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THE IRISH GOVERNMENT is taking a cautious approach to reacting to the UK local election results, which are still being counted.
UK prime minister Keir Starmer has said he takes responsibility for Labour’s “tough” local election results but has vowed to carry on as British prime minister.
With the first 40 of 136 councils declared, Labour have lost more than 200 councillors as well as losing control of eight local authorities.
Reform UK has gained 270 seats and control of one council, the Liberal Democrats have gained 29 seats and a council, and the Greens have gained 23 seats, with the Conservatives down 61, and independents, ratepayer parties and Your Party combined down a total of 59.
But what does the rise of Reform mean for Ireland, and are there jitters in government about what might come in a UK general election?
Asked for his reaction today at the North-South Ministerial Council in Antrim, Taoiseach Micheál Martin said he did not want to embroil himself in the politics of another jurisdiction.
“I would caution against extrapolating from a local election the result of a subsequent general election. They are two different beasts completely, electorally. And we know that from experience and from history.
“That said, I think there is increasing fragmentation across politics everywhere. If you look across the European Union, its coalition governments, more or less in quite a majority of states, we’ve a fragmented sort of scenario in the Republic, so you are witnessing more and more fragmentation in politics,” said Martin.
The Taoiseach said what people have had to put up with over the last decade could be feeding into their voting, with Martin namechecking Brexit, the pandemic, the war in Ukraine, the energy crisis and inflation, and now the war in the Middle East.
The public are “taking a lot” and that is creating anxiety out there, he said.
“People are afraid of the future. They’re afraid of what’s happening, and they’re very concerned. They’re very anxious about whether the world is going to settle down? And it’s one shock after the other. I think that’s impacting on politics more generally,” he added.
However, speaking about the relationship between Ireland and the UK, Martin said it is “very good” right now.
“We will continue to have that relationship,” he added.
“I think we need to be careful here, the election, the count isn’t over. We need to be careful of sort of suggesting that this local election means a certain result in a general [election], it doesn’t. You need to be very careful about that and not come to conclusions,” said the Taoiseach.
Tánaiste Simon Harris was also careful in his comments, stating that Ireland has worked long to disentangle ourselves from British elections.
“So I’m not going to comment on an election that takes place in a different country, other than I am reminded of the time President Clinton made the point that the people have spoken and then might just take a bit of time to work at exactly what they’ve said,” said Harris.
Oftentimes, an election result and what it means is a “little bit more nuanced or complicated” than initially thought.
“There are multi factors, as the Taoiseach has suggested, certainly politics right across the western world is more fragmented and more contested now than it was in the past. But it is a statement of fact to say that the relationships between Ireland and the UK, and I believe the UK and the EU, are at their best that they have been since Brexit, and there has been no change of government in the UK,” he added.
Privately, senior sources in government stated that the results coming out of the UK today are a “huge shift”, but said that what that means for the Labour leadership and the government down the line remains to be seen.
They said that a huge amount of work has gone on behind the scenes in repairing burnt bridges since Brexit, and it would not be good for that to be washed away.
Another also sounded caution, stating that these are just local elections. However, they said that obviously what Reform stands for is a worry.
They said whether general election results in the UK will go the same way is too early to say, though they agreed that a Reform government could spell trouble for the cause of a united Ireland, with fears Nigel Farage could bounce Ireland into a referendum that it is not prepared for.
This senior source said local elections allow people to send a message, but it is often the case that when it comes to a general election they want stability. They said it was still “ominous”, particularly the anti-immigrant sentiment and the calls for protectionism.
While the results today might not be a major cause of concern for Ireland right now, former Taoiseach Leo Varadkar argued in his Sunday Times column last week that the Irish government must prepare for a reset in British politics and what it might bring.
“Medium-term contingency planning needs to be done,” wrote Varadkar.
Such scenarios have already been raised in the Dáil recently, with Social Democrats Gary Gannon stating that there is a problem with Ireland legislating on migration right now.
“Within a short space of time, we could have a scenario whereby Nigel Farage is the prime minister in Britain and the Rwanda policy may be on the table again, resulting in an increased level of volatility… We are legislating for the moment on the assumption that everything will be as it is when we know that is not the case,” he said.
It’s one thing not to jump to conclusions, but it is another not to prepare for the unexpected. Whether the government is doing this remains to be seen.
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