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Kneecap is nominated for six Baftas, including outstanding British film. Alamy Stock Photo

What are the chances of Kneecap and other Irish hopefuls winning a Bafta on Sunday?

Industry insiders say Kneecap won’t sweep the board – but it’s unlikely to leave empty handed.

WHEN YOU CALL to mind what kind of project the British Academy Film Awards might reward for ‘outstanding British film’, you would be forgiven for not immediately thinking of Kneecap. 

But that’s just one of six awards that the movie could pick up at the Baftas on Sunday, along with outstanding debut by a British writer, director or producer, film not in the English language, original screenplay, casting and editing. 

The Belfast rap trio of the same name - Mo Chara, Móglaí Bap and tricolour balaclava-wearing DJ Próvaí – whose semi-fictionalised origin story the film tells, have said they think “Ireland taking British awards is fucking hilarious”.

There are other Irish contenders in the field too, including Saoirse Ronan for ‘best leading actress’ for her performance in The Outrun.

Speaking to The Journal about the film’s chances on Sunday night, arts and culture writer Aoife Barry said the film – which has already won several awards – brings a new and different representation of Northern Ireland to the screen.

“The ‘Good Friday babies’ generation and the younger generation of Northern Irish young people haven’t had their story told in the way that Kneecap tell it,” she said.

“It’s almost tongue-in-cheek in some ways and very messy, but very clear on their point of view. They’re young, they speak to young people. They don’t talk down to young people… and people do love disruptors in film, there’s not that many disruptors that do things completely their own way, and they are very much seen as that.”

‘Won’t leave empty handed’

So what are Kneecap’s chances at the Baftas? 

“I think the thing to remember about the Baftas is that it’s their chance to reward and award British talent that’s been ignored on the wider awards circuit, which is American-based with a lot of competition,” Barry said.

“Don’t be surprised if you see really big Hollywood films not getting an award and a British film getting it instead. It’s a chance to recognise the huge talent in in the UK.”

Gráinne Humphreys, the executive director of the Dublin International Film Festival, told The Journal that she doesn’t see Kneecap “sweeping the board” in what is a very competitive year, but she is hopeful that the film won’t leave empty handed. 

“The film has done really well. It went to Sundance, it’s had this amazing role. There’s an energy around it,” she said.

I also think that the lads themselves are actually interesting enough that I’m sure people would want to put them on stage, which is actually a thing that I think people vote for. They go: ‘Well, I could vote for anyone, but I’d love to see that these guys would do with an acceptance speech’.

The film’s success to date has been undeniable. It was the first Irish-language film to be screened at Sundance Film Festival, where it premiered, and it won the Audience Award at the event.

It also dominated at the British Independent Film Awards, taking home seven awards, including Best British Independent Film and Best Debut Screenwriter for its writer and director Rich Peppiatt. 

Just last night, the film took home four Irish Film and Television Academy (Ifta) awards, including for Costume Design, Editing, Casting and Best Director for Peppiatt.

In the Outstanding British Film category, Kneecap is up against films such as Oscar-tipped Conclave, World War II drama Blitz and Bird, a coming-of-age story starring Barry Keoghan. 

“I don’t know if I was to look at that list, whether or not it would take it, although I know that that, again, would be a very smart headline,” Humphreys said.

“One could argue that it would be very surprising for Conclave not to win it, in the sense that it is the British film at the Oscars in so many ways.

“If it’s not Conclave, which has very definitely won so many awards and got so much energy behind it, it could be Hard Truths, which is the Mike Leigh film that was kind of locked out and ignored, but it seems to be very, very well respected amongst the critical fraternity and the industry.”

‘Tough competition’

Barry also believes it’s unlikely for Kneecap to see success in the Outstanding British Film category given the “very tough competition” from Hard Truths and Gladiator II, starring Ireland’s Paul Mescal.

Kneecap possibly has a better chance in the categories for film not in the English language, and outstanding debut by a British writer, director or producer. 

“It feels like those are the areas that will highlight the Irish language piece, and the radical new talent piece,” said Humphreys.

Barry also believes a win in the debut director category is likely.

I think it might be seen as somewhat of a political with a small ‘p’ decision if they win this. It does say something positive if they win in that particular category.”

Kneecap stands “head and shoulders above” the other films in the same category in terms of awareness, and would be the popular choice amongst audiences, she added. 

Barry feels the film is also likely to miss out on an award for best screenplay due to the other films in the category, such as Anora and The Brutalist, both of which are Oscar-nominated.

A win for casting is also unlikely to go to Kneecap, she said.

However, this award could go to The Apprentice, which tells the story of how Donald Trump started his real estate business in the late 1970s with the helping hand of cutthroat lawyer Roy Cohn. 

The film includes the Dublin-based Tailored Films among its producers, with stars Sebastian Stan and Jeremy Strong nominated for leading actor and supporting actor, respectively.

“It’s a brilliant film. Sebastian Stan is excellent in it and it’s also really on point in terms of the topic,” Barry said. “That could be really up there for casting.”

Belfast-born editor of Conclave

In the editing category, Kneecap is up against Conclave – which is edited by Belfast-born Nick Emerson.

On this one, Barry believes the scales are tipped in Conclave’s favour.

“It’s just a really well made film. It’s a papal thriller. It really keeps you on your toes. Visually, it’s stunning.

It would be a great way of Ireland getting getting an award.

However, Humphreys is not so sure if either of them will take home the award.

“Some people feel like there’s a particular set of criteria that you award Best Editing and I’m kind of fascinated to see which way it would go,” she said.

She said the film that triumphs in this category often emerges as the winner in the best directing and cinematography grouping, as the “key components of the best film”.

“That might mean it might roll towards Conclave,” she said, describing it as “brilliant”.

“As somebody who rails against the length of films, I think editing is vital, and that it’s really important that we actually are able to celebrate it. I’m just delighted to see that kind of recognition.”

Saoirse Ronan

The other Irish hopeful at the Baftas this year is Saoirse Ronan, who picked up a leading actress nod for her performance in The Outrun.

The film is an adaptation of Amy Liptrot’s memoir on addiction and recovery and sees Ronan play Rona, a young woman recovering from alcoholism and trying to maintain sobriety in her childhood home of Orkney. 

Despite Ronan’s powerful performance, the film didn’t pick up any Oscar nominations, and according to Barry, it’s hard to see the Irish actress taking home the award on the night. 

“This is an interesting one, because this is one of the best roles of her career. She’s outstanding in it, and she co-produced the film as well,” she said.

“It’s a really tough category this year. If she did get it, it would be really lovely for her, because it will be rewarding her for this really big role in her career. But I think her chances are fairly low considering the other people that are in there with her, which is disappointing, because it is a big moment for her.”

Someone who might win is Marianne Jean-Baptiste. The English actress is best known for her role in Mike Leigh’s 1996 drama Secrets & Lies, for which she earned an Oscar nomination. It is her performance in another Leigh film – Hard Truths – that has earned her the Bafta nomination this year.

Humphreys said Ronan could take home the award due to the fact that The Outrun might connect more with audiences at the Baftas than it would in the US.

However, she said that a strong performance is not always the thing that earns you the award, with much now relying on where the film premieres and how strong a campaign it runs throughout the year.

“I love Saoirse in The Outrun, I thought she was absolutely fantastic, but I’m also aware that people have very different ideas about what a great performance is,” she said.

“Manys a time I’ve heard people saying, ‘Oh, well, it’s a great performance, but she’s young. She’ll have another chance. Let’s give it to the person who’s not going to get it’. And I feel like that’s probably an attitude that’s coming in more and more, and unfortunately, somebody as brilliant as Saoirse possibly gets caught with that.”

The Bafta Film Awards will be broadcast on BBC One from 7pm on Sunday. 

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