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President Donald Trump campaigning in Florida this week. Alamy
Explainer
What you need to know about the US midterm elections taking place next week
More than 100 million people likely will cast ballots in this year’s midterm voting.
SO, THE US midterm elections are on Tuesday, 3 November, and could have a major impact on the remaining years of Donald Trump’s presidency.
Are you coming to them fresh and feeling a bit out of the loop?
Here are the basics you need to know.
What is a midterm?
In the United States, ‘midterms’ are the elections that take place at the halfway point of the four-year presidential term.
The midterm elections happen across all 50 US states and are to fill offices other than the presidency.
This year’s midterms will include the election of governors in 36 states along with the congressional elections, which take place every two years (thus, when they happen in the middle of a presidential term, they are called ‘midterms’).
Congress – and therefore the congressional elections – is made up of two parts: the Senate and the House of Representatives. These two bodies create and pass federal laws, which apply across all 50 US states.
The outcome of these elections will decide which party – the Republicans or the Democrats – controls Congress and thus will have an impact on what Trump is able to achieve in his last two years in office.
The results are also seen as a bellwether for how happy people are with the president’s performance to date.
Early voting is well underway – over 40 million Americans have already cast their ballots.
What is at stake?
Since the November 2024 elections, Republicans have controlled both the House and the Senate, meaning that Trump has been able to govern largely at ease.
If Democrats take control of both chambers, or even just one, it will significantly lessen his power.
As things currently stand, Democrats are leading in national polls.
Meanwhile, approval of Trump’s performance is at an all-time low of 31%.
How many seats are up for grabs?
The Senate is made up of two senators per state, with each serving a six-year term. In this year’s election, 35 of these seats are up for grabs.
Meanwhile, all 435 seats in the House are up for election this year – with each person serving a two-year term.
What are the key issues?
Similar to Ireland, soaring prices for gas, medicine and other cost-of-living essentials are top of voters’ lists of concerns as they go to the polls.
Some 84 per cent of voters who have cast their ballots early listed the economy as their biggest concern this election cycle.
Fuel costs have skyrocketed around the world since the United States and Israel launched their war on Iran in February.
US gas prices rose 9.1 per cent in September alone, according to official figures.
This is a problem for Trump and the Republicans given that he made reducing costs a key pledge in his 2024 campaign.
State officials are bracing for intervention from the US President in next week’s elections, fearing federal authorities could disrupt voting, challenge ballot counts or try to block unfavourable results.
Which are the races to watch?
This time around in the Senate, there are eight key battleground states: North Carolina, Texas, Ohio, Maine, Alaska, Iowa, Kansas and Michigan.
In Texas, Democrat James Talarico, a Christian progressive, faces Trump-backed state Attorney General Ken Paxton, whose controversies (which include allegedly robbing a $1,000 pen) have helped turn a longtime Republican stronghold into a closely watched contest. Paxton retains a loyal conservative following and enormous outside financial support.
No Democrat has won a US Senate race in Texas since Lloyd Bentsen in 1988.
Ohio is among one of the country’s most expensive races with former Democratic senator Sherrod Brown seeking a comeback against Republican Jon Husted, who was appointed to replace JD Vance when he became vice president.
In Michigan, Republican and former congressman Mike Rogers is running against progressive Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, to fill the seat of retiring Democratic Senator Gary Peters.
El-Sayed has made a splash on social media in this election both for his progressive positions and his pushback against Islamophobia (His supporters affectionately refer to him as ‘Mean Mamdani’, a nod to how his politics are similar to that of New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani, but his style is sharper and less polite).
He stunned commentators by beating the Democrats’ establishment candidate to secure the party’s nomination back in August.
When will we know the results?
Allowing for recounts and court challenges, it could take weeks before we know the full results of Tuesday’s elections.
That said, results will begin to emerge after the first polls close at 6 pm US Eastern time (10 pm Irish time), which will give us a good idea of whether it has been a good or a bad day for Trump.
With reporting from AFP.
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