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GE2024at a glanceTHE BOXES HAVE been opened, the count centres are heaving, and the patterns are starting to emerge.
It’s technically still all to play for, with nearly all of the tallies completed, but certain narratives are starting to take shape in the race to fill the 34th Dáil.
You can follow us throughout the day on our liveblog, but for a quick summary, here’s what we know so far.
As expected from last night’s exit poll, Sinn Féin, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil all look set to do well (except for a couple of Fianna Fáil ministers who are in trouble).
Fianna Fáil are marginally ahead in tallies, followed by Fine Gael and Sinn Féin, though it’s very tight between the three.
The Social Democrats and Labour also look like they’re going to have decent days.
At the other end of the scale, it’s not looking great for the Green Party, who look like returning just two or three of their TDs (and possibly none at all).
Their leader Roderic O’Gorman has said his party could win two or three seats (and there’s a chance they may not win any at all), while Fingal West TD Joe O’Brien has already conceded.
Some high-profile names also look to be in trouble, including: Green Party leader Roderic O’Gorman (Dublin West); his party colleagues Catherine Martin (Dublin Rathdown) and Joe O’Brien (Fingal West); Fianna Fáil’s Stephen Donnelly (Wicklow); and his party’s junior minister Anne Rabbitte (Galway East).
Last night’s exit poll said housing/homelessness was the number one issue for people when deciding how to vote (followed by the cost of living and healthcare).
More than one-in-four of those polled (28%) said that housing and homelessness was the most important factor in their vote.
Almost one-in-five (19%) cited the cost of living as the biggest factor, with almost one-in-six (17%) citing health.
Immigration was seen as a much smaller issue, despite dominating politics over the past two years, with just 6% of people citing it as the main reason why they voted the way they did.
Most people also want Micheál Martin to be the next Taoiseach (35%), followed closely by Mary Lou McDonald (34%), with Simon Harris trailing in third (27%).
The highest proportion of people (31%) also said they want a Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael Government, followed by a Sinn Féin-led Coalition without either of the other two parties (22%).
One of the biggest stories of the day is that Gerry “The Monk” Hutch is very much in the running in Dublin Central.
Tallies have him sitting fourth in a four-seater constituency, though he faces stiff competition for the final seat from Labour’s Marie Sherlock and Fianna Fáil’s Mary Fitzpatrick, who are both trailing him but may both be more transfer friendly.
In contrast, former MEP Clare Daly looks like she’s out of the running in the same constituency.
Tallies have her in fourth-last with just 4% of first-preferences (though this isn’t official yet because counting hasn’t officially started).
Despite Ireland electing the country’s first-ever far-right politicians during the local elections in June, the movement isn’t getting a similar bounce in the general election.
Tallying shows that they’re performing badly for the most part - with most of the more than 70 far-right candidates identified by The Journal looking like they’ll poll 2% or lower.
The exceptions are Ireland First leader Derek Blighe and Independents Malachy Steenson, Gavin Pepper, Stephen Kerr, and Elaine Mullally, who all tallied more than 4%.
Counting has begun in Limerick, where there was speculation that the ballot could be deemed void last night.
It emerged candidates names did not appear in alphabetical order on some ballot papers, as required by legislation.
That declaration could still come in future, for what it’s worth.
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Looks like the Green party will be all but wiped out and Donnelly losing his seat, some silver linings to take from this election should both come to pass.
@Ger Whelan: Isn’t it great!
@Nala O’ Neill: good riddance to o gorman, all going well
@Ger Whelan: The greens need to get away from tax as a climate solution. They need to show green by putting pressure on high emissions countries instead of taxing the Irish, which achieves nothing. Hope they have a real rethink for the future.
It appears people are complete i*****, voting in the same shower again
@edwardjp: if they’re doing well , why would they change?
@edwardjp: i genuinely don’t get why people like you are so surprised about this.
@edwardjp: totally agree
@brian o’leary: yourrrrrrrr hilarious
@brian o’leary: yeah a new homeless record. That’s doing well
@brian o’leary: Key word there is “IF”
@edwardjp: instead of moaning and whining…register with a party or stand as an independent and run in an election yourself. People have the right to vote as they see fit…just because you don’t like it doesn’t mean it’s wrong.
@edwardjp: So we should just vote the way you want.
@edwardjp: the harder you work, the luckier you get
@Ger Whelan: He never said he was surprised, you numbskull. Now, go on about your day.
@Sean: great point, but all the “experts” here are all mouth and no trousers. You’ll never see their names on a ballot paper. They think they can influence things by moaning here, all day, every day
@Temp Stuff: Having worked in aside variety of jobs in my lifetime, from swinging a sledge hammer all day to senior management roles, I can tell you that those who work the hardest get the poorest pay and the most abuse.
Luck is by far the greatest contributor to success.
@edwardjp: not everyone is politically left leaning. There’s v few parties I’d vote for as they are left and I know I’ll end up paying far more tax and be hounded for trying to build up my own pension over 40 plus years of working. The right wing independents don’t figure as they are 1 or 2 policy individuals. So really anyone who isn’t left leaning doesn’t have a great choice other than Fine Gael. When you think about it the much vaunted proportional representation voting system isn’t really much better than first past the post. Admittedly it’s more exciting at the count and it does allow Mr Hutch to have a proper go at getting a seat.
Catherine Martin ‘may possibly ‘ cling onto seat on gravy train…… seriously?????
SF are struggling. It’s clear on tallies that they are actually several points down on the exit poll. Transfer friendly FF and FG will win more seats leaving them in a distant third place.
@M Fahy:
FF and FG are certainly more transfer friendly between themselves but may well end up having too many candidates between them, splitting the vote between each other and allowing someone else in for that last seat.
Also SF are not as transfer toxic as they used to be, especially among other opposition parties.
Circa 60% have spoken. Meanwhile life goes on …
@Temp Stuff: FF AND FG we don’t need them
@Alan Moloney: who should replace them?
I’m so gay my advent calendars are all back doors.
In the normal course of events, Roderic O’Gorman and the Greens would be consigned to the dustbin of history, and rightly so, but the damage done to this country by O’Gorman will remain long after he has shuffled off his mortal coil!
Next Government will be FF/FG/Labour.
Mary Lou supporters are some crowd 218 transferred votes to The Monk. !!!
Ireland badly needs a MIGA candidate.
Oh, I forgot, it was never great to begin with!
@Ulick: my ballsack
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