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Gustavo Garello
people's vote

Pressure mounts on May to publish Brexit legal advice, as Gove says People's Vote is possible

Michael Gove admitted that a second Brexit referendum was possible, but added that it would “rip apart the social fabric” of the UK.

UK PRIME MINISTER Theresa May is coming under increased pressure to publish the Attorney General’s analysis of her Brexit Withdrawal deal negotiated with the EU.

The UK’s AG Geoffrey Cox is to address the House of Commons today giving a summary of his advice, but his confidential comments to May are reported to be much harsher.

The DUP, who are supporting Theresa May’s Tory government, have teamed up with Labour to demand that the advice be published before the House of Commons votes on the Brexit deal.

Meanwhile, the Telegraph is reporting that May’s chief Brexit advisor has warned her that the backstop provisions is a “bad outcome” for the UK.

Brexiteers are concerned that if they accept the current deal, it will lock the UK in a customs deal that they won’t be allowed to withdraw from until a new trade deal is agreed with the EU, which could take years to negotiate.

Theresa May is already struggling to convince British lawmakers to back her Brexit deal – formally signed off by EU leaders last weekend – in a key vote in parliament on 11 December.

If, as widely expected, it is voted down, what happens next remains highly uncertain. But the backers of a so-called “People’s Vote” argue it opens up an opportunity to ask Britons to think again.

On the BBC’s Andrew Marr show last night, Environment Secretary Michael Gove admitted that a second Brexit referendum was possible, but added that it would “rip apart the social fabric” of the country, and would undermine democracy.

“There is a growing momentum behind the campaign for a second referendum,” said Constantine Fraser, an analyst research consultancy TS Lombard.

It will become a serious option on the table if, or more likely when, Theresa May’s deal is voted down.
I wouldn’t say it’s a probability, but it’s a likelihood that’s growing fast.

The hopes of second referendum advocates were further strengthened by EU President Donald Tusk on Friday.

Speaking at the G20 summit in Buenos Aires, Tusk said a rejection of the deal by the British parliament would leave just two options – “no deal or no Brexit at all”.

Barriers to another vote

There are significant structural barriers to a second vote, according to analysts.

“You would need the government to actually table a proposal, have a vote in favour of it, which would require cross-party support,” Nick Wright, a fellow in EU politics at University College London, told AFP.

May has repeatedly ruled out halting Brexit or holding another vote, and it would be hard without her support.

“It’s not impossible,” noted Fraser.

“If it becomes clear that there’s political pressure for it in parliament, the government may have no other option politically.”

A cross-party group of MPs on Thursday laid down an amendment to May’s EU withdrawal legislation in a bid to stop a no-deal Brexit emerging as the default fallback option.

The proposed amendment would hand power to lawmakers if her plan is rejected in the House of Commons – and could potentially provide a legislative pathway for a referendum.

Labour’s Shadow Brexit secretary Keir Starmer said it had his “full support”, tweeting it was a “great amendment”.

Britain has legislated to leave the European Union on March 29, 2019, after triggering Article 50 – the treaty mechanism used to exit the bloc – two years earlier.

It is unclear if the Article 50 process could be paused or reversed unilaterally by the government. Europe’s top court is expected to rule on the matter in days.

Britain could also try to agree a delay with the EU.

“Whether the EU agrees to extend Article 50 will depend on why the UK is asking,” said Fraser.

Some analysts think Brussels would be open to a delay for another referendum, but not for further negotiations.

- with reporting from AFP

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