but they have already inherited their parents genes – including the one that governs stupidity.

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    Mute Science of beer
    Favourite Science of beer
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    May 2nd 2015, 7:04 PM

    Darwin awards

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    Mute Hen Ri How Weird
    Favourite Hen Ri How Weird
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    May 3rd 2015, 8:03 PM

    Absolute click bate, I have walked this peir hundreds of times, the picture of the parent with his children is taken about 200 meters from where the waves break.

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    Mute Niall Doheny
    Favourite Niall Doheny
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    May 3rd 2015, 12:52 AM

    Handycaps !!!

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    Mute Marjorie Magee
    Favourite Marjorie Magee
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    May 2nd 2015, 6:10 PM

    Idiots .

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