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The Department is also forecasting a surplus of close to €12 billion for 2025. Alamy Stock Photo

Department of Finance’s ‘White Paper’ ahead of Budget confirms €25 billion surplus

The Irish Fiscal Advisory Council yesterday warned it ‘would be dangerous’ to ‘pump’ corporate tax receipts into the economy.

THE DEPARTMENT OF Finance has released its ‘White Paper’ ahead of the upcoming Budget, which confirms the Government will have a surplus of €25 billion for this year.

The ‘White Paper’ is published every year ahead of the budget and provides estimates of Ireland’s receipts and expenditure for the coming year. 

The figures presented for 2024 are projections based on current information and are subject to revision when end-year figures become available.

The Department also notes that all figures are on a “technical pre-Budget basis and do not include any new policy measures to be announced as part of the 2025 Estimates and Budgetary processes”.

As well as a forecasted surplus of €25 billion for this current year, the Department is also forecasting a surplus of close to €12 billion for 2025.

However, this year’s figure includes all of the €14 billion windfall fund from Apple’s unpaid tax.

The European Court of Justice recently ruled that Apple must pay €13 billion to Ireland in unpaid taxes, something the Irish government had argued against. 

While the 2024 figure includes all of the Apple tax for accounting purposes, only €8 billion of the Apple escrow fund will be injected into the exchequer this year, while the remaining €6 billion will be accrued next year.

And though the Apple tax makes up a great portion of the surplus, a record high of €30 billion in corporation taxes to be received by the State this year – €5.5 billion more than expected.

Yesterday, the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council warned that it “would be dangerous” to “pump” corporate tax receipts into the economy.

The Council is the State’s budgetary watchdog and was established to offer an “honest and independent view of how the Government manages its budget”. 

It noted that a massive surplus was to be expected due to a spike in corporation tax due to the Apple tax ruling.

However, the Council cautioned that these “receipts would be once-off in nature” and that the surplus will be “significantly smaller in 2025”.

“A large deficit would be likely if not for these and other exceptional corporation tax receipts being collected from a handful of foreign multinationals,” said the Council.

“Pumping these receipts into a strong economy would be dangerous,” it added.

The Council also called for improved transparency in the White Paper itself.

“We’ve long argued that it should show gross rather than net spending,” said the Council, “which is hugely unhelpful.”

It said that these “general government figures would give a wider picture”.

Last week, Finance Minister Jack Chambers acknowledged that Ireland’s “fiscal position remains heavily exposed to volatile ‘windfall’ corporate tax revenues paid by just a small number of highly profitable firms”.

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    Mute Stephen Campbell
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    Sep 28th 2024, 8:42 AM

    How about reverting some of the austerity measures introduced because of the recession.. Remove the odd thing? VRT on cars maybe? property tax on your home? insurance levies? etc.

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    Mute thomas molloy
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    Sep 28th 2024, 9:20 AM

    @Stephen Campbell: Tax on work needs to be reduced to eliminate the logic temptation to choose staying on welfare numbers. We are the welfare magnet of Europe but what happens when budget deficits happen. ?

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    Mute Seán O'Sullivan
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    Sep 28th 2024, 10:27 AM

    @Stephen Campbell: that would be day to day spending so no

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    Mute sean weir
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    Sep 28th 2024, 11:19 AM

    @Stephen Campbell: USC

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    Mute BillyBones
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    Sep 28th 2024, 11:25 AM

    @thomas molloy: We are at full employment

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    Mute Nigel Hayden
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    Sep 28th 2024, 8:31 AM

    Mmmmn what could they waste 25b on ?

    183
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    Mute Richard Starling
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    Sep 28th 2024, 8:36 AM

    @Nigel Hayden: bike sheds, bus shelters and BAM.

    179
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    Mute Pat Hazzard
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    Sep 28th 2024, 10:18 AM

    @Nigel Hayden: This Govt won’t, but can you examine what the Shinners or hard left would do, they’d be giving freebies to all the idle parasites who refuse to work.

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    Mute Alan Kennedy
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    Sep 28th 2024, 10:24 AM

    @Pat Hazzard: What sort of freebies? Asking for a friend

    37
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    Mute North Phone Bowe
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    Sep 28th 2024, 10:45 AM

    @Pat Hazzard: delusional. The one policy duel party governance of last 15/20 years alone shows the falsehoods in your statement. But you point to opposition party who have yet to be tried and tested as somehow to be denied that chance in favour of failure and failure governance.

    52
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    Mute another one? what's going on is the semi state sec
    Favourite another one? what's going on is the semi state sec
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    Sep 28th 2024, 11:10 AM

    @Pat Hazzard: Sure that’s happening with FF/FG for years and years now. Always buying votes coming up to elections too.

    48
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    Mute sean weir
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    Sep 28th 2024, 11:24 AM

    @Pat Hazzard: that’s it pat you talk up the worse govt we have had since the foundation of the state ,2 complete spoilers leading up to the edge of the cliff,and now you have Leo trotting out to say we need to stop immigration but he’s not racist because he’s from a Indian background and if that misfires sure Simon will step up and say ” I totally disagree with that”
    Election is just round the corner folks

    33
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    Mute BillyBones
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    Sep 28th 2024, 11:26 AM

    @Pat Hazzard: spouting nonsense – We are at full employment by European standards

    22
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    Mute Pat Hazzard
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    Sep 28th 2024, 11:50 AM

    @BillyBones: yes, we are, yet SF want to increase the dole, when it should be cut

    15
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    Mute Pat Hazzard
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    Sep 28th 2024, 11:53 AM

    @sean weir: to anyone not blinded by massive shoulder chips the current Govt is without question one of the best in our history: repeated and large budget surpluses, unprecedented levels of housing being delivered, full employment, reducing waiting lists, massive advances in women’s health services, highest lift expectancy in Europe etc etc

    9
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    Mute Nigel Hayden
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    Sep 28th 2024, 12:27 PM

    @Pat Hazzard: isn’t that what your beloved fg/ff are doing now , wasting money left right and centre, open borders etc

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    Mute North Phone Bowe
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    Sep 28th 2024, 12:52 PM

    @Pat Hazzard: in precedented level of housing. Yet 2006 /7 figures clearly show that same level of construction workers delivered 3- 4 times as many homes. Facts ain’t t your strong point is it!!!

    20
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    Mute James Delaney
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    Sep 28th 2024, 1:48 PM

    @Pat Hazzard: are you sure your living in Ireland ?

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    Mute Michael o connor
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    Sep 28th 2024, 2:51 PM

    @Pat Hazzard: 2/10 for trolling. You need to be more subtle.

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    Mute Spartacus Ireland
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    Sep 28th 2024, 9:08 AM

    Alternative headline: “Irish taxpayers being overtaxed by approx 25 billion”

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    Mute Toyo Ke
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    Sep 28th 2024, 9:37 AM

    @Spartacus Ireland: If you read the article it says its from corporation tax from a handful of companies. It also says without this corporation tax, we’d more than likely record a deficit. What that says to me is if these handful of companies left Ireland (there was no incentive to stay), then we’d have to be taxed more to try balance the books. We also know that public money (our tax money) is like confetti when being spent by the different departments.

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    Mute Spartacus Ireland
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    Sep 28th 2024, 10:41 AM

    @Toyo Ke: Oh and I believe everything they say of course…thanks

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    Mute Atlas Collapsed
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    Sep 28th 2024, 8:42 AM

    The only thing FFG are good at is taxation.

    They excel at that but fail miserably in everything else…

    104
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    Mute honey badger
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    Sep 28th 2024, 8:36 AM

    25 billion! Or as I call it, 2 years of keeping the lights on in the North…

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    Mute honey badger
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    Sep 28th 2024, 9:27 AM

    @William Slevin: Life’s too short to deal with lunatics like you. Muted. :)

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    Mute North Phone Bowe
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    Sep 28th 2024, 9:46 AM

    @honey badger: yeah according to the Fitzgerald guy who also predicted that we would ride out the financial crash which ended up costing over € 60Billion.

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    Mute honey badger
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    Sep 28th 2024, 9:55 AM

    @North Phone Bowe: Actually, I was a little short. Just checked on the UK government’s website, and they’re sending £15 billion this year (€17.96 billion).

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    Mute North Phone Bowe
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    Sep 28th 2024, 10:04 AM

    @honey badger: did they also tell you what their exchequer removes each year. Standard accounting of credit and deficit which give the true figure. But your British friends refuse to declare.

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    Mute Trump23
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    Sep 28th 2024, 10:10 AM

    @honey badger: Agreed totally now that would be the biggest waste of money

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    Mute sean weir
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    Sep 28th 2024, 11:28 AM

    @honey badger: thanks for you help leaving us to the Brits for the last 100 odd years , you are about as irish as their king Charles

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    Mute honey badger
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    Sep 28th 2024, 11:51 AM

    @sean weir: Sean, when you’re coming with a begging bowl, it’s best not to insult those whose largesse you’ll depend upon.

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    Mute North Phone Bowe
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    Sep 28th 2024, 1:07 PM

    @honey badger: begging bowl???? I plain and simply don’t have words to reply to that that wouldn’t trigger every algorithm on abusive language. I can only thank the stars that your colonial superiority delusion isn’t shared by majority of Ireland.

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    Mute Michael o connor
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    Sep 28th 2024, 2:53 PM

    @William Slevin: they’ll be looking for the Black and tan commemoration soon!

    3
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    Mute David Healion
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    Sep 28th 2024, 8:40 AM

    The advice is solid, the surplus should be pumped into Infrastructure for Health Housing and Green Energy.

    58
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    Mute David Cotter
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    Sep 28th 2024, 8:42 AM

    @David Healion: do you honestly think that will happen..

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    Mute Stephen Campbell
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    Sep 28th 2024, 8:53 AM

    @David Healion: Or at least managed a bit better

    28
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    Mute David Cotter
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    Sep 28th 2024, 8:41 AM

    This can’t last…this policy is a big factor in the wealth disparity the world is now enduring.
    With this latest ruling we’re now being watched by everyone and it’s embarrassing really
    We’re letting these companies take the mick for a few crumbs (classic FFG TD/county councillor gombeenism)

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    Mute Eoin Jackson
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    Sep 29th 2024, 2:13 AM

    @David Cotter: wow. That’s a whole lot of nonsense in one short paragraph. Congrats I guess, impressive achievement.

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    Mute Finian McG
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    Sep 28th 2024, 8:32 AM

    €25 billion converts to 71millionBS… (bike sheds)

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    Mute Watchful Axe
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    Sep 28th 2024, 10:22 AM

    @Finian McG: Thousand, not million. There’s no magic money tree. lol

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    Mute Tom Newell
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    Sep 28th 2024, 9:16 AM

    that could get ya at least 3 hospitals, 2 bike sheds and maybe enough left over after for a snack box meal for everyone of the contracters you got the brown envelopes off to approve the builds

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    Mute mark sheehan
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    Sep 28th 2024, 9:25 AM

    @Tom Newell: took you all morning to think of that.

    12
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    Mute Tom Newell
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    Sep 28th 2024, 2:04 PM

    @mark sheehan: As much time as it took the OPW to spend taxpayers money on sheds costing 6 figurres……so not too long

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    Mute James Leahy
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    Sep 28th 2024, 9:15 AM

    Bam will be extending the opening time for the children’s hospital.

    42
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    Mute Toca Stories
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    Sep 28th 2024, 9:31 AM

    Why not pay down the deficit. Would wipe 20% off it and the interest saved could be used for capital projects

    34
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    Mute Paul O'Mahoney
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    Sep 28th 2024, 9:55 AM

    @Toca Stories: You mean National Debt, the interest saved wouldn’t be very much €1bn maybe a bit more, whatever is done it needs to something that creates value, what that is is anyone’s guess.

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    Mute North Phone Bowe
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    Sep 28th 2024, 9:58 AM

    @Toca Stories: or invest in homes and infrastructure which would end the over reliance on profiteers. Thereby saving as much each years in habs, emergency accom, direct provision etc.

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    Mute sakk sa
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    Sep 28th 2024, 10:06 AM

    How much asigned to accommodate asylum, refugee, ukranian, PWO , RTE, state jets, TD salaries, government useless consultations firms.
    And most importantly HSE salaries for imported Useless consultants ,
    You must focus at education, health , housing your own citizens

    43
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    Mute Gerry Kelly
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    Sep 28th 2024, 9:23 AM

    We trade & sell the world things it wants to buy. Perhaps we should take a pause from all the negativity & cynicism, and give ourselves a wee pat on the back.
    Socialism impoverishes, free trade makes most people better off.

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    Mute Nick Vasilakis
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    Sep 28th 2024, 9:36 AM

    @Gerry Kelly: Free trade USED to make everyone better off. With the rise of megacorporations, it is no longer true. The world’s wealth is now in the hands of a tiny part of the world’s population.

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    Mute Dominic Leleu
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    Sep 28th 2024, 8:46 AM

    dont touch that you will waste our money you showers

    38
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    Mute The next small thing
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    Sep 28th 2024, 10:47 AM

    The best thing to do with this surplus is to save it for the next downturn and then invest it in infrastructure projects rather than the peaks and troughs we’re used to (and hopefully the public sector will learn how to budget and cost projects correctly). The only fear I woudl have with that approach would be the EU somehow taking it to pay for the downturn in Germany and other areas of the EU. Pumping this money into the economy now will just lead to even more inflation.

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    Mute John Dennehy
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    Sep 28th 2024, 10:29 AM

    FF/FG, the Gucci government; are great at overspending taxpayers’ hard-earned money to line their cronies’ pockets, complete gangster, they will blow through 25B in no time, I might invest in a brown envelope company they are going to be busy.

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    Mute Tee
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    Sep 28th 2024, 10:51 AM

    Irish homeless families, hospitals, schools, small Irish businesses and of course border control!

    21
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    Mute John Lee
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    Sep 28th 2024, 10:19 AM

    Should spend the surplus on one off infrastructure projects and getting rid of our national debt. Light rail or metro in cork/limerick/Galway will pay off over time! Doesnt make sense ship this excess off to our sovereign wealth fund..

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    Mute John Purcell
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    Sep 28th 2024, 12:19 PM

    Clearly it should be spent on once off infrastructure projects such as increased public transport, housing, water and wind farms to try and become self sustaining energy wise.This would allow ireland to remain a competitive destination going forward for all FDI which effectively is leading to bumper corporation tax and income tax receipts.

    But u can see from the government budget and the alternative budgets from other parties, the electorate doesn’t care about this and won’t vote for long term planning. Every party has proposed a give away budget as they know ppl can be bought.

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    Mute The next small thing
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    Sep 28th 2024, 1:09 PM

    @John Purcell: That’s it in a nutshell, we are the problem, not the political parties. I would set about planning the infrastructure projects now (with realistic costs) and start them when there is a downturn, thus creating jobs when people are losing them in other areas.

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    Mute John Purcell
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    Sep 28th 2024, 2:10 PM

    @The next small thing: the issue is what that talk u wouldn’t get elected.

    What ever anyone says all the want is more money in their pocket.

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    Mute Concerned Driver
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    Sep 28th 2024, 2:30 PM

    And still not a metre of metro built.

    4
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    Mute Bliger
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    Sep 28th 2024, 11:44 AM

    Could be spend on national preschools/ crèches.

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    Mute Mary.E.
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    Sep 28th 2024, 12:12 PM

    @Bliger:
    Not forgetting all the children waiting on their scoliosis operations.for many yrs.
    No excuse not to get them all sorted A.S.A.P.

    17
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    Mute The next small thing
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    Sep 28th 2024, 1:07 PM

    @Mary.E.: The government gave the HSE ringfenced money to pay for the scoliosis operations and HSE management decided they would spend it elsewhere. When there are no consequences to senior public sector officials wasting our money don’t expect anything to improve, they will always feather their nests first.

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    Mute John Purcell
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    Sep 28th 2024, 3:57 PM

    @The next small thing: in a nutshell. TD’s don’t run there departments. They are run by senior civil servants

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    Mute Michael Heelan
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    Sep 28th 2024, 11:53 PM

    The pension pot that was raided during the crash to bail out the banks needs to be replaced so that elderly people can climb a proper pension on retirement

    2
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