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Opinion Poll

TV3/Millward Brown poll shows dramatic political shifts

The news isn’t great for Brian Cowen but it’s very good for Eamon Gilmore… (Sorry Enda).

A POLL FOR TV3 by Millward Brown has revealed that 71% of Irish people feel that the Taoiseach has lost credibility following his Morning Ireland radio interview last week.

The poll was based on responses given by 1,000 people nationwide.

The results indicate that a change of political leadership is desired by the Irish electorate – but it’s not good news for the main opposition party Fine Gael, as Labour seem to be getting the majority of the support with 35% of first preference votes.

Support for Fianna Fáil stood at 22%, however this figure is consistent with voters’ attitudes to the party since the beginning of the recession. The figure hasn’t changed since Brian Cowen’s disastrous radio interview – which could be some comfort for the party.

Reflecting the surge in popularity for Labour, Eamon Gilmore stands as the most popular party leader for Taoiseach according to the poll, with 36% of the vote.

Meanwhile, Enda Kenny attracted 19% and Brian Cowen just 11%. One reason behind Kenny’s weak result is that nearly half of Fine Gael supporters surveyed said that did not want him as Taoiseach.

In terms of satisfaction ratings, Eamon Gilmore comes in first with 58% of the vote. Just 24% voted for Enda Kenny and 18% for Brian Cowen. All in all, just 11% express satisfaction with the government.

However, even though 43% of those surveyed say that Cowen’s radio performance mattered to them personally, it does not appear that this will make a difference to voting behaviour, as 88% have said that they have already made up their minds.

Of those surveyed who believed that Brian Cowen had lost credibility over the radio affair (71%), this included 59% of Fianna Fáil supporters.

On the matter of who should lead Fianna Fáil, 73% support Cowen – but of those who believe Cowen should go, Brian Lenihan is the preferred successor, with 46% voting for him. Michéal Martin comes in third with just 15% of the votes.