ISRAELI PRIME MINISTER Benjamin Netanyahu and his Defence Minister Yoav Gallant are escalating and widening their attacks on Hezbollah and Lebanon. On Tuesday, the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) and Israeli Air Force (IAF) launched three separate bombing waves against targets in southern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley.

In total, Israeli forces struck approximately 2,000 targets in Lebanon over the last 36 hours. This included at least one attack in the Dahieh district of Beirut where it is reported that Hezbollah commander Muhammad al-Quabasi was assassinated. He is also reported to have had overall command of Hezbollah’s missile and rocket forces.

These attacks represent a serious escalation in Israeli actions and bring the death toll among Lebanese citizens to over 500 – including almost 100 women and at least 50 children. Approximately 2000 Lebanese civilians have been injured thus far. In the appalling calculus of war, the daily ‘attrition’ rate or ‘casualty’ rate among mostly innocent Lebanese civilians closely matches that of the IDF’s murderous operations in Gaza.

Shifting focus

In short – starting with last week’s so-called ‘pager attacks’ – Netanyahu seems to be replicating in Lebanon his operations in Gaza. The nature of the ‘pager attacks’ – the illegal and indiscriminate use of thousands of de-facto improvised explosive devices (IEDs) – demonstrates that Netanyahu has commenced his operations against Hezbollah by abandoning the laws of armed conflict. This is a clear signal to Hezbollah and the Lebanese people that the IDF are prepared and poised to conduct the same type of brutal campaign in Lebanon as conducted in Gaza – with potentially catastrophic consequences for innocent men, women and children.

Israel has also diverted approximately 15,000 ground troops north towards the border with Lebanon. These include elements of the 98th Division, the Golani Brigade and ‘elite’ reserve and regular Airborne Brigades. As these troops deploy along Lebanon’s border, in military terms, the timeline from form-up to start-line of a force this size suggests a possible ground invasion of Lebanon on or before the 7th October anniversary of Hamas’ genocidal attack on Israel last year.

Lebanon in shock

The impact of Israel’s IED and air campaign on Lebanon has been dramatic. Approximately 113,000 Lebanese civilians have become internally displaced persons or IDPs – fleeing the Bekaa Valley and south Lebanon. Approximately 28,000 Lebanese civilians are now sheltering in schools across the country and the government has closed all educational facilities countrywide from nurseries to universities. Lebanon’s hospitals are under pressure from the sheer numbers of wounded and dying arriving at emergency departments in the affected areas.

Lebanon – already under significant pressure as a ‘failing state’ – will struggle to cope with Israel’s ongoing military operations. For its part, Israel has thus far refrained from striking at Lebanon’s critical infrastructure such as power stations and transport hubs – as it has in previous interventions. This may change in the coming days as Hezbollah steps up its retaliatory attacks on northern Israel.

Despite concerted attacks on its leadership and command and control functions, Hezbollah on Tuesday – in contravention of the Geneva Conventions — fired over 100 missiles at mostly civilian targets in Israel including Kiryat Shmona, Tamra, Nof Hagalil and Elykim. Hezbollah claims to have also attacked an IDF military base at Netafim.

Netanyahu and Gallant’s stated war aims have included a ‘pivot’ or ‘broadening of the war’ from Gaza to Lebanon in order to ensure the safe return of approximately 60,000 Israeli civilians to their homes and settlements close to the Lebanese border. Despite Israel’s week-long military campaign thus far – and despite the casualties they have inflicted on Hezbollah – Nasrallah’s forces continue to fire missiles and rockets into Israeli territory. It is likely therefore that Netanyahu will have to seriously consider further escalation – in other words, a ground operation – in order to counter this threat.

A number of reports in the Jerusalem Post and in Haaretz point to a possible ‘two-phase’ ground invasion of Lebanon. The first would consist of IDF troops invading southern Lebanon in two flanking axes of advance – north to the Litani river which bisects the country north of the coastal city of Tyre. As in previous Israeli incursions into Lebanon, this would be designed to locate and destroy Hezbollah forces south of the Litani creating a ‘buffer zone’ protecting northern Israel from missile attack and cross-border incursion.

Hezbollah regrouping

This however is easier said than done. Hezbollah is not Hamas and — despite the casualties inflicted in recent days – is believed to have as many as 100,000 well trained, well equipped and well armed fighters. In the 2006 war in Lebanon, these fighters inflicted many casualties on the Israeli military – including successful anti-armour operations against Israeli tanks and armoured personnel carriers.

Any ground invasion will lead to fierce resistance from a highly motivated Hezbollah – intimately acquainted with Lebanese terrain – and unlike Hamas in Gaza, with considerable battle space and room to manoeuvre. Another complicating factor is the belief that Hezbollah has stockpiled up to 150,000 missiles – with many including Fateh-110 and Yakhont missiles capable of reaching targets throughout Israel, including Tel Aviv and as far as Eilat. Even if the IDF push Hezbollah north of the Litani, Hezbollah will still be able to fire missiles at will throughout Israeli territory. Therefore, whilst such a ‘buffer zone’ might prevent cross border attacks by Hezbollah ‘raiding parties’ – the bete noir of Israelis since Hamas’ savage attacks on 7 October – it would not neutralise the threat posed by Hezbollah’s missiles.

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This is where the concept of the ‘second phase’ of invasion arises – a push north to Beirut itself and deep into the Bekaa valley. Such an invasion would be of a scale that would be economically, militarily, politically and diplomatically unsustainable for Netanyahu’s right-wing government. World leaders – including US President Joe Biden – have cautioned Israel against such an escalation at the High Level Forum of the UN General Assembly in New York this week.

However, Netanyahu seems intent on escalation – with the risk of a regional confrontation against Iran that would potentially bring the US into this war. The United States has currently deployed aircraft carrier battle groups to the eastern Mediterranean – including a Marine Expeditionary Force (MEF) capable of carrying out ground operations.

Whilst this would represent a nightmare scenario for all parties to such a conflict – Netanyahu has shown himself to be immune to such concerns and he and his defence minister and the senior leadership of the IDF continue to commit war crimes, apparently oblivious to the consequences.

It is in this environment that hundreds of Irish troops are serving in south Lebanon as peacekeepers with UNIFIL. In the coming days their priority and focus – outside of the primary mission objectives – will be force protection and the safety of all personnel. This is a very difficult time for them – witnessing the escalation in conflict – and for their families in Ireland, it is a painfully worrying moment.

Meanwhile, the principal victims of conflict in the Middle East are – as always – innocent men, women and children. The toxic leadership of figures like Netanyahu, Sheikh Nasrallah, Hamas and the Iranian regime are unlikely to act to de-escalate. In his seminal work on conflict in Lebanon, Robert Fisk’s book is titled ‘Pity the Nation’. If this conflict escalates further – as I fear it will – it will be a case of ‘Pity the Region’ carrying with it the risk of an all-out war between Israel, the United States and Iran. To paraphrase Netanyahu himself – we are being brought to the edge of an abyss in Lebanon and Gaza. There is a categorical ethical imperative to de-escalate and there is an onus on all world leaders to work to find a diplomatic solution and a permanent ceasefire in the region.

Dr Tom Clonan is a retired Army Officer and former Lecturer at TU Dublin. He is an Independent Senator on the Trinity College Dublin Panel, Seanad Éireann.