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Former Taoiseach Leo Varadkar talks with count staff at Phibblestown Community Centre as counting continued in the 2020 general election. Alamy Stock Photo
The Morning Lead
The votes have been cast, but when will we know the results?
If 2020 is anything to go by, it could be quite some time before we know who all the members of the next Dáil will be.
It means close to 700 candidates have been vying for votes across 43 constituencies to fill the 174 seats in what will be the largest ever Dáil Éireann.
We could be facing a slightly longer count than last time as a result.
The exit poll released late last night gives an indication of what the next Dáil will look like, but the only poll that matters is the one that voters took part in yesterday.
Here’s what we can expect today and over the weekend.
Counting
Around the country, the ballot boxes will be opened at 9am and the counting will get underway.
In 2020, just over 2.2 million votes were cast, a turnout rate of close to 63%.
Couting staff during the 2020 general election count at the Nemo Rangers GAA Club in Cork Alamy Stock Photo
Alamy Stock Photo
Voters went to the polls on Saturday, 8 February in 2020 and counting got underway at 9am on Sunday, 9 February.
The counting in 2020 lasted right up until midnight on Monday, 10 February, when Cavan-Monaghan was the last constituency to fill their seats at 11.59pm.
When the counting starts, staff will tally the first preference votes for each candidate, which can take some time.
However, at around 10am, initial tallies from will come out across the country which will give an indication on the state of play across the 43 constituencies.
Sinn Fein leader Mary Lou McDonald celebrates with supporters after topping the poll in Dublin central at the RDS count centre in 2020 Alamy Stock Photo
Alamy Stock Photo
Meanwhile, tallies from Cork South Central at around 11am had Sinn Féin’s Donnchadh Ó Laoghaire out-polling both Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin and Fine Gael’s Simon Coveney, a lead Ó Laoghaire held on to.
From around 1pm, the tallies begin to take real shape and we can begin to reasonably predict who will win, or lose, a seat.
For example, in 2020, Sinn Féin’s Aengus O Snodaigh entered the RDS in Dublin before 1pm and was greeted by cheers as it was clear he would take a seat – he went on to be elected on the first count.
On the other end of the scale, Fine Gael’s Seán Kyne, who was then the government’s chief whip, became aware he was in trouble of losing his seat at around 1.30pm – it was 30 hours later that it became official that he would not be retaining his seat in Galway West.
The tallies will give us a good indication of how the official first counts will go.
In 2011, Dublin West was the first constituency to return a first count at 2.47pm.
In 2016, it was Galway East at 2.53pm but in 2020 we had to wait until 4.22pm until the first count, whenSinn Féin’s Donnchadh Ó Laoghaire was elected in Cork South Central.
The results then came rolling in thick and fast over the next hour and a half, and by 6pm nine further candidates were elected.
Come 8pm, 27 candidates had been elected to Dáil Éireann.
However, while some constituencies had already completed their second count by 8pm, others had yet to complete their first, such as Dublin Bay North, where the first count came in at around 8.05pm.
It took even longer in other constituencies, with Longford-Westmeath, Kerry, Donegal and Cavan-Monaghan still not registering their first count as the clock struck 9pm.
And while Galway East was able to elect all its TDs by 9.40pm last time out, it was 10.30pm before Cavan-Monaghan was able to return a first count, making it the last constituency in the country to do so.
Counting continues
It now becomes a question of stamina – will count staff persevere through the night or call it a day?
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Count centres make a decision on a case-by-case basis when to stop counting for the night, usually around midnight.
But it can be earlier for others.
Cavan-Monaghan returned its first count at 10.30pm, electing Sinn Féin’s Matt Carthy and Fine Gael’s Heather Humphreys, and decided to call it a night there and then.
Staff in the RDS did similar shortly after.
However, come 11pm, three constituencies – Clare, Galway West and Kildare North had yet to elect a TD.
Galway West persevered into the small hours with its count, and in the Roscommon-Galway count centre, hardy staff kept at it until the early hours despite the lights going out.
A first TD wasn’t elected in Galway West until 11am the following day, despite the best efforts of staff who worked into the wee hours.
Come the morning after in 2020, 13 of the then 39 constituencies had finished counting, with 26 still to go.
It’s uncertain if the additional four constituencies and extra Dáil seats up for grabs will add to count times.
And if 2020 is anything to go by, we could be looking at two full days of counting before we learn the complete makeup of the next Dáil.
In 2020, counting started at 9am on 9 February, and it was at just before midnight, at 11.59pm on 10 February, that Cavan-Monaghan delivered the final results in the country, when Fianna Fáil’s Brendan Smith and Niamh Smyth were elected.
Cavan-Monaghan was the last constituency to return a first count and also the last to deliver all their TDs.
So while the outlook could be reasonably clear come Saturday night, we could be waiting until the small hours of Monday before the full results are known.
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What a lot of people fail to understand is that FFFG have over the last few elections circumvented the entire purpose of the electoral process, and the abilty of the electorate to vote for the government they want.
Because FF and FG now operate as a single party government, existing in a coalition of convenience to keep everyone else out of government, by joining forces, despite the objections of grassroots members in each party.
They could in fact amalgamate into a single party, that’s entire motivation is to keep Sinn Fein out of government.
It seems that this new reality has left many voters disillusioned to the extent that they aren’t even bothering to vote.
@Dave G Doe: If instead of acting like a child in a school yard slinging insults at people that choose to vote for any party including Sinn Fein, you objectively looked at the facts you might be able to grasp the significance.
You spewing drivel about toxic shinners with the careless abandon of someone that hasn’t a clue about the history or the past actions of both Fine Fail and Fine Gael and their direct historic links to killings, bombings, etc. The timeframe might be a little longer, but the shoe still fits.
Why do you think they both constantly hark back to Sinn Fein and their IRA connections at every opportunity? It’s just a distraction from their own origins lest anyone look to closely.
The parties in question in relation to my previous comment are irrelevant, if the outcomes of the current, or any future elections are that,
1. Parties A or B, form a majority government with quasi coalition support for the other.
.
Or
2. Parties A+B form a coalition.
.
Or
3.Parties A+B form a coalition with the Greens or a few independents.
Means there is no possible outcome in which parties A+B don’t retain/cling to power, meaning that calling this situation a democracy, really stretches the definition to breaking point, it is in all practical terms a two party dictatorship, the fact that its not a jack booted overtly repressive dictatorship doesn’t change that in the slightest.
@Dvsespaña: the discourse on social media for the last few weeks indicated that people were very pro change and all revved up to vote. But it seems that didn’t happen. That is peoples choice and that is democracy.
@Dvsespaña: I don’t disagree with what you say,but I think for a lot of people,they don’t have any confidence in the other parties,it’s a sad state of affairs all right,,a case of better the devil you know,it’s not so much democracy is the problem but the shockingly poor alternative government available.
@Stephen: I am straight and never confused. I’m sorry I can’t offer you more than this, and the outgoing government won’t help you either. I do hope you find comfort in your bubble, but rest assured we will all pray for your forgiveness.
@Dave G Doe: If it wasn’t so sad for the country it’d be funny. FFG fan boys celebrating abject failure and stagnation, sounds about right. For the record no fan of ML.
@Daniel Gilroy: too many parties on the left, they need to amalgamate into one viable entity if they want to ever have a chance. The FFG share of the vote is still going down, election by election. They have 40% between them, it used to be almost 40% each, not that long ago. I’m not sure if it’s verified, but on telly last night they seemed to think young people didn’t vote in big numbers. The anti establishment vote seems to have shifted from SF to Independents.
Michael Martin and Simon Harris as rotating Taoiseach for the next 5 years with them both changing leader a year from next election and the newspapers declaring a new energy.
@Sean Hayes: Fine gael are anti disability and the vulnerable & have been in power since 2011, seeing their vote share significantly drop and housing, infrastructure buckle – emigration back up ! Jesus the tolerance, understanding level on here is scary
@Sean Hayes: no it isn’t. It’s two cheeks of the same a*** wrecking th country and they’ve had since 2011 to do something different & given free reign to demolish the country hand it over to vulture funds
@Dan Murphy: very sad to see a cohort of cork will back Corks Taoiseach only by wearing the electorate down ..nearly 40 years in power and absolutely nothing productive other than the smoking ban to show for it
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