UNFINISHED HOMES ARE being “forward counted” in figures and the market may be distorted as a result, an Oireachtas committee will hear.

An academic has expressed concerns about how housing completion figures are calculated.

Lorcan Sirr, a senior lecturer at TU Dublin’s School of Surveying and Construction Innovation, is among them, and he is to tell the Oireachtas Joint Committee on Housing that the figures are “grossly overcounted”.

In 2016, he told the committee that the number of new houses being completed each year was inflated by 58% over a six-year period.

It was found that many new connections to the ESB grid that were automatically counted as new homes were in reality milking parlours, workshops, garden sheds and vacant houses that were coming back into use.

Since then, the Central Statistics Office (CSO) has “refined” their methodology to be more accurate, but it still pulls in data from ESB connections.

However, Sirr says, connection to the ESB grid does not mean the dwelling is completed, as new buildings are connected to an electricity supply far in advance of completion.

“Concrete shells with no flooring, kitchens, bathrooms or plastered walls are included in the figures for new homes once they have power,” he says.

“Consequently, connection to the ESB grid does not mean the dwelling is legal to occupy, and we are arguably forward-counting the number of new dwellings completed annually, and potentially distorting market information.

“Any fall in completions will be commensurately amplified.”

Instead, Sirr says that the local authority planning system should link Certificates of Compliance on Completion with the CSO’s Residential Property Price Index, and the Residential Tenancies Board’s Rent Index.

Currently, people can opt out of the certificate, which means some data isn’t collected.

Sirr recommends it become mandatory. This will add between €3,000 and €5,000 to the cost of a new home.

The Building Control Management System (BCMS) is an online platform that allows property owners, builders, developers, architects and engineers to submit statutory building notices and applications electronically, such as Commencement Notices, 7 Day Notices and Certificates of Compliance on Completion.

Sirr says the BCMS has lacked a consistent method of data collection, as information for each development is entered by assigned certifiers or builders and verified by each local authority.

“The system within the BCMS which allows for inconsistencies across jurisdictions needs to be reformed in order to ensure the same information is recorded in the same format across all 31 local authorities,” he said.

He adds that his recommendations are not criticisms of the CSO or the operators of the BCMS.

Senior statistician at the CSO Cormac Halpin will tell the committee that one potential reason for discrepancies in housing number is multi-unit developments, particularly apartment blocks, “being recorded as a single unit”.

The CSO believe the ESB new connections data is the “best available source on which to base statistics relating to new dwelling completions”.