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THE GOVERNMENT’S BUDGET advisory group says Ireland is on course to bring its budget deficit significantly below the European Union’s limits by 2015 – but has nonetheless recommended that the government stick to its plans for the next two Budgets.
The Irish Fiscal Advisory Council says better-than-expected economic data for the end of 2012 means Ireland’s budget deficit could fall to 2.0 per cent of GDP in 2015 – well below the 3.0 per cent limit imposed by the EU.
This would give the government some space to relax some of the Budget adjustments planned for the next two Budgets, amounting to a total of €5.1 billion – but the council still recommends that the full adjustments be planned.
This is because of “significant uncertainties” surrounding its projections for the coming two years, which could be threatened by a collapse in domestic demand, which has shown tentative signs of recovery, or a fall in exports if other European economies begin to falter.
The council’s quarterly fiscal assessment, published today, also says there are “expenditure pressures” in the Health and Social Protection parts of the Budget, which “raised concerns about the implementation of planned adjustment measures”.
“However, improved monitoring in Health and a successful implementation of the Croke Park Extension Agreement should help underpin expenditure savings.”
The council believes the final figures for 2012 will show that the deficit came in at “significantly below 8 per cent” of GDP in 2012 – below the projection of 8.2 per cent given on Budget day, and the 8.6 per cent target laid down by Brussels.
“This should have some beneficial carryover effects for future years,” it explains, adding that the promissory note arrangements would cut the 2015 deficit by 0.6 per cent of GDP.
The Fiscal Council was set up in 2011 as part of a reform of government budgeting and spending, and aims to offer expert and independent advice on the government’s budgetary policy.
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I’m totally and completely sh*te sick of these so called predictions which are never right anyway. They’ve been telling us since 2010 that growth will happen the next year and the next year. They may as well be looking at the tea leaves as trying to predict. In the meantime ordinary people and small businesses are on the cross waiting for all this so called positive news to filter down to the real world.
Spain has TOLD the EU it WON’T be bringing its GDP to the European limit for another 3 years as its worried the effect austerity his having on its economy.
Saturday 12.30 Parnell Square, Dublin.
Nationwide assembly against austerity.
Check with your local campaign against household and water taxes for local busses going up to Dublin.
I’m sorry people.
Do you wan to spend your way to oblivion? Is that the fair thing to do for the next generation?
What happens when interest rates rise on this debt you want to accumulate.
We blew a bunch of money and now we need to get our budget in order. Grow up.
Deal with it.
Is it fair on the next generation are in Australia, if and when they come home they saddled with the bankers illegal debts.
correct Michael.
You’re right, their predictions were wrong, we grew MORE in 2012 than they had predicted.
Incorrect Michael.
What’s all this we business.
I’ve always paid my way and I expect others to do the same.
The gambling addicts can sort it out with the loan sharks on their own.
I did not blow any money!
Sorry Jim,
You/We voted the politicians in, then we are all equally to blame.
You can’t have it all your own way.
Democracy is great right?
No michael you dont know what your talking about. Read over the promises the FG and labour made to get into power. The only mistake we made as an electorate was believing those lying basterds.
I and my generation (so many of whom have left these shores) were not even old enough to vote when the docile masses voted in bertie and co. yet we have been targeted time and again by successive regimes.. the first year after i graduated college i had to live on 100euro a week because there was simply no jobs. Every single effort has been made to try and force my generation to just leave and become some other countries problem.
We never voted in either Fianna fail or fine gael, tell me how is it our fault?
Like I said Matthew, democracy is great. Power to the politicians! Tax people more and give more power to politicians.
Cognitive dissonance at its finest?
Democracy me arse!
I was promised certain things in return for my vote along with everyone else.
I was lied to, one of them admitted it.
Me Arse!!
Jim,
Do you think it’s ever going to change? Or have politicians ever been honest?
David : any truth in the rumours that Charlie Flanagan is going to be the new Attorney General ? ;; ha ha ha ha !
http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/courts/woman-settles-professional-negligence-case-against-fine-gael-td-29188025.html
And this guy is a “legislator” ………… wagon wheels off!
They were voted in because they promised change and transparency. Nothing has changed, they are working for Europe, they think more of the banks than they do about the people.
WE???
A bunch of money lol . Reminds me I was flying into Sydney one day , had an American couple sitting next to me , as we came in over Botany Bay one of them turned to the other and said ” hey man look a bunch of water ” oh those crazy yanks .
Easy for a couple of lads on over €200000 a year to say things like this.
Quangos.
So we should keep borrowing more money?
“The Lord does give it with one hand and take it with the next” but the poor continue to suffer on while those that have maintain their lifestyles.
Define who the “poor” are.
I dread what these cuts will do over the next two budgets. Surely education and health care can’t take another hit. Already we’re going to see a decreasing number of people going to nursing and teaching (two areas hit harder than most), the health care system already has demands beyond possible supply, and young teachers will struggle to make a living and have a life (alongside the nurses of the country). I know we’re trying to cut, and ministers wages would be a welcome start for the general public, but I don’t see where this “wiggle room” is actually coming from.
The last young teacher I saw was driving a merc….I think they’ll survive.
One does not represent the majority. When I say young teachers I mean more specifically NQTs who will be on significantly less money that those just three or four years ago (young, yes, but not young teachers as I mean it).
Yes education can take a hit. 3rd level education is not a right, or an entitlement.
Liberal arts degrees should not be getting grant money. The whole system is a joke.
You wanna go to 3rd level school? Pay for it.
In essence Michael, is it your contention 3rd level education should be the preserve of the wealthy? Should we not ensure that 3rd level education is granted on the basis of merit and hard work rather than being fortunate enough to be born on the right side of the tracks?
Ian, could you tell us what model and year the Merc was? Could you also inform us as to whether or not this young teacher was the registered owner of said vehicle?
Hear hear mark
You should re-read what I wrote
Education should not be as expensive as it is. If we didn’t subsidise all of this money to go to educational bureaucrats that squander our money, education would be just as good at a price that people could afford and treat properly.
If you spend someone else’s money, you care less than if you are spending your own.
If you want to reward laziness — fire ahead. Don’t do it with my money, do it with your own
@Michael;
1) I agree with your first sentiment in that 3rd level is not a right or an entitlement. You should get there on the basis of hard work and merit.
2) Why should liberal Arts degrees not get funding?
3) “You wanna go to 3rd level school? Pay for it.” That suggests that if you cannot afford to go to college, you should not get in. By logical extension, it would suggest that college would become the preserve of those who can afford it. I would argue that the State should ensure that those who merit college places should get them. After all, graduates will end up contributing to the State’s tax base by usually earning higher wages and (if the system is fair) pay more tax.
By the logic presented there will be a line of people, generation after generation of the same families entering third level education; after all, if you have to pay for it (suggesting cutting the grants significantly) it will severely limit the number of people who could enter third level education.
So? Don’t assume because you saw them driving a mrec that they’ll be ok. You don’t know peoples circumstances, it may not be their car, it may be on loan, hire purchase or they could have inherited money.
I’ve re-read it. I still don’t agree with you.
That comment was for Michael.
There are scholarships available to gifted individuals for a reason,
Look you can demagogue the issue, or you can deal with logic, reason and facts.
There will be schools that educate at 3rd level that don’t cost the taxpayers anywhere near as much.
Liberal arts and gender studies et al are WASTING our money.
Before anyone attacks you for that I want to ask you to do something… Define “liberal arts”. You seem to think that they are wasting your money, so what are they?
Let me google that for you
The idea here is that I don’t actually think you know what the liberal arts are and just how important to the running of businesses, countries, and schools they are, and the cultural significances of the subjects branched under the title “liberal arts”.
They are not marketable skills, as you correctly stated you learn these things during employment.
These degrees should set out a correct amount of graduates — not contain a bunch of dropouts that we appropriate grant money to. MY money to.
Screw that.
Significantly less yes but their not exactly on the bread line…
Somebody is paying for third level education no matter what. Some people never get the opportunity to go to college. Why is it fair to demand that they co-fund third level education for middle class kids? No. The ones who benefit from a college education should pay for it themselves. I’d consider that a very good investment. Anybody who doesn’t consider it a good investment should not bother with college.
Same rubbish every day let them live on what most have and see how quick the are to say the gov should stick to there plans
These guys know there is an election early to mid 2016,can’t see more cuts and taxes in the budget of October ’15.
there may be an election this year yet ; let’s await the publication of all the “off-shore” tax dodgers !
So we should just keep borrowing money against the troika’s wishes and against the EU’s excessive deficit procedures? Also, the opinion polls show a very different picture, Norman.
The photo makes me want to give them both a knuckle sandwich right in the kisser.
Two more clowns in well paid jobs telling the rest of us to cut back and live in poverty.
Yeah sure who needs the advice of experts in making budgetary decisions….
‘Making budgetry decisions’? Aren’t YFG usually on here excusing noonans decisions after every budget by claiming the decisions are out of his hands thanks to fianna fail and the troika?
Are you admitting that noonan has the choice between hitting the poor again or asking people earning over 100K to put their hands in their pockets?
No, we have full control over what taxes/cuts we enact, as long as they meet our deficit reduction requirements.
So, your saying your party seniors are lying when they say they HAVE to implement the property tax because its part of the memorandum of understanding?
Yes that’s what he’s saying but don’t expect a reply….you know the drill by now. Higgins will be back next week.
I don’t, I can make my own decisions as a grown up David, While you advocate the nanny state.
“No, we have full control over what taxes/cuts we enact, as long as they meet our deficit reduction requirements.”
And that’s why we are cutting the little people, to protect Enda’s pension.
Fiscal advisory council haven’t done their sums. The only reason that the troika is talk about a 7 year extension is because they have worked out their sums do not add up and we STILL have well paid “fiscal advisor’s” who still have to work out no growth means no money.
Exactly what sums haven’t they done?
You’re right they got their 2012 numbers wrong, we actually did better than expected?
David the department of agriculture and the C.S.O. couldn’t get the number of farmers in the country right for months even though it is the most oppressively regulated industry in the country; every field is electronically catalogued as is every farmer and they still couldn’t read the autosum result !
Actually that opens a train of thought ; I wonder if there are bogus farmers who are on the inside who claim Single Farm Payments ; like those FAS guys ! Systemic and endemic and all that !
We have massive oil and gas finds being totally ignored .. Trillions of euro
They have been given away for free already. Wont see a penny of it.
The the recovery of that gas and oil has been contracted out it means Ireland gets a tiny fraction of those ‘trillions’ you speak of.
Begrudge, can you explain that statement please ? Just asking for info, not a loaded question. Thank you.
Joseph; Ireland found gas reserves in our waters only a few years ago. As we, as a country, had no means of accessing this gas we simply gave it away, and effectively bought it back as the country needed it. We didn’t sell to the highest bidder, set up a contract to see a share of profits, nada.
Trillions?? Really? Thousands of billions Euros??
Slight exaggeration, I think.
Independent experts familiar with the natural deposits around our coastline and in the ground if used, would be able to clear our national debt in one day
Can you provide a source for this claim please?
Obviously not. I’d love it to be true but sounds a little like made up the usual horseshit made up “solutions” that the economic experts that frequent these pages like to spout. Please feel fee to prove me wrong though.
Last year there were many articles about Ireland’s natural resources and how we would benefit if we could harness/utilise them. It was said that if we could produce oil, gas, metal ores, etc., that Ireland could possibly be one of the wealthiest Countries in the world. Also it was suggested that we would be able to clear our debts in one day.
Who wrote these pieces? Where did they get their data from? Who did they represent? What was their motivation? Were the articles published & peer reviewed? Are there counter arguments represented?
Without evaluating these factors (and more) then using them as a basis for an argument is at best questionable. Unfortunately it happens a lot these days.
We have millions of leprecauns sitting at the end of rainbows with their pots of gold, and that’s being totally ignored too!
What are those two gombeens smiling at? There is nothing funny about grinding austerity.
Cuts cuts and more cuts. Cuts haven’t worked so far, what makes them think cuts will work now? What the government need to be doing is spending and encouraging spending to stimulate the economy.
The internal devaluation that is usually caused by recession and high unemployment that would lead to an increase in economic growth hasn’t happened as the fall in price levels hasn’t been reflected in decreases in earnings (hourly rates increased by 1.86% CSO).
We have had internal REvaluation as a result, showing that cuts don’t work. As the wages haven’t tumbled (as is supposed to happen with devaluation), then we don’t even have the competitiveness factor, leaving us open to industries bailing from Ireland to find cheaper sources of labour.
The cuts are only leading to further decreases in consumption and now that there is ‘wriggle room’ it should be jumped at to stimulate spending.
The EU have successfully removed the governments ability to introduce their own monetary policy (some would say not a bad thing) but the normal stand-alone methods of devaluing and bringing a country out of a recession are not there anymore now that there is a single currency and fiscal policies are controlled by Brussels.
Take the ‘wriggle room’ and give the kip a bit of a jump start
So spend, spend, spend? Like that worked before….
Jeremy is austerity working?
Well, austerity has to be accompanied by structural reforms. Increasing deficit spending and pushing reforms down the road only leads to moral hazard, loss of competitiveness and higher debt. Structural reforms on the other hand help to regain the confidence of private investors.
yes but in order to carry out structural reforms you need government willing and capable of doing so
are our government willing and capable?
my problem with austerity is that there are so many factors that have to all fall into place at the same time and if one does not align the consequences can be dire.
Yes spend!! Encourage personal and government spending!! Get the economy going, because at the moment austerity has effectively frozen any potential for growth.
Not crazed spending like the FF policies, but structured so as to release funds that are being squirreled away in savings and cutbacks in private industry.
We need an expansionary fiscal policy rather that what we’re doing at the moment.
Greece’s forecasted 17% contraction in GDP is expected to bring the country back to where it was in 2002. Portugals forecasted reversion is 20% which brings them back to a grand and dandy 1995.
So tell me, has austerity worked? We’ve tried it and it has done nothing but ruin IR in industry (both private & public), and has shown that not only is Ireland too expensive, it’s also inefficient in comparison to places like Germany. Flat comparison there lads, the Euro currency lays it bare for all to see. The austerity hasn’t forced a decrease in domestic pricing.
As I already said, cutbacks lead to devaluation normally. That leads to recession & unemployment which brings a decrease in domestic price levels. The net result should be an increase in economic growth, it hasn’t worked this time. The normal balancing of the economy hasn’t happened and we are not now permitted to introduce sovereign policies to try to right it.
Put money back into the economy, not take more out of it!!!
They will tell you the money is not there but it is if they didn’t pay companies that there mates own and get there back handers two things would happen there would be more money in pockets of people that would spend it in this economy and we wouldn’t cost us as much to run this country when we stop using our tax as there personal piggy bank
Please name the idiots who are on this quango committee !!!
It’s fun to see the usual Journal suspects turn up and moan as ever.
The irony is that these are the same people who constantly criticise the government for not having the correct expertise to run the country. But yet when the government sets up a body with this expertise they complain about a waste of money.
Typical Irish moaners, wanting to have their cake and eat it (and probably not pay for it either!). Make you minds up. Which do you want, expert advice or not? Or is that you want expert advice that says what you want to hear?
Ooooh, I got red thumbed. I’m devastated.
Moaning again Jim?
On a side note, I heard a commentator yesterday saying that Ireland won’t get a deal until after the German election. The inference being that the democratic will of the German people will be quashed and civil servants push through things undemocratically.
It wasn’t just a commentator, it was the junior finance minister Brian Hayes. Fine Gael have always been open to the idea of Germany calling the shots.
But even the German people won’t have a say
They’ve been making similar promises ever since they were elected, there’s always just one more thing that needs to happen. Always jam tomorrow.
You can’t get blood from a stone.The young teachers are all driving taxis at the weekend.
Aren’t existing public sector workers well-paid?
This is a quango of five economists (the modern term for witchdoctor), all receiving money – expenses, perks, handshakes – from the public purse (that’s us) to tell the government that they must squeeze us more and more and more.
How much would we save by abolishing these shysters?
And then you could then complain about the government not have expert advice on how to run the country?
It depends on whether your definition of an “expert” is somebody who is very well paid, or somebody with knowledge and expertise in the subject area. What are these fellas experts on again?
Jims right, we can’t abolish these shysters…FG and the merry band of farmers, teachers and publicans are vastly under qualified in economics and fiscal management.
All the cuts and cuts and cuts they earned have been throw down the drain It is all bullshit and leading us to nowhere. Once there is a recovery somewhere they cut it I am too old for this game . They want us to go backwards and they can’t make our age go backwards There is no sense in this lads
In the “about the council” section of the website it states:
“The Council submits its assessment reports to the Minister for Finance and within 10 days releases them publicly. If the Government does not accept the Council’s assessment in relation to its compliance with the budgetary rule, the Minister for Finance must lay a statement before Dáil Éireann outlining the Government’s reasons for not accepting it.”
Why the 10 day buffer between submitting to the Minister for Finance and the general public? Surely, if you have conviction in your findings, you would have no issue with publishing to all at the same time? Also, is it really in their interest to have their findings rejected in public, before the Dial? Genuine questions.
Pure assumption but since the Tabloids will run ragged crowing every suggestion as a definite then I assume the government use the ten day buffer to read it and prepare responses on the more controversial parts if they are their? Rather than being told to comment on every line as they read it?
Just a guess…
have your say