Sign in. It’s quick, free and it’s up to you.
An account is an optional way to support the work we do. Find out more.
Democrats James Talarico, Mary Peltola and Abdul El Sayed are challenging Republicans for seats in the Senate Alamy
Final Stretch
A blue Texas? A blue Senate? Here are the Irish times we might get key results from US midterms
Polls are showing Democrats competing in deep red states, but when might we know if the blue wave materialises?
THE US ONCE again goes to the polls today. This time it’s for the midterm elections that most have billed as a referendum on Donald Trump’s presidency.
The midterms are held every two years and see various elections across the country for the House of Representatives, the Senate and state-level races like governorships.
With Trump’s approval rating at a record low, Democrats are expected to flip the House, but over the last few weeks there has been growing blue hope that they could flip the Senate as well.
All 435 House seats and 35 of the 100 Senate seats are at stake, along with governorships in 36 states. Democrats need only three House gains and a net four seats in the Senate to secure a majority in both chambers.
But when might we start getting results this side of the Atlantic, and what are the key races?
Is everything bluer in Texas?
Coming into this election cycle, many people would have been agape at the thought that a deep red state like Texas could be the deciding factor in who controls the US Senate.
Democrat James Talarico is challenging Republican Ken Paxton to do something that hasn’t been done in several decades: flip the southern state blue.
The New York Times’ last poll before election day put the Democrat seminarian up by seven points in a state that Trump won by the largest margin in two decades.
Polls in Texas close between 1am and 2am Irish time and most people in the state tend to vote on election day.
This race is expected to be close though, so it could be several hours before we get results. In 2022 and 2024, CNN called Texan elections by 4am Irish time.
One battleground after another
People will also be keeping a keen eye on states like Michigan where Abdul El-Sayed has become a trailblazer for the Democrats.
He’s up against Mike Rodgers and has been the subject of much of the high-level Republicans’ wrath this election cycle, with Trump personally attacking him in various racist and Islamophobic tirades.
The New York Times poll has El-Sayed the furthest ahead of all the battleground Democrats at 11 points up. Trump flipped this state in 2024.
Michigan’s polls close statewide at 2am Irish time, but we could be waiting a while for this to be called. CNN called statewide elections there in 2022 and 2024 between 7am and 9pm Irish time the following day.
Maine is another state Democrats will be hoping to flip. This time they’ve fielded Troy Jackson against long-serving Republican Susan Collins.
Collins has held on to her seat in Maine since 1997, even through elections where Republicans have been wiped out. But, the New York Times has Jackson polling a six-point lead, so it’s possible.
Maine’s voting rules are more complex. Last time around most elections there weren’t called till between one and three days after the vote.
If neither candidate wins a majority of ballots cast, it moves to ranked choice tabulation, which could take over a week. This outcome shouldn’t be discounted in an election where Trump and others will likely try to challenge results.
Trump is three-for-three for election wins in Ohio, but with Democrat Sherrod Brown polling five points ahead of Republican Jon Husted, it’s in contention.
Ohio tends to report mail-in and absentee ballots first, which lean Democratic, and the state generally is quick at reporting day-of votes. Based on 2024, we could have a result here by 5am Irish time.
Voters in Kansas haven’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932, but, much like Texas, a Democratic pastor is leading the Republican in the final polls here.
Adam Hamilton is five points up on incumbent Roger Marshall in the state Trump won by 16 points in 2024.
Polls there close by 2am Irish time. CNN called Kansas in 2022 and 2024 by 5am Irish time.
The final two states being touted as battlegrounds are Alaska and Iowa, both traditionally deep red.
In Alaska, Mary Peltola is challenging incumbent Republican Dan S. Sullivan and leading in the polls by a narrow two points.
The earliest results were called there in 2022 and 2024 was over a day after election day, so it could be early on Thursday morning for people in Ireland.
In Iowa, Democrat Josh Turek leads by a single point against Republican Ashley Hinson.
Irish people knew Iowan results in 2022 and 2024 by 4am.
One other state to keep an eye on is South Carolina, where voters have elected Republicans to the Senate every election cycle this century.
Here Darline Graham has been in the seat since her brother Lindsey Graham died back in July. But, she’s been polling neck-and-neck with Democrat Annie Andrews.
Given how well-regarded Lindsey Graham was in the state, it would be shocking for anyone with the surname to lose, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility.
Irish people could have results in South Carolina between 2am and 3am.
Probably a blue House, but by how much?
Democrats only need a few seats to flip the House this cycle, which most polls have expected them to secure.
Cook Political Report predicts the Democrats will secure at least 222 seats there with another 18 marked as a toss-up. This isn’t a big surprise, Democrats flipped control of the House in 2018 during Trump’s first term and the party in the White House almost always lose seats here in the midterms.
But the interesting thing here will be to look at how Democrats, particularly more progressive types, do in more traditionally Republican areas.
If Democrats outperform and secure a bigger majority here than expected, it will inform their candidate choice for the looming 2028 presidential election.
have your say