IN A FEW short hours, all eyes will be on Finance Minister Jack Chambers as he delivers his first (and possibly only) budget in the Dáil.

Today will be the government’s final Budget before an election legally has to take place and like previous years it looks set to be jammed with once-off cost-of-living measures and tax cuts.

The Irish Fiscal Advisory Council has urged caution, warning that the healthy state of the Irish economy means that too much government spending, particularly untargeted spending, risks overheating the economy and further driving up prices. 

What we know about how the Budget is shaping up so far, however, gives the impression that the government has not fully heeded this warning. 

Much of what is included in Budget 2025 has already been made public, with a chunky €2bn cost-of-living package expected and an unprecedented set of two double-child benefit payments to be made before Christmas.

Like other years, though, the Finance Minister might have a surprise or two up his sleeve yet. 

On Friday, we learned that the government has substantially larger surpluses for this year and next: €25bn this year and €12bn next year to be exact, thanks in part to higher than expected corporation tax receipts and the windfall Apple tax.

The government has repeatedly said that the Apple tax money cannot be used for day-to-day spending and will only be used for once-off infrastructure measures like housing and water and energy infrastructure.

Taoiseach Simon Harris has said that he is hopeful that the government will be able to outline how the Apple money will be spent today as part of Budget Day. 

Here’s how the day will shape up: 

Finance Minister Jack Chambers will deliver his inaugural Budget speech at 1pm in the Dáil, with Minister for Public Expenditure and Reform Paschal Donohoe set to outline public spending immediately afterwards at approximately 1.45pm.

The Dáil schedule is then cleared until 8pm to allow opposition TDs to respond to this year’s Budget. 

Voting on the Budget will then begin at 8.30pm and is scheduled to last until midnight. 

As is the case in most years, some protests are expected outside Leinster House, but unlike previous years, barriers will be installed from early morning on a number of surrounding streets. 

Nearby Buswells Hotel will also be a hive of activity throughout the day, with press conferences and interviews the norm in the venue on previous Budget Days.

Election fever

The three coalition leaders met last night for one final round of wrangling and bargaining before today’s announcement, which already looks set to be a “one for everyone in the audience” type of affair.

This Budget is widely viewed as the government’s final pitch to voters ahead of going to the polls.

Rumours and speculation about a possible general election date have been rife in recent months, particularly given the fact that the Budget was brought forward by a week. 

Taoiseach Simon Harris, however, has swatted off the suggestion that the Budget was brought forward to facilitate an October or November election, arguing instead that the date change was due to the fact that Ireland must make its fiscal and budgetary submission to the European Commission on 15 October.

Harris has been sticking with his line that the government is going to run its “full term”, telling reporters while out canvassing on Sunday afternoon that the coalition is “entirely occupied on the issue of the Budget”.

Harris said it will take a “good few weeks” to get both the Finance Bill and Social Welfare bill through the Houses of the Oireachtas – both of which effectively legislate for what’s in the Budget.

That means that an election is unlikely to be called before the Budget is fully signed off and set in stone, which is likely to be in early November. 

“Obviously, the exact speed and rhythm that that takes is always a matter for the Oireachtas and the sponsoring minister of the legislation, Minister Chambers and Minister Donohoe,” Harris said. 

We will be bringing you all the latest on Budget 2025 throughout the day here on The Journal.