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THE STARK FIGURES released by the Central Statistics Office yesterday have sent commentators on the economy into a tizzy.
To recap, the Irish economy is still officially the worst-performing one of all the 27 EU states. Our Gross Domestic Product (GDP) fell by 1.9 per cent in the months from July to September this year. Gross National Product (GNP), a more accurate barometer of economic performance, fell by 2.2 per cent in that time. This contraction in the economy is the worst since early 2009 and reverses the growth trend of Q1 and Q2 of this year.
So where does this leave us “going forward”? The Irish Times carries a front page story that puts together these figures, and the “exceptional circumstances” as described by Herman van Rompuy of the European Council which prompted him to release the draft EU fiscal deal yesterday, and comes up with the headline, “Fears of new recession as economy suffers sharp decline”.
Certainly, the latter document does not make for comfortable reading – it says that countries with a debt-to-GDP ratio of over 60 per cent would have to agree to reduce their debt by 5 per cent per year. As Ireland currently falls into that category (our ratio is around 90 per cent), that would mean coming up with billions more in taxes and cuts from each Budget for the best part of the next decade. Sinn Féin finance spokesperson Pearse Doherty was quickest off the blocks last night to criticise the clause and told TheJournal.ie that it is “unworkable”.
The London Independent’s Economics Editor Ben Chu is also sounding a note of caution over the “poster child of the eurozone’s austerity drive” because of the figures. Business Week also had a pop at Ireland’s ‘Poster Boy’ image, saying the figures had “tainted” it.
So it’s rather heartening to consider the Wall Street Journal’s take on the situation. Eamon Quinn has written that the figures “should certainly not be read as a sign that Ireland – long praised (or patronised) as best in class of the eurozone’s troubled bailout-out economies – is sliding back into its deep three-year recession”.
Instead, Quinn focuses on the fact that these quarterly figures can be “remarkably volatile” and claims that it is austerity that is stopping the Irish economy from growing. In fact, he says, the Department of Finance is probably right in predicting a 1.3 per cent growth in Irish GDP next year.
So who is right? Investors.com – the digital portal of the Investor’s Business Daily – posted a brief comment yesterday:
With Europe falling into a recession and the global economy slowing, foreign demand may not offset government austerity measures and weak domestic demand.
The question, ultimately, is whether the economic downturn of Q3 is here to stay. This is a visualisation of what Q3 looked like. Let’s hope the guy from the Wall Street Journal and his caution on calling a full-blown ‘new’ recession is right.
(via CSO)
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Two cheeks of the same ar%%hole. All those years pretending to be someone else.
It’s like being 12th on a panel of 12 for a public sector job…if absolutely nobody else wants this job your our man so congratulations!
@Dan The Man: Still get paid the same!
A rigged voting system, people do not understand the process. This is how the crooks keep creeping back in.
@Basildon Joe: an open and democratic voting system, that only an absolute moron would fail to understand.
@Johnny Wilson: I don’t think you understand the implications here.
@Basildon Joe: the system has been explained ad nauseum in the media all week
@Basildon Joe: Please explain these “Implications” to me. I am fascinated.
@Dave G Doe: replying to yourself using another account ,creep ⚠️
@Johnny Wilson: it’s the best democratic and open system. But if your elected on the twelfth count then you’re scraped by.
@Basildon Joe: you and your various other IDs use misinformation to deliver sow doubt about our democratic system. Harming one of the pillars of civic society is pretty traitorous IMO.
@Name: Agreed. His manipulation of these comments sections (as Basildon Joe and Dave G Doe in this thread) is an affront to free speech, and the Journal ought to do something about it, but won’t.
@Basildon Joe: how braind dead are you?
So ff fg again why don’t they just rename and become one party instead at this stage
@John Reynolds: It’s the same reason corporations collect (buy up) brands.
Proctor and Gamble own both Tide and Ariel.
They aim to get your custom no matter what you buy.
For the elucidation of Professors Gail McElroy and Michael Gallagher a candidate who eventually meets the quota still scapes through, no matter how valid their electon.
These are clearly two different things.
@ItWasLikeThatWhenIGotHere: If there are 4 seats up for grabs in a constituency then why not the top 4 in the vote get elected. It would save so much time on 15th and 16th counts. The way it is now plays into the bigger parties hands. Why do we need to reach a quota? It’s not real democracy.
So in essence, I have more than one vote.
@AnthonyK: no you don’t. Your vote will only be used once. Maybe it’ll be for your 1st preference maybe it’ll be your 8th who knows.
If you get in on first or twentieth count, makes no difference. You in. That PR system. Better than first past the post single seat constituencies. Remember Thatcher got huge majority with 33% of the votes..
have your say