IVAN YATES HAS warned recent changes by the government may backfire and see a slump in construction after next year, adding his voice to growing disquiet in the industry at the moves over the past week.

The pundit and former government minister is chairman of developer Ingram Homes and is a regular host at construction industry events.

Yates is the latest in the wider housing sector to make this warning; housing charities Cluid and Focus Ireland and consultancy Deloitte are among those to air concerns about the impact recent policy announcements by Housing Minister James Browne will have on home construction.

These organisations and housing insiders fear the tweaks will make it more expensive to finance and build new housing estates and apartments.

Speaking to the State of Affairs podcast, presented by ex-RTÉ journalist Áine Lawlor and former government adviser Chris Donoghue, Yates said that while “undoubtedly there’s been progress made in the last 18 months” on new housing, fears were mounting now among a number of builders.

Yates said that the expectation is that there will be approximately 40,000 homes built by the end of this year, with this number to see a small increase next year, but may drop after that.

“What looks like a healthy pipeline may not materialise and we could actually go to 42,000 [homes], and then go down again,” Yates said.

If so, it could be fatal to the government’s plan for 300,000 homes built between 2025 and 2030, as the latter years in that timeline currently need to see far greater construction take place than is happening currently.

Laying out what the government may need to deliver as its term continues, Yates said that “2028 and 2029 have to hit 50,000-plus” homes.

He said developers generally won’t voice these concerns publicly but that concern is rising over recent weeks.

“I’m hearing sounds from people who, because they’re PLCs, they don’t go public about these things,” he said.

“They’re actually quite concerned about this inflection point.”

Yates pointed to how, in the past week, Browne revealed plans to drastically reduce the number of homes that are bought by councils and housing charities built by developers, and to reports that the minister may cap the number of homes delivered each year by Approved Housing Bodies (AHBs) such as Cluid, Tuath and Respond.

Yates said there is confusion as to how much more complicated it will be for an AHB to partner with a developer for new housing under the new changes.

“These are really serious questions, but nobody can get clarification,” Yates added.

However, Yates said, “AHBS can’t sign anything without certainty and there is no certainty”, meaning that it may prove challenging for deals to be done on new sites over the coming year as things stand.

It is understood that the Department of Housing is to hold a meeting with AHBs over the coming weeks to discuss the changes in detail, while it is also expected to issue a circular on the new policy and how it will work for private developers.

The minister has consistently denied that there is any cap being implemented on AHBs, but this has been questioned by sources in the sector, with a number accusing Browne of “poor” communication.

Further issues posed to construction over the coming months, according to Yates, are whether developers will be able to avail of a levy if they can’t complete housing after December, and if enough serviceable land is zoned for new projects over the coming months.

Yates accepted he is a member of the industry but argued that it was important to listen to the concern over the past fortnight.

“Don’t assume because right now there is a healthy pipeline – there are a couple of issues here where the people who are making this happen are starting to express concern,” he said.