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Covid-19
Taoiseach: 'Over 2,000 cases per day would significantly challenge the contact tracing system'
The Taoiseach said there are 700 contact tracers employed.
12.06am, 23 Dec 2020
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TAOISEACH MICHEÁL MARTIN has said if the country reaches 2,000 Covid cases per day, it would be very challenging for the contact tracing system.
Speaking at Government Buildings yesterday, he announced that Ireland will introduce fresh lockdown measures beginning on Christmas Eve – with various restrictions kicking in in the following days and weeks.
He said the Government was acting “quickly and aggressively” to try to suppress the soaring case numbers.
Yesterday, a further 970 new cases of Covid-19 were confirmed in Ireland, with 13 deaths recorded.
Tánaiste Leo Varadkar said if no action was taken, and cases continues to rise at the same trajectory they are, the country could hit 2,000 cases by New Year’s Eve.
There is capacity to handle 140,000 tests per week, with the Taoiseach confirming yesterday that there are 700 contact tracers employed.
In October, when there was a spike in cases, the contact tracing system was near collapse, with the HSE being forced to ask more than 2,000 people who received a positive Covid-19 test result during a particular week to alert their own close contacts.
The HSE said at the time that this was due to the “unprecedented pressure” on Ireland’s contact tracing system over that week.
Contact tracers normally inform close contacts of infected cases of their status and help arrange for them to be tested.
When asked if the contact tracing system could handle the mounting case numbers, particularly if they hit the 2,000 mark, Martin said:
That would be very challenging, that would be difficult.
The Taoiseach said the HSE had informed him that they had increased the contact tracing workforce, confirming there are now 700 contact tracers employed.
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He added:
If you get up to 2,000 that is reaching very significant levels which would challenge contact tracing.
New restrictions
Ireland is returning to the highest level of its Covid-19 response – Level 5 – with some adjustments, such as allowing shops to remain open.
The measures will initially remain in place until January 12.
Martin said the government was making decisions on the assumption that the new UK variant of Covid-19 was already in Ireland.
“We have to act as if this mutant variant is in the country – we don’t have definitive proof, but clearly something is going on there in terms of the change, the scale and rapidity of the growth,” he said.
The Taoiseach confirmed that there is no evidence this new variant has had an impact on hospitalisations in the UK.
However, this week, Irish public health experts, such as the director of the National Virus Reference Laboratory Dr Cillian De Gascun, said the strain is “a cause for concern” but that the evidence is not there yet to say for sure that it is more infectious.
“I don’t think we have seen the evidence for that interpretation at this point in time,” he said.
Certainly there are significant case numbers in various regions of the UK and it has become the dominant strain over the last four or five weeks, certainly it’s a cause for concern. There are some genetic markers that might explain why it would be more infective, and perhaps might be more efficient at transmitting, but we haven’t seen the hard evidence for that.
Despite this, De Gascun said that due to the infection rates in the southeast of the UK it is “quite important and prudent” to operate on a precautionary basis.
Chair of NPHET’s modelling group Professor Philip Nolan also said this week:
It’s not to say the new variant is here or isn’t here, there’s no evidence that it is, there’s no need to read these rapidly high case counts as evidence that it must be here.
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“It’s clear from the level of social contact that we’re seeing that this could account for those very high growth rates,” he said.
New variant
Martin acknowledged that a body of work had to be done on the impact of the new variant, but said there has been a rise in the case numbers, regardless.
“There is without question a rapid increase in the cases – the actual reason for that – is it socialisation? Or the variant of the virus – the mutant variant? Or is it a combination of both?”
He said he spoke to UK experts yesterday morning about the new variant.
“They are confident that this variant is responsible for increased transmission. They are growing more and more confident, they have to do more research, I acknowledge that,” he said.
“But a lot of people believe it is inconceivable that it would not be in Ireland given our close proximity to the UK and people travelling over,” he said.
The Taoiseach said the government does have to apply a “precautionary principle”, stating:
“We do have to work on the basis that it’s here. I think it would be irresponsible if we worked on the basis that it wasn’t here.”
“The figures speak for themselves in terms of growth. Something different has happened in the last ten days, there is no doubt about that.”
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@Glenn Halpin: the number of contact tracers given in the past was 800 now its 700. Surely the prudent thing to do would be to hire people on a temporary basis in anticipation of rising figures not play catch up as we seem to be doing. Maybe leo will dust off the bedside manner and answer the phone again. Also where are the additional icu beds to deal with the projected rise in numbers, are they stuck in a mire of red tape or (even functional given recent reports) hoping things will be grand if ignored
@cars: But that’s not what he said, now is it? Given the opportunity, do you think people on the PUP would take up a position (i.e. temp contract) as Contact Tracing, that I bet they could easily do, for a higher wage than the €350pw they currently receive. Someone who’s just lost their job definitely is struggling on the €350. Then when a persons company opens back up, they can take back up their position. Do you think people wouldn’t want an opportunity, albeit temporary, to earn extra when out of work, honest question?
Never managed to properly recruit contact tracers so redeploying physios, environmental health officers, etc into contact tracing decimating other critical services. Whole thing is a shambles. Praying this vaccine works and they have an actual plan to roll it out.
@Peter Kelly: I’m not sure the guidelines are what will stop the virus.
Healthcare staff and patient aquired is always present and close contact with a confirmed case.
The guidelines are due to change now so you could follow the change in transmission source and test your assumptions.
All the data is available although the tracking and tracing is limited has many unknowns and community transmission csses> https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/surveillance/covid-1914-dayepidemiologyreports/
@Rob Foley: there was uproar when there was a failure in the system and people were asked for a day or to to do contact tracing… it does make sense to a point but if someone identifies you as a “close” contact then you have to isolate for 14 days and have 2 tests – how would that work for people who do not want to know.
It is the way in Sweden in part but still has the flaw that firstly you may not have the contact details if they are stored in a restaurant or on the covid app..
it does work as a backup sure, it you have a family member waiting a test then one can plan action and seek advice if the test is positive but that does not work for strangers and people who do not want to know, and I am sure there are the few that want to hide that they might have covid to avoid the fallout, too
I do not know enough about how the pieces fit together but as many prongs as possible then the better.
@Rob Foley: about a month ago the comedian David O’Doherty told us on his podcast that he was traced by the app. It’s only one case I know of but it is working..
@Rob Foley: would be the first thing I’d do I found out I had it. I’d be straight onto anyone and everyone I’d been around. Shouldn’t be up to the government to contact someone you were in contact with.
@Rob Foley: Take a look at the app less then 200000 using it. According to an earlier report it took 3 weeks before someone was notified they were in close contact.
I’d love to know how closed bars amd restaurants amd county borders is going to stop the spread. People will just meet somewhere else. All shops still open. Parks, supermarkets. Makes no sense at all.
They are a mess, we are not. Stay safe and shut her down for few. You’ll be fine if you get dosed but some poor fecker won’t see another one if we play roulette.
What ever happened to the contact tracing app? I have it installed but it never gets mentioned. Surely it would help significantly. The cases will drop for a few days and shoot up on the 27th. People will go home and pretend to be fine.
@Gareth Murran: of you go into the Contact Tracing tab you can see the number of alerts they’ve sent out. 11k alerts from 6k cases.
Perhaps the issue is that the people selfishly spreading the virus are the same ones who won’t install the app. A human problem, not a system or technology one.
@Robert Conneely: I use it but I dont go anywhere, I have only had contact with my own household for months and have all my shopping delivered but I do know someone who was traced through the App
This is just my opinion But? I wonder if we didn’t have the 6 week lockdown to have a so called free Xmas, and people could have still shopped for Xmas would we have such high numbers now.
No mention of a challenge to overworked hospitals and staff will you still be expecting the student nurses to fill the void as yourself and your cohorts sit in your Ivory towers
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