LAST UPDATE | 22 Oct 2025

CATHERINE CONNOLLY APPEARS to be on course to win the presidential election based on new polling published this evening, with just two days to go before the country votes.

A new Business Post/Red C poll published this evening shows Connolly on 44%, well ahead of Fine Gael’s Heather Humphreys on 25%.

Jim Gavin, who suspended his campaign earlier this month, is on 10%.

21% of voters remain undecided, or say they will not vote – this is a reduction from 27% of voters earlier this month.

The figures suggest Connolly has consolidated her commanding lead since the last Red C poll on 11 October, which had Connolly on 36% (an 8-point increase) and Humphreys on 25% (no change).

Separately, last week’s Irish Times/Ipsos B&A poll put Connolly on 38% compared with Humphreys’s 20%, indicating she could secure a first-count victory if that support holds on polling day.

As part of the latest Red C survey, undecided voters were also prompted to pick a candidate – only half did.

When the rest of the still-undecided voters and non-voters are excluded, the adjusted Red C numbers put Connolly at 55%, Humphreys at 34%, and Gavin at 11%.

When Gavin’s votes are redistributed, his second preference votes split almost evenly between Connolly and Humphreys, pushing support for both candidates to 61% and 39% respectively – a significant 22% gap.

Connolly also enjoys more support across all three age categories (18-34, 35-54 and over-55s).

While 69% of Fine Gael supporters plan to vote for Humphreys, a notable 18% will back Connolly and 10% will choose Gavin.

Polling stations open nationwide at 7am on Friday, with counting to begin on Saturday morning.

Harris throws shade

Speaking at the Dublin Chamber’s Annual Dinner in the Convention Centre this evening, Tánaiste Simon Harris said those in public life must “not themselves act as barriers to infrastructure.”

Seemingly referencing Catherine Connolly, Harris said some figures who “engage in serial objections and then go on to bemoan the lack of infrastructure” are guilty of “self-serving hypocrisy”, which he said has become a “major obstacle to the development and growth of all parts of this country.”

His comments came after the Irish Independent reported that Connolly, who has been critical of delays to major projects in Galway, had previously objected to a number of developments in the city — including the ring road, a hospital, and several housing and transport projects.

“I’ve been reading about this only this morning,” Harris said.

“This type of double-speak cuts to the heart of credibility in public life,” he added, stating that real leadership “means taking responsibility for the consequences of the decisions you make.”