IRELAND’S POPULATION COULD grow to between 6 million and 7.59 million by the year 2065, according to projections of immigration and emigration released by the Department of Finance. 

That projection is one of a number included in the Department’s ‘Future Forty’ paper, which looks at potential demographic changes over the next forty years, “given certain assumptions regarding migration, fertility and mortality rates”.

The latest census, in 2022, put the population of the Republic at 5.15 million.

The report notes that an ageing population, a declining fertility rate and immigration are three factors that will have major impacts on Ireland’s demographic make-up over the next four decades.

Ireland’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has fallen from close to 2.6 births per woman 40 years ago, to 1.9 births per woman 20 years ago, to 1.53 births per woman today. 

Ireland’s non-migrant labour force is projected to decline from 2035 onwards, the report says.

The report also notes that if net migration was to fall to zero by 2035, “Ireland’s labour force would contract from that point onwards, while the number of people ageing out of the labour force would continue to grow”. 

If that were to happen, it could have “very negative” economic consequences.

“Immigration has the potential to offset some of these demographic challenges by boosting the working-age population and filling critical skills gaps. In turn, this can contribute to improved economic growth, innovation and productivity.” 

The report sets out three scenarios regarding the impact of immigration on Ireland’s demographics: low, central and high.

In a “low scenario”, one in which net migration falls to around 18,500 per year, Ireland’s population could reach 6m in 2065, with the labour force beginning to contract from 2041 onwards. 

In the “central scenario”, where net migration ranges between 35,000 and 40,000 per year, Ireland’s population would reach 6.77m in 2065, with labour force growth sustained until 2047.

In the “high scenario”, with net migration between 53,000 and 58,000 per year, labour force growth is sustained over the same time period with the population potentially reaching 7.59m by 2065.  

Today’s report is a precursor to a larger body of work being done by the Department that is to consider “how a broad range of economic and fiscal drivers might affect Ireland over the next forty years,” the Department said.

Minister for Finance Paschal Donohoe said today that “changes to the size, and age profile, of our population will have far-reaching impacts on the future of our economic and fiscal well-being”. 

“We must consider how these potential changes will affect our labour market, the delivery of public services and the continued growth of our economy.

“As our population ages, we will require strategic and innovative solutions to sustain economic growth, deliver higher standards of living and facilitate enhanced levels of productivity.”

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