THE IRISH ELECTORATE is a fickle force. In the 2011 general election it was inconceivable to most that Fianna Fáil could ever hope to dominate future politics. The party was punished for its role in the financial crisis, paving the way for a Fine Gael-Labour coalition. Fast forward three years and FF has taken more than a quarter of the local election votes.
Labour leader Eamon Gilmore has vowed to vacate his post from 4 July. Labour took a pummelling at the polls, with Gilmore arguing it has been harshly penalised for the actions of the coalition. Taoiseach Enda Kenny believes the Irish electorate is naïve about the consequences of the bank bailout.
What the coalition has failed to grasp is the electorate’s disillusionment with the establishment. It has been wrung dry of hope. It is not that the coalition implemented the previous government’s bank bailout programme that has enraged voters. It is the broken promises which have ignited despair.
The electorate has been highly patronised by the most recent government. Everyone knew there was no escape from the brutal effects of the financial crisis. The Celtic Tiger rose and fell in the boom and bust motion of modern economics. Ireland played a greedy role in its own demise, but was a victim too. The economy was too infantile to cope with the stream of liquidity pumped into its property market. Ireland’s representatives came under a sort of political peer pressure to keep pace with their counterparts from Germany, France and the UK.
Clear message to the coalition
The party on the tip of everyone’s tongues right now is Sinn Féin. Some are aghast at the idea of the Republican party getting into a position of power south of the border. Others are delighted at the prospect of a genuine shake-up in the political landscape. Many believe Sinn Féin would fail to live up to its promises if it ever got into government, therefore leaving it open to the same fate as Labour.
Independent candidates faired excellently in the local elections. Parliaments are operated through parties, however, and the inefficiency of working with such a pool of individuals in a coalition would be unattractive to either FF or FG.
The results of the local and European elections have sent a clear message to the coalition: the system isn’t working. Indeed, voters from across Europe have voiced their discontent as evidenced by the victories of the National Front and UKIP, among others.
Still, the Irish example is different. It has neither the population nor immigration levels of large European countries.
Know your place
Germany, France and the UK are former imperialists with populations of over 60m. Ireland is a small Republic with a strong agricultural tradition. Would it be better served by a political system that avoided modelling itself on countries with significant economies of scale? Ireland has been attempting to punch above its weight since it gained independence. Is it time it accepted its periphery status and concentrated on bettering itself?
Or should it go a step further and champion itself as a periphery to avoid pressure to concede outright to capitalism? If it could escape the developed economy rating, would it get a better deal from investors? And would politicians finally accept a pay cut if they realised they were representing such a small player on the global stage?
Ireland does not have the reputation or scale to carry the type of debt levels of the US or the UK. It is not industrialised enough to build up a surplus as great as Germany’s. It does not have the same clout in the EU as France. Its strength lies in agriculture and tourism and it should be marketing these beyond the US and the UK. It remains to be seen how the UK’s decision to cut its corporation tax will impact on the Irish pharmaceutical and technology sectors.
If the Irish political elite could curb its temptation to ‘run with the big boys’ it might find it has the resources to fix problems at home. If it could listen to the distresses of its people, rather than rhetoric from across the Irish Sea and beyond, it might just make a difference. But until Ireland has a political party willing to acknowledge the vanity and superficiality of the current system, it makes no difference who is in power. The real question is whether Irish politicians are too hungry for foreign approval to make a real difference at home. If they are, the electorate is doomed to be neglected.
Natasha Browne is an Irish journalist living in London. She writes for a financial magazine and is fascinated by the relationship between politics and economics.
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