POPULATION GROWTH AND ageing could leave Ireland in need of up to 6,800 new inpatient beds by 2040.

That’s according to a report released today by the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).

It projects that the number of inpatient beds in public acute hospitals will need to increase by at least 40%, or 4,400, by 2040.

Requirements for an additional 650 to 950 day patient beds by 2040 are also projected, a growth of between 25 and 37%.

This means that it’s forecast that between 5,091 to 7,780 additional in-patient and day-patient beds will be required by 2040. 

The ESRI said this reflects continued increases in the population, particularly at older ages, and the pace of ageing.  

Ireland’s population is projected to increase from 5.3 million in 2023 to between 5.9 and 6.3 million by 2040, with the range reflecting differing assumptions on future migration trends.

The number of people aged 65 and over will increase from 1 in 7 of the population in 2023 to 1 in 5 by 2040.

This age group are particularly high users of hospital services and accounted for over 60% of inpatient bed days in 2023.

Meanwhile, the number of people aged over 85 is set to more than double in 2040, rising from around 87,000 in 2023 to 204,000 in 2040.

The research, funded by the Department of Health, projected that Emergency Department attendances are set to grow from 1.6 million in 2023, to between 2 and 2.1 million by 2040 – an increase of between 20 and 27%.

Outpatient Department attendances are projected to grow from 4.6 million in 2023, to between 5.5 and 5.9 million by 2040, growth of between 21 and 28%.

Inpatient bed days meanwhile are projected to increase from 3.9 million in 2023, to between 5.1 and 6 million in 2040, an increase of between 32 and 55%.

The ESRI said that even at the lower end of the projections, the report highlights the need for “substantial additional capacity to meet increases in demand for hospital services by 2040”.

It added that the analysis shows how different policy choices, such as reducing inpatient length of stay and waiting list management, can alter the projections.

Dr Aoife Brick, Senior Research Officer at the ESRI and lead author of the report, said it offers policymakers “evidence on the scale of service expansion needed to meet future demand”.

Health Minister Jennifer Carroll MacNeill, TD, remarked that the ESRI evidence base is “crucial for future planning”.

“Ensuring we have the facilities to provide the best care to patients. Increasing bed numbers and the necessary resources and workforce requires careful long-term planning,” she added.

Carroll MacNeill said that the Department is “already making significant strides” and opened 1,218 new acute inpatient beds between 2020 and 2024.

She also noted that the ESRI report considers health policies that reduce potential demand.

“Investing in improved population health, increased productivity, and reducing avoidable hospitalisations will help us make the best use of bed capacity in the future,” said MacNeill.

She said that Ireland is “still dealing with the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic” and that the “disruption it caused to health services will likely be felt for a long time”.  

The report published today is the first of a series of Capacity Review reports on Ireland’s health service.

Today’s report on acute hospitals will be followed by two further reports, on general practice services and older persons care, with regional analysis being developed for later this year.

Sinn Féin’s health spokesperson David Cullinane said “clearly there’s a minimum of 3,000 beds needed in the system over the next few years”.

He added: “The simple reality is that the number of beds which have been opened and built over the last number of years is nowhere near what needs to be done.

“Government have failed to get ahead of the problem over the last five years.  

“We will fall further behind if government don’t provide the funding and listen to the ESRI and others who are pointing out that more capacity and beds are needed.”