MINISTER FOR FINANCE Paschal Donohoe has warned that the United States is incredibly likely to impose tariffs upon the EU in the coming weeks – and that it could result in the loss of up to 80,000 Irish jobs in the medium term.

Speaking this afternoon on RTÉ’s This Week with Justin McCarthy, Donohoe discussed the options and potential consequences of proposed tariffs on Ireland. 

When asked if there is a possibility of an economic recession in Ireland as a result of the proposed 25% tariffs on goods imported to the US from the EU, Donohoe said “it depends on many different variables”, such as whether the tariffs are temporary and the response of the rest of the world.

In the worst case scenario, Donohoe said, over the next four to five years “it’s very possible that between 50 and 80,000 jobs that would have been created or kept within this economy won’t be.”

In terms of economic growth, Donohoe estimated that in the medium term Ireland would see an impact of between two and 4% on its GDP.

Ireland has been zeroed in on by a number of American politicians as an area in which the US government can recoup tax revenue from US multinational companies. Earlier this week, US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick took part in an interview on American technology and business podcast All-In in which he said that Ireland is his “favourite tax scam”.

Lutnick said that Ireland had “all our great tech companies and great pharma companies” because of its low rate of corporation tax, and said “that’s got to end”.

In response, Donohoe said that the presence of multinational US companies in Ireland is both beneficial for Ireland through corporate tax, and for the companies in question in the US and globally.

Trump has also threatened to impose 200% tariffs on alcohol from the EU, on foot of rebuttal tariffs announced by the EU in response to the US’ wider tariffs plans. Taoiseach Micheál Martin called the threat “a very serious issue” and said that Europe must be strategic in its response. 

Shares in the owner of Jameson tumbled on the stock exchange. The Irish Whiskey Association voiced serious concern, outlining that the export value of Irish drinks to the United States is over €800 million a year.

Donohoe said that despite the EU’s engagement with the US in relation to the proposed tariffs, it is likely that significant tariffs of some scale will be applied in early April, as previously outlined by the Trump administration.