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THE CHANGE IN the polls has given fresh hope to Sinn Féin that it may be able to upturn expectations at the outset of the campaign – putting several constituencies and gains in contention for the party.
Mary Lou McDonald’s party has overtaken Fine Gael according to an Irish Times/Ipsos B&A poll published Monday.
Sinn Fein is on 20% with voters according to that poll – up one point since the last poll two weeks ago – while Fianna Fail is marginally ahead on 21%.
According to party strategists who spoke to The Journal in recent days, they believe the polls are still understating their support and that SF is now on the cusp of achieving a number of gains – several of which were being discounted only weeks ago.
They have been hoping that last night’s leaders’ with McDonald debate will have given them enough of a boost to see roughly half of their 71 candidates elected.
Sinn Féin’s director of elections Matt Carthy insisted its real position lies “above where the polls that have been published have us”, explaining this is based on the responses received by canvass teams around the country.
“We’re very happy with the way the campaign has been going,” said Carthy, who is also the party’s TD for Cavan-Monaghan.
Over the last fortnight, the party believes it’s been greatly boosted in its bid to hold all 33 seat that they currently have.
This covers several seats that the party was concerned about – including Wexford, Tipperary South and Cork East – but which they now feel are looking safer.
Campaigners also reckon they have a much better chance of retaining a spot in five-seat Carlow-Kilkenny, which was being written off initially after Kathleen Funchion was elected to Europe. It’s gone with a two-candidate strategy via Carlow and south Kilkenny to try and ensure a vote.
It also expects to still be in the hunt for a seat in Galway East – candidate Louis O’Hara fell short on a seat there by around 400 votes at the last general election. An extra slot is available this time as it’s become a four-seater.
It had been expected to be a struggle in Clare after its 2020 TD Violet-Anne Wynne left the party.
Wynne is now standing as an Independent but the party believe its Shannon-based county councillor Donna McGettigan will claim a seat.
Non-aligned campaigners on the ground in Clare have also told The Journal that they can see a turn in sentiment towards Sinn Féin after the campaign got underway.
However, party insiders don’t feel like a seat in Laois is likely for them at present as its former Public Accounts Committee chairperson Brian Stanley is standing there as an independent republican candidate. Maria McCormack is the party standard bearer for the election after Stanley left the party amid controversy this year.
In Cork North Central, Sinn Féin had added its press officer Joe Lynch to the ticket here alongside its current TD Thomas Gould who easily surpassed the quota last time with over 3,000 votes more than needed.
The party is hoping that Lynch can finish ahead of a range of left candidates including People Before Profit-Solidarity TD Mick Barry Labour and the Social Democrats, and benefit from their transfers.
A similar strategy is hoped for in the capital where the party are aiming to get two seats in a number of constituencies.
In Dublin South Central, veteran TD Aengus Ó Snodaigh was elected with more than two quotas last time around.
His running mates now are councillors Máire Devine and Daithí Doolan. While both successful in June’s local elections, they had markedly different ways of getting back on Dublin City Council: Devine picked up the last seat in the South West Inner City while long-time councillor Doolan comfortably topped the poll in Ballyfermot–Drimnagh.
The party believes the recent shifts provide enough to get a second TD here.
Elsewhere, its TD Paul Donnelly had almost double the quota in Dublin West four years ago – but the party is less confident of a second seat here. Its councillor Breda Hanaphy is up against Green Party leader Roderic O’Gorman as well as People Before Profit-Solidarity councillor Ruth Coppinger and Labour’s John Walsh.
In Dublin Mid-West, the party is expecting to retain the two seats it secured in 2020. Housing spokesperson Eoin O Bróin and mental health spokesperson Mark Ward are helped by the constituency becoming a five-seater.
On an uncomfortable day for Sinn Féin last June at the local elections, Waterford turned into one of their few bright spots: SF displaced Fianna Fáil in some rural areas to become the joint largest party on the council with Fine Gael.
In Dungarvan, its full-time councillor Conor D McGuinness, a former staff worker in Brussels for Sinn Féin, has been added to run alongside health spokesperson David Cullinane.
It was not for nothing that their campaign was kicked off in this area on the first full day of campaigning, with Mary Lou McDonald visiting Dungarvan the day after Simon Harris officially called an election.
Sinn Féin is banking on McGuinness as the only candidate from a major party based in west Waterford, which was without a TD for the first time in decades after John Deasy retired from Fine Gael.
Cullinane received a historic 38 percent of first preferences in 2020 – almost two quotas – and would have easily added a second TD for the party if they had stood one.
West Waterford still makes up just around a third of the overall voting population so the party would still need a strong vote from there, while fighting off challenges from Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and outgoing Independent TD Matt Shanahan who have all been targetting the same area for votes.
But Sinn Féin campaigners have gone from hoping they were in the hunt for a second seat to now feeling they’re “nearly back at 2020 levels” of support locally and have become strongly confident they’ll see McGuinness elected.
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First half 24′ SF were the party of self inflicted implosions……. last couple weeks FG seem to have taken over that ‘brief’
@Frank Mc Carthy: To be fair, SF has only marginally gained in recent weeks. They have still lost ~50% support. FG has marginally lost support. Neither is an implosion. SF had been on a downward trajectory for 18 months or so. It’s odd that many instantly forget what happened with McDonald and her very delayed admission/ response to the photo sending senator (not to mention their press officer), but feel Harris being ignorant to a care worker is unforgivable.
@honey badger: To be fair FG vote has only gone downhill each election since their initial high after the crash protest vote.
@Michale Kane: FF have brought out the gimp to bat for them lol
No comments open on Article about Simon not wanting to be seen campaigning with Twix McGahon .. LOL
Hey mike jim paul doe…. give us a dig out to help pull down these FG posters every where. No sense in their staying up at this point….. bigly… lol lol lol.
Trump trolls voting for FG. Says it all really.. and even though they don’t have a single vote between them.. :)
@Michale Kane: you are obviously a FF gimp
Haven’t had a single candidate from any party to my door. And I’m in an urban area. I had questions. Are they dodging? (More so than usual)
@lastfewchocices: Aren’t you lucky!
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@lastfewchocices: Same here, not a sight of any of them so far.
@lastfewchocices: It’s a good thing! The never-to-be-read flyers are another waste of everyones time and money.
@lastfewchocices: only people to call into ours about the election were people from friends of the earth. They aren’t even running anyone in the election. But they still feel the need to tell me climate change should be my primary concern when voting and I shouldn’t consider any candidates that are not taking climate change seriously.
@Ger Whelan: As is their right. Anyone can say anything. You don’t have to accept it.
@Ger Whelan: nobody calls to your house because it’s stink
@Ger Whelan: Big deal. Ger then needs to comment about it on the journal. No big deal either. Life goes on surprisingly.
12/1 on the bookies for Sinn Fein to get into government. Just forget about it. It was so simple for Sinn Fein to get support, all they had to be was against MASS immigration and they would have gotten votes. Instead they never stated what their position was, except went to mosques around the country and gave speeches. As a Marxist party, Sinn Fein are by default pro immigration, as Marxism extremely opposes any form of nationalism or homogeneity. Sinn Fein are banking on both foreigners to come in and vote for them, and the few Irish communists who don’t work and love free handouts. Thankfully the tide is shifting all across Europe, right wing parties are getting into power. Looks like we have to deal with the centrist/centre left parties for another term though (FF&FG).
@Maximilian Kolbe: SF is not, and has never been, Marxist. It has always been a one-issue (32-county state) party encompassing all points of the political spectrum (i.e. no-wing).
@Brendan O’Brien: They have been Brendan and very recently, too. My interactions with a lad in Cork in the 80s a proper socialist sell the mag pub to pub , and was willing to debate on the ideolgy became a SF councillor, they are deeply Marxist, even to the point of not recognising the Republic as ” a country ” that changed in 1986, and in 1997 they had their first TD to actually take a seat……
And it hasn’t changed yesterday in the EU parliament both MEPs voted against the commission, they have never lost their Marxist roots.
@Paul O’Mahoney: My point is that SF could, and did, accommodate that person and also extremely conservative and religious farmers and the likes. That’s what I mean when I say ‘all points of the political spectrum’.
All that members had to have in common was a ‘Brits Out’ mentality: their reasons could be very different. And historically SF was very anti-EU, and campaigned for ‘no’ in all the referendums.
@Maximilian Kolbe: Sinn Fein have never been Marxist . Quite a few of them would have been socialist leaning but they’re not even socialist anymore. Plus the foreigners u mentioned coming in are not allowed vote. That’s another lie peddled by far right racists
@Paul O’Mahoney: meeting one lad 40 years ago that spouted his Marxist or socialist ideals does not make Sinn Fein a Marxist party. That’s some stretch of the imagination
@Brendan O’Brien: One issue party, nonsense and they get a lot of the left candidates in as well. Tell me, if PBP, Solidarity and Right2Change have so many issues that people agree with, why are they so low in the polls? Easy to speak like tgat but this state left behind Nationalists in a sectarian state and it’s that attitude that doesn’t help the left, try actually getting into a position where they can go into government. Sinn Fékn have never claimed to be Marxist or Communist but the irony, good relations with Cuba and Venezuela, we may not be an ist but have far better relations with left wing states. Oh, and was getting drug dealers out of council housing estates only one issue, absolute nonsense, as Sinn Féin’s constitution states, they are Socialist Democratic.
@Brian D’Arcy: ‘getting drug dealers out of council housing estates’ was all about power and control (to be able to better advance its one-issue agenda), which is what the ‘Republican Movement’ has always been about.
@Maximilian Kolbe: total nonsense
ML has stated on many occasions that the party want the young irish immigrants back
Ur too busy listening to urself talk there pal
@barry williams: Immigrants are allowed to vote. You just have to be a resident here. You baselessly throwing the term around ‘far right racists’ is the easiest way of spotting a marxist rat. You hate nationalism so bad because your own people rejected you. Now you want someone so badly to accept you so you turn to people from the other side of the world. But they won’t either.
@John Mcmahon: every party wants young Irish immigrants to return home. Name me one party that doesn’t?
@John Mcmahon: he’s a troll.ignore him and don’t respond to him
@Brendan O’Brien: Armed wing with zero respect for our Gardai
Can SF form a govt without FFG?
honest question..
@Julio’s Evil Twin: NO!
@Julio’s Evil Twin: FF and FG will win a minority of seats between them (as in the current Dáil), so everyone else could theoretically get together and form a government without them, but that’s highly unlikely.
@Julio’s Evil Twin: In a word No
No vote for Sharia Fein on Friday
@Tired Jim: funny, FF FG G are doing a great job flooding our country with Muslims, unvetted Muslim men and you blame SF, genius
So who’s going to win this election??
@Ned: The current Government thank goodness and Mary Lou cemented that last night with her disastrous comments on the economy
@Ned: Ned, my personal thoughts are…… A) a possibility of JUST FG& FF, or B) to make up the numbers they’ll get another ‘sacrafical lamb ‘ party to jump on the gravy train….. I used to think the SD’s would make the perfect patsy…. but anyone will do….SD’s, Labour, Greens or a ragtag bunch of independents. Always handy to have a ‘sacrafical lamb’ party to push towards gangplank if things get ‘sticky’….. sure, we’ll know the landscape this time next week
@Frank Mc Carthy: I was actually thinking it would be better to have a strong FF FG or FF SF coalition without a minnow tail wagging the dog situation but MM refusal not to share power with SF has burned that one, I’ll vote SF because in reality he lied about going into power with FG so anything is possible with that slieveen, it’s a case of voting for the party I dislike the least
@Bertie: Bertie, I still haven’t decided which way my #1,#2 or #3 are going…… wouldn’t ‘like’ or have any time for any of em’ in my constituency
@Ned: nobody, because no party has a hope in hell of getting an overall majority, that’s why we have coalitions
Don’t vote for a party whose military wing is responsible for gardai and Irish army murders, child sexual abuse, bank robberies, disappearing innocent people…….
@Eamon: but do vote for them if you are voting in an election in Northern Ireland, the default position of all other Irish parties for decades.
@Eamon: move out of the last century you English soccer supporter Eamon
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