AS IRELAND PREPARES for the upcoming referendum, I find myself in the midst of another divisive political campaign. On May 27 Colombians will go to the polls in the first round of a presidential election.

On every street and in all forms of media I am bombarded with propaganda, while every conversation inevitably turns to the ongoing electoral race. It is one of the most polarising elections in Colombian history and one that could profoundly transform the country.

Peace agreement

In 2016, following the narrow rejection of the initial agreement by voters, the Colombian government approved a revised peace agreement with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) following decades of civil war.

This Marxist rebel group, formed by rural peasants to fight for land reform, grew immensely powerful due to its profits from the drugs trade. Through a series of attacks on the military and terrorist bombings, it pushed the Colombian state to the point of collapse.

Paramilitary groups, formed by military officers, landowners and drug traffickers to combat the guerrillas, responded with brutal campaigns against the peasantry, massacring entire villages and driving people from their homes. The war has left more than 250,000 dead and many more injured or displaced.

Peace plebiscite

But despite the carnage and suffering caused by the conflict, many Colombians rejected the peace process. Some were angry that FARC commanders could avoid jail sentences under the special justice system.

Others feared that allowing FARC to enter politics would lead to a communist government or economic ruin. The peace plebiscite in 2016 showed wide divisions amongst voters. Those in the remote regions where the conflict is now mostly fought almost all supported the accord with FARC, while many in cities rejected it. A generation gap has emerged as young voters are far more likely to back the peace process.

These divisions have given rise to a polarising presidential campaign. Iván Duque, with the backing of far-right former president Alvaro Uribe, has emerged as the frontrunner in the race.

The candidates

He is wildly popular among those who reject the peace process. According to opinion polls, his closest rival is  socialist Gustavo Petro. A former member of the now demobilized M-19 guerrilla army, this former mayor of Bogotá has won enormous popularity those tired of the cosy elite who have long dominated Colombian politics.

This support for a leftist is an anomaly in one of Latin America’s most conservative countries. Meanwhile, the more centrist candidates are trailing behind in polls, most notably Sergio Fajardo who was the early favourite in the race.

This election will decide the future of the peace process. If elected, Duque will do everything in his power to undermine it and to reverse some key articles. This comes at a time when the process is faltering on several fronts.

Efforts to curb cocaine production in conflict zones have largely proved ineffective. Peace talks with the smaller Army of National Liberation (ELN) have moved very slowly and several small dissident groups from FARC have joined them in attacks on state forces.

Division and hatred

Meanwhile, the remnants of the paramilitaries remain active in many areas and have attempted to block the land redistribution at the heart of the peace deal. Often acting in alliance with local politicians and the military, they have killed many social leaders throughout the country in an effort to terrorise the local communities.

The division and hatred in Colombian politics is truly astonishing. Many right-wingers I know have called for a military coup or the assassination of Petro. There is also widespread fear amongst the electorate.

With the potential failure of the peace process and the ongoing economic and political collapse in neighbouring Venezuela, many voters fear what the future will bring for the country. The influx of over a million Venezuelan refugees to ma country which already had a high unemployment rate has caused a severe backlash.

Widespread hope

Nevertheless, there is widespread hope in many regions of the country. Some areas which were once plagued by violence are now welcoming tourists for the first time in living memory.

The very fact that a left-wing candidate is so close to the presidency is encouraging for the future of Colombian democracy – several predecessors were killed by the military or paramilitaries.

The peace process still enjoys the oversight and backing of the UN and many Colombians are determined not to let this chance for peace slip away. Hopefully their efforts will not be in vain and the country will soon see an end to the violence that has cursed it for so long.

Kieran Duffy is an Irishman living in Bogotá, Colombia. He writes about the country’s politics and ongoing peace process. He tweets at @bogota_duffy. 

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