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Posters on a Dublin street today Shawn Pogatchnik/AP/Press Association Images

Referendum roundup: 14 days to go

Austerity treaty, stability treaty, or somewhere in between? TheJournal.ie keeps you up to date with our evening Fiscal Compact refendum bulletin.

EVERY EVENING, THEJOURNAL.IE brings you the latest news and campaign moves, squabbles and – hopefully – useful tidbits of information as we face into the 31 May Fiscal Compact referendum.

(If you just want to make up your mind by yourself, you can read TheJournal.ie‘s layman’s guide to the treaty).

WHAT’S NEW?

  • TheJournal.ie was at the Irish Life building in Dublin for the Last Word referendum debate on Today FM, liveblogging the proceedings minute-by-minute. It got quite heated between the speakers at times – so check out all the excitement here.
  • Notably, during the debate Jobs Minister Richard Bruton suggested that Ireland could seek to hold a second referendum if the country rejects the Fiscal Compact treaty on 31 May – before later retracting that statement .
  • The National Women’s Council held their debate on the Stability Treaty this morning, where women were urged to vote Yes by Dublin Labour MEP Emer Costello.  She said that Europe “has been an overwhelmingly positive experience for Irish women” due to directives on equal pay, anti-sex discrimination and maternity rights.
  • The latest poll on the upcoming referendum shows that 35 per cent of referendum voters ‘don’t know’ how they will vote. The new Millward Brown Lansdowne poll for the Irish Independent showed that 37 per cent intend to vote yes, while 24 per cent will say No to the Treaty.
  • Irish NGOs have made a submission to the Oireachtas Committee on European Union Affairs, calling for greater public debate about Ireland’s position in key European decisions that will impact people in Ireland.
  • Paypal has pledged its backing of a Yes vote, according to Louth Labour TD Gerald Nash. He said that the company’s Vice-President Louise Phelan, “gave a very positive account of why job creators such as PayPal want to see the Treaty supported by the Irish people” at an event in Dundalk today.
  • Speaking at a public Fiscal Treaty Information Forum organised by Irish not-for-profit organisation European Movement Ireland in Dublin this morning, David Begg, General Secretary of the Irish Congress of Trade Unions (ICTU), said that he believed Europe is on course to becoming increasingly more integrated and “we [Ireland] can’t afford to be left without a seat when the music stops”. Jim Power, economist and commentator, argued that a rejection of the Treaty would force Irish citizens into a position where we “discover what austerity really means”.  Businesswoman Glenna Lynch argued that a ‘No’ vote would force Europe to pay more than “democratic lip service” to its citizens.  Also at the debate, UCC lecturer and political analyst, Dr Jane Suiter, revealed Ireland’s poor performance in rankings of overall knowledge about Europe.

KNOCKBACK OF THE DAY:

Shane Ross proposed a bill to allow a delay to the referendum – but his suggestion was dismissed by the Tánaiste.

The discussion took place in the Dáil today, when Ross said he had written a bill which would offer the government the chance to change the referendum date if events necessitated it. But Labour leader Eamon Gilmore dismissed the suggestion 0utright, saying it was an “extreme measure” when Ross “can’t even make up his mind as to how to vote on the Treaty”.

TEAMS OF THE DAY:


(Hugh O’Connell/TheJournal.ie)

A shot straight from the scene of the Last Word referendum debate. You can catch up on all the action here.

T-SHIRT OF THE DAY:

Fancy showing off your opinion on both Euro 2012 and the treaty referendum? Well now you can, thanks to this t-shirt designed by Fergus O’Neill. According to O’Neill, “you’ll get two years” out of the t-shirt, which is available to buy here.

POINTED GIFT OF THE DAY

Declan Ganley of Libertas turned up at Government Buildings in Dublin today clutching a copy of 52 Great Poker Tips: At home, at tournament and online. (Pic via Mary Minihan on Twitter)

According to John McGuirk on Twitter, Ganley dropped the book into Taoiseach Enda Kenny. Was he giving him tips on poker faces – or ‘gently’ suggesting the referendum is gambling on Ireland’s future?

Read in full: The Fiscal Compact treaty in layman’s terms (PDF)

In full: TheJournal.ie‘s coverage of the Fiscal Compact referendum

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34 Comments
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    Mute Auntie Dote
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    May 17th 2012, 9:38 PM

    Here’s a woman voting NO. The idea that we should shut down our critical faculties and shut up already in order to show Europe some friendship is very strange on the face of it. Yes, Europe has done some good here. But, what kind of friend doesn’t tell you when you’re about to make a huge mistake!

    We Irish know already what a huge mistake the Bank Guarantee was for us – and that was only local and temporary. Why should we not warn the rest of Europe that the idea of enshrining a permanent, Europe-wide Bank Guarantee – in the form of the EMS- is a really, really bad idea. As is the idea of handing over all future budgetary control to outside interests – which are not guaranteed not to be vested elsewhere.

    I cannot understand why the establishment is so keen on this last disempowerment, unless they have their collective eyes on attaining the best sinecure of all – full pay and no decisions to make ever again.

    38
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    Mute Scrap Croke Park
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    May 17th 2012, 9:25 PM

    I’d love to send Pearse Doherty over to Merkel and have him tell her to take the private German bank debt belonging to Anglo back to Herr Fatherland, and if not we’ll reduce corporation tax to 2% and grant Irish passports to all German nationals with a net worth of over 100 million.

    There’s acres of them apparently

    35
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    Mute John Johnson
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    May 17th 2012, 10:53 PM

    SINN FEIN HAVE ALWAYS SAID THEY ARE IN FAVOUR OF INCREASING CORPORATION TAX

    19
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    Mute Scrap Croke Park
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    May 17th 2012, 9:19 PM

    PayPal want a Yes so the overfed lads in the IDA/Enterprise Ireland can continue to fork out R & D money to them

    35
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    Mute Eric De Red
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    May 17th 2012, 9:51 PM

    OH WHAT COWARDS WE ARE!

    We should sign this treaty so we can continue to borrow borrow borrow to fund our bankrupt public service and bankrupt banks?

    STOP THE BORROWING NOW!

    All we are doing is selling out our children so the cosseted classes can continue their feast at the trough!

    33
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    Mute Scrap Croke Park
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    May 17th 2012, 10:01 PM

    With ya all the way Eric. And there’s thousands who feel the same but I don’t know of a single politician arguing this for us

    18
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    Mute Scrap Croke Park
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    May 17th 2012, 10:04 PM

    I think Inda’s peoples are about to leave a horses head in his bed. (Metaphorically of course)

    On yer bike Inda. And we thought we’d seen the worst leaders ever in anorak and rubberlips

    20
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    Mute John Johnson
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    May 17th 2012, 10:55 PM

    Vote Yes = control on amount that can be borrowed
    vote no = no control
    your slightly confused

    10
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    Mute Eric De Red
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    May 17th 2012, 11:06 PM

    @ John

    This treaty is proposed so that we can carry on borrowing.

    Why should our children feed the piggies at the trough?

    18
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    Mute John Johnson
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    May 17th 2012, 11:28 PM

    no it’s not….. but voting yes does give access to funds…. voting yes limits governments on the amount they can borrow. voting no is voting to not limit governments on the amount they can spend (borrow)
    only governments that ratify the treaty have access to the emergency funding if required (this is where you are confused)

    8
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    Mute Scrap Croke Park
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    May 17th 2012, 11:34 PM

    @John. The Yes side promise Armageddon if we vote No. The No side (official) say it’s party time. Now I’m a No voter who believes the Yes sides “no more money statement”. I pray its true. That’s three sides.

    But now theres a 4th? Are you a Yes voter because u believe the No side saying it will mean we can borrow less?

    I am confused now

    11
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    Mute John Johnson
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    May 17th 2012, 11:54 PM

    I think your right………………………. that your confused :)

    4
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    Mute Tony Skillington
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    May 17th 2012, 9:13 PM

    Anyone else getting burnt out from all this?

    24
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    Mute rodrigo detriano
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    May 17th 2012, 9:24 PM

    PayPal getting grants right left and centre from government! Why wouldn’t they endorse a yes vote? Ask HSE workers up to their neck in work and debt because of government austerity measures, that hammer the decent people, if they’re endorsing a yes vote!! If they are, it’s only because of fear! Fine Gael/ Labour are treacherous bastards!!!!

    40
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    Mute SeanNorris
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    May 17th 2012, 10:58 PM

    My thoughts exact, please make go away la la la!

    10
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    Mute john g mcgrath
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    May 17th 2012, 10:28 PM

    That’s the problem when you put a man in the top chair who won’t debate the issues in a public forum not just the rarefied air of Kildare street

    18
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    Mute Seamus McGrath
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    May 17th 2012, 10:31 PM

    seriously… paypal? wait till the corp tax goes up and we wont see them for dust

    17
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    Mute Eric De Red
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    May 17th 2012, 11:08 PM

    No PayPal won’t be around to pay the debt with which this treaty will enslave our children.

    15
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    Mute John Johnson
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    May 17th 2012, 11:02 PM

    Sinn Fein & Co. say vote no to austerity.
    How is a no vote going to end austerity ?
    Where do they think they are going to find the money to end austerity ?
    As usual populist BS from Sinn Fein

    17
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    Mute Eric De Red
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    May 17th 2012, 11:22 PM

    Sinn Fein haven’t a clue but they are right to advocate a NO vote.

    TELL GERMANY WHERE TO GO!

    These guys stuck the knife in big when we went cap in hand begging to bail out their banks!

    SIMPLY STOP THE BORROWING NOW!

    Cut the bloated pay of our lords and masters: the public ‘servants’ and the politicians. Balance the books.

    VOTE NO AND EXIT THE EURO FOR GOOD MEASURE!

    Just the threat of this will force Germany to put a deal on the table. We have them by the short and curlies, just as we did when we ‘negotiated’ the bailout. This time we might choose not to bend over and take it up the a**!

    16
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    Mute John Johnson
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    May 17th 2012, 11:31 PM

    Eric voting yes is about balancing books, you have it the wrong way round

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    Mute Cal Mooney
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    May 17th 2012, 11:34 PM

    John/Eric,

    SF policies and economic costings have been validated by the Dept of Finance. The last government and previous government have been doing a great job at the propaganda slagging off their policies. Just like the propaganda they are putting out about the “Stability” treaty. Please go on to the SF website and come back on here and explain which of their policies would not be appropriate for this country. They want to invest 1 billion euro in upgrading Ireland broadband services. Right now the average Broadband speed in Ireland is less than 10 Meg, In Europe, the average is over 50 meg. This is putting Ireland at a very distinct disadvantage when trying to get smaller business in a position to expand. Ireland needs this type of forward thinking to make it more competitive. But so many people don’t realize that SF are always looking 5-10 years ahead, whereas the current and past Governments don’t look past the next opinion polls, and what money they can get for themselves.

    13
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    Mute Scrap Croke Park
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    May 17th 2012, 11:45 PM

    It will hopefully bring a short sharp shock. We can grow then. Like Latvia, Estonia, even Germany who had the luxury of wage restraint when the rest of Europe bathed in champagne. Well the champagne is gone. We need sever cuts in
    Public service at the top and flesh wounds at the bottom

    6
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    Mute John Johnson
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    May 17th 2012, 11:50 PM

    Cal I will join Sinn Fein if you explain this to me. Sinn Fein say vote no to Austerity.
    How will a no vote end austerity. Please if you can answer that specific question because at the moment I think it is a populist sound bite

    8
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    Mute Cal Mooney
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    May 18th 2012, 12:06 AM

    John, SF say that by voting No to austerity, refers to the 2015-2015 time period. If we vote No to this treaty, we have a much stronger hand in forcing the EU to finally address the un-sustainable level of sovereign debt that is totally crippling our ability to borrow at reasonable rates on the world markets. That is almost 70 billion euro.
    Once this 70 billion is addressed (and we can threaten to default on those payments, as a means of persuading the EU to accept the deal, in order to maintain stability in the EU (Greece got a 50% write-down of all its debt, Ireland is only lookng for a write-down on the banking debt, not fiscal spending debt).
    This would automatically reduce our annual budget defecit down to < 6%). By capping all public sector salaries at 100k, we would reduce the the defecit by 700 million per year). By adding an extra 4% onto PAYE for all earnings over 100k per year would bring in an estimated 1 billion per year. This will leave us sitting at a 3% fiscal defecit. Once we are at this point, the economy would be stabilized, and once stabilized, confidence will return, and we could very easily grow the economy and reduce the fiscal debt naturally (due to the growth) without adding any new taxes or tax increases on those that can least afford to pay.

    11
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    Mute Cal Mooney
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    May 18th 2012, 12:08 AM

    Of course .. let me clarify, the 70 billion euro write down refers to the private banking debt that was converted into sovereign debt. We do have almost 120 billion euro of fiscal sovereign debt that we grew ourselves.

    7
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    Mute seamus mcdermott
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    May 18th 2012, 6:31 AM

    “…populist BS from Sinn Fein”

    I see they’re up 7 points in the political party popularity polls. Banker’s haircuts are increasingly popular.

    1
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    Mute Paul Harvey
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    May 18th 2012, 7:45 AM

    I don’t know how we can vote on a treaty that neither side knows what the knock on effect will be. Yes they say we will have access to funds but at what cost. It’s a gamble and we know where gambling has got us so I’m going with the No vote

    6
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    Mute John Johnson
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    May 18th 2012, 12:38 AM

    “the un-sustainable level of sovereign debt that is totally crippling our ability to borrow at reasonable rates on the world markets.” This is the reason that I think we need access to ESM funds. I do believe Germany, France etc don’t gice a fuc about us, but that is why I also believe that they would let us go to the wall. If we got a write down on our debt, then why shouldn’t spain, italy, portugal etc .(which I believe we should on bank bailout money)
    If a mass write off of deft occured on this scale, colapse of the entire banking system probably around the whole world would follow. All them bonds are mostly peoples pensions, saving etc and if they can be tore up with such ease then no one will invest in bonds.

    5
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    Mute seamus mcdermott
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    May 18th 2012, 6:34 AM

    I think you really have to take a hard look at what “bonds” are out there. There is so much trash being peddled by the likes of Goldman-Sachs and their ilk it makes me shudder. Here is an article about Goldman’s naked short selling practices that should make your skin crawl. These are the boys the Irish government went to bat for, covering their losses with your money.

    http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/blogs/taibblog/accidentally-released-and-incredibly-embarrassing-documents-show-how-goldman-et-al-engaged-in-naked-short-selling-20120515#disqus_thread

    1
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    Mute Damocles
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    May 18th 2012, 10:05 AM

    Absolutely. Vote Yes.

    There’s nothing wrong with borrowing your way out of debt. It’s not as if that caused the crisis in the first place.

    5
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    Mute Peter Faulkner
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    May 18th 2012, 9:24 AM

    I will be voting yes in both!!

    1
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    Mute Alex Pigot
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    May 18th 2012, 7:08 AM

    The European project from the inception of the coal and steel agreement through EEC, EC , EU and monetary union, has snuffed out one by one the centuries old regional conflicts across Europe and has brought a continent wide peace which appears to be a lasting one. A no vote will only weaken the stability of that peace. Money may be important to most, but is peace not more important to all?

    1
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    Mute Eric De Red
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    May 18th 2012, 10:27 AM

    @John Johnson

    This treaty says its about prudent limits on government borrowing.

    But this government wants to use it to carry out more borrowing.

    We are overborrowed as we are.

    NO MORE BORROWING!

    Take the hit and the pain now. Don’t let our cowardice leave this for another generation to sort out.

    No confusion on my part, I don’t trust this government to stop the borrowing.

    I’M VOTING NO!

    1
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