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IT’S SEVEN MONTHS out from the presidential election, with political parties very much in assessment mode right now as to who they might put forward.
Over the last number of weeks, there has been a bit more movement and lots more speculation, with a number of people voicing their interest (or not ruling out interest) in the top job.
Michael D. Higgins, the current president was inaugurated for his second term on 11 November 2018, meaning the next presidential election is scheduled to take place on or up to 60 days before 11 November 2025.
Well, of the two government parties, Fine Gael is the one with the most prep done so far.
Party leader and Tánaiste Simon Harris asked the Fine Gael executive council to consider the presidential contest, such as procedures, at its meeting in early April. Following that meeting a sub-committee was formed and it is to come back with recommendations.
The next meeting is due to be held of 6 May, so there may be more news then on how they plan to select the party’s candidate.
Harris told The Journal that Fine Gael plans to run its own candidate, separate to Fianna Fáil, stating that he also thinks a competition within the party for the nomination would be “healthy”.
“All the names I’ve seen of people mentioned and mooted are good, decent people that could make a fine contribution, but I am the party leader, and I’m going to reserve my judgment for the time being,” he said.
When asked if there would be a party consensus or whether Fine Gael would hold hustings for the nomination, the party leader said he would be surprised if only one candidate to put their name forward.
While he said last month that it was “relatively early days yet”, he mentioned that “there’s lots of different names being mentioned and mooted”.
Frances Fitzgerald, Mairéad McGuinness and Seán Kelly are all likely to seek the the party’s nomination. While former Minister Heather Humphreys ruled out a run when she left office, her name has creeped back into speculation of late, so she’s not to be completely ruled out.
Humphreys told Northern Sound recently that she will give a presidential bid “every consideration” and will make a final decision in May.
Sources state the party is still “assessing”, adding that it is “way too early” to be discussing possible names. It is understood that if more than one person interested in the nomination, then there will be a process set out for a selection process.
But there are names out there.
Obviously, former Taoiseach and leader of Fianna Fáil Bertie Ahern has long had his name attached to a potential bid for the Áras but over recent months he has been keeping coy when asked about it.
In July, Ahern told media that he hasn’t ruled out a potential run, but whether Fianna Fáil would be happy to have him as their candidate remains to be seen.
Last year, Ahern rejoined Fianna Fáil more than 10 years after he quit the party following the findings of the Mahon Tribunal.
MEP Barry Andrews has also been mentioned as a possibility, with another MEP, Cynthia Ní Mhurchú, also namechecked in discussions.
Labour leader Ivana Bacik wrote to leaders of the Social Democrats and the Green Party earlier this year suggesting they should unite one candidate. Initial discussions, which included People Before Profit and Sinn Féin were held, but no agreement was reached.
Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald has said she is open to the idea but most within the party believe it is more likely the party will field its own candidate, though there are concerns about being seen to lose another national vote.
A disastrous result could bruise the party further as it attempts to regroup and rebuild after the last general election.
Jarlath Burns, President of the GAA, is one name in the mix as a possible Sinn Féin candidate but it would mean cutting his GAA presidency short.
There has been chatter about McDonald herself or Michelle O’Neill running but both women have ruled it out, stating that they are focused on the jobs they have.
Has there been any further movement on a possible Left candidate?
One source said there hasn’t been anything since the initial meeting.
“There’s still no definite,” they said, though they agreed the names coming to the fore appear to be Independent senator Frances Black and Independent Galway TD Catherine Connolly.
Senator Frances Black has been vocal in media over the last year trying to push the government to enact her Occupied Territories Bill in response to Israel’s brutal assault on Gaza.
The Independent politician and singer is a popular figure, having first entered politics in 2016 upon her election to the Seanad.
Connolly, who was the Leas Ceann Comhairle in the last Dáil, is well respected across all parties and is often spoken of as being a fair-minded politician, which could work in her favour.
One person who might fit the brief is MEP Luke ‘Ming’ Flanagan who confirmed this week that running is something he might consider.
Speaking to Shannonside FM recently, Flanagan said that he believes he has a chance of winning the election, with his appeal across a number of different constituencies as a three-time independent MEP for Midlands North West.
Flanagan said: “In the European elections, I ran in a constituency with 15 counties, I topped the poll.
“I took transfers from everywhere in what would be considered, I suppose, potentially a socially conservative constituency. I would also be able to pick up votes in Dublin and in the Ireland South part of the country,” he added.
When one TD on the left was asked if parties could unite behind Flanagan, they agreed that he might do well with people on the west coast, but they weren’t sure if he’d be someone everyone could get behind.
They said left-wing parties are going to have to start moving on the candidacy “pretty quickly”, stating the election will “be on us before we realise”.
In terms of how a Left candidate would be funded, they said no discussions on that issue had taken place, but one would assume it would be a D’Hondt system, whereby those with the most seats and bigger share of the vote, would pay more into the campaign’s fund, they said.
Aontú leader Peadar Tóibín has said his party intends to run a candidate in the presidential election. The Meath West TD said his party believes there is a “significant section” of the population who do not feel represented by the “political establishment” and he believes his party can fill that void.
Businessman Peter Casey has declared he wants to run again. He got 23% of the vote in the presidential election in 2018 but he didn’t fare too great in the European Elections where he got 3% of the vote in the Midlands-North-West constituency.
Other names that have been mentioned include Independent Senator Michael McDowell, Irish Times columnist Fintan O’Toole, who said he would not rule out a bid but that he would not do it alone.
Former TD and co-founder of the Social Democrats Róisín Shortall topped a newspaper poll before Christmas as the favourite to be Ireland’s next President at 32%.
Shortall told the Mail on Sunday at the time that she ‘hasn’t decided’ what her next move will be, so watch this space.
Of course, there’s also MMA fighter Conor McGregor, who hasn’t been shy about his ambitions to be the next president.
The chances for his candidacy are slim though as candidates need the backing of 20 members of the Oireachtas or four councils to get on the ballot paper.
This gives political parties a major advantage, given the numbers.
Before the summer is out, we’re sure to have a bit more clarity on who is serious about throwing their hat in the ring.
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