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Trump speaks to reporters before boarding Air Force One on 28 October Alamy
midterm elections
Here’s why Democrats are accusing Trump of trying to ‘steal’ the upcoming midterm elections
Trump has offered a million dollars to anyone reporting voter fraud that results in an arrest and conviction.
THE US MIDTERM elections take place next week, and it is looking bad for president Donald Trump and his Republican Party.
Some of this is due to the usual patterns of elections in the US – the president’s party often loses seats in Congress, and occasionally loses control of one or both houses of Congress.
But a lot of this is down to Trump himself, with 60% of voters disapproving of the job he’s been doing so far in his second term and only 38% approving.
Polling also shows a majority of Americans would prefer a Congress controlled by Democrats, with an NBC average of national polls finding 52% of voters want Democrats to control Congress while 43% want to see Republicans remain.
While turnout for midterm elections is usually much lower than it is for a presidential election, they are pivotal for shaping Trump’s final two years in office.
In the unlikely event that the Republicans retain control of both the House and the Senate, Trump would enter his final two years with a renewed mandate and few constraints to carrying out his agenda.
But should his party lose control of the House or Senate, or both, Democrats will have new powers of oversight and investigation into Trump and there will likely be loud calls for impeachment.
Trump tried to overthrow the 2020 presidential election after he lost to Joe Biden and has repeatedly questioned the validity of the upcoming election in which Democrats are forecasted to make big gains.
Dan Geary, Mark Pigott Professor in US History at Trinity College Dublin, told The Journal that given Trump’s election denialism for 2020, “we shouldn’t be surprised by any efforts to interfere in the democratic process”.
Here’s some of what his administration has been up to in the run-up to the elections.
Minnesota
Trump this week inserted himself into the Minnesota Senate race and claimed the only way in which the Republican nominee could lose is if “they cheat by playing games with the Ballots as they come in”.
He warned that the federal government would be watching that particular race “very closely”.
This resulted in Democrats accusing Trump of “laying the groundwork” to “steal” the midterm elections.
Geary told The Journal that Trump’s remarks around the Minnesota race “undermine the whole democratic process and deny legitimacy to the results”.
“We’ve never had anything like this really in American history before,” he added.
Geary also said it seems Trump is already “trying to spin the post-election narrative and to say, if the Democrats do win, that they didn’t win fairly”.
Voter fraud arrests
Studies repeatedly show that while rare cases of voter fraud exist, such incidents are minuscule and do not influence election results.
However, Trump and his party have been ramping up fears around alleged voter fraud in the run-up to the election.
This week, Trump offered a million-dollar cash reward for anyone with information about wrongdoing.
“Anybody reporting Voter Fraud in the past Elections, or the upcoming 2026 Midterm Election, will be paid $1,000,000 upon the arrest and conviction of those that created the Fraud!” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform.
Trump gave no details on how this reward would be funded or administered.
Geary said this could be part of a ploy to ”try to discredit the election results after they happen”.
“There’s never been any evidence of widespread voter fraud and the fact he’s offering this million-dollar reward smacks of desperation,” said Geary.
“I think this is less about deterring voters, although it may partly have that effect, and is more about saying after the fact if they lose, that the Democrats only won because they stole the election.”
Meanwhile, Geary said voter fraud claims might even hurt Trump with his own base and lower turnout.
“If Trump talks a lot about voter fraud, if his followers actually believe him, they might say, ‘you know, the whole thing is rigged, so why bother in the first place?’”
Elsewhere, in California last week, federal officials invited right-wing media outlets to watch the arrests of some of the 28 residents they have charged with crimes including fraudulently registering to vote in cases that date back as far as 2002.
Los Angeles County Supervisor Janice Hahn warned that the arrests amounted to “voter intimidation and a blatant attempt to undermine trust in our midterm elections”.
She added that the arrests were “being used to paint a picture of widespread voter fraud when we know that is not the case”.
Ice agents at polls
Trump meanwhile has refused to rule out extraordinary measures around the vote and last month told Time magazine: “I don’t rule anything out or in. We’ll see.”
He also declined to dismiss the possibility of using Immigration and Customs Enforcement (Ice) agents at voting locations or invoking the Insurrection Act, which allows presidents under certain circumstances to deploy troops domestically.
This set alarm bells ringing among immigrants, who fear they might be targeted on the way to the polling station.
As a result, voting rights activists are hitting back with initiatives like “Vote Safe”.
The campaign puts clergy, veterans, teachers and other volunteers at voting stations where they will explain voting rights, try to de-escalate confrontations and document intimidation or other misconduct.
Geary remarked that placing Ice agents at polls is “probably the most likely way he would seek to interfere with the elections”.
“We know the cruelty that Ice have acted with, and I think this would really possibly deter Latino turnout, if it happens.
“On the other hand, it could be something that backfires on Trump because if someone is seen to be taking away your voting rights, it might make you want to defy them and go out and vote.”
Meanwhile, early voting is already underway and Geary noted that the Latino turnout seems to be at “very high levels in early voting”.
“Part of that may be a backlash, and part of that may be people wanting to get their votes in before the official election day, because if Ice agents are deployed, they’ll be deployed then.”
Alaska
Last week, Trump ordered a Justice Department lawsuit seeking to prevent certification of Alaska’s Senate election result if the Republican incumbent, senator Dan Sullivan, loses.
In its lawsuit, the Justice Department alleged that the presence on the Alaska ballot of a minor additional candidate named Dan J. Sullivan Jr is part of a deliberate ploy to confuse voters and harm the Republican incumbent’s chances.
On Sunday, a federal judge dismissed the lawsuit, saying it would be unworkable.
Democrats and Sullivan Jr himself, a registered Republican, had previously denied this but a New York Times report this week revealed there was indeed a secret plan involving top Democratic operatives to recruit candidates to split votes from senator Sullivan.
The plan was to track down and persuade another Daniel Sullivan to run for Senate, in the hope this could sow confusion and cost the senator crucial votes.
The lawsuit asks for certification of a Democratic win to be held up pending investigation if the Republican incumbent’s losing margin is smaller than the votes won by his namesake.
Geary noted that while this “kind of dirty trick has been played by both sides, it obviously doesn’t do a lot of credit to the Democratic candidate in Alaska”.
And while Geary said it makes the Democratic candidate Mary Peltola “look dishonest”, he noted that the ploy is not illegal.
On Sunday, the ruling by Judge Sharon Gleason said that such an attempt “would likely result in voter ‘confusion and consequent incentive to remain away from the polls.’ Such late-breaking changes to the election rules are strongly disfavored,” the ruling said.
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