COUNTING IS UNDERWAY in Iceland’s referendum on whether the country should resume entry talks with the European Union, with the ‘no’ vote currently in the lead.

The country went to the polls on Saturday, with a final result expected later today. Voting stations closed at 10pm local time and there were no exit polls.

The public was asked to answer “Yes” or “No” to the question: “Should Iceland resume accession negotiations with the European Union?”.

Some 177,489 of the 273,000 eligible votes have been counted so far. The ‘No’ vote is currently leading 51.8% to 48.2%, according to public broadcaster RUV.

The country of just under 400,000 applied to join the EU in 2009, a year after the 2008 financial crisis led to the collapse of its banks and economy.

Membership negotiations began in 2010 but were suspended in 2013 after a eurosceptic government came to power, and formally came to an end in 2015.

An opinion poll by analyst firm Maskina on Friday gave the ‘Yes’ side a slight edge with 50.4% of the vote, but that gap is within the statistical margin of error.

If the ‘Yes’ side wins, an accession agreement would be negotiated with Brussels and then put to a new referendum on actual membership.

The issue of fisheries – a pillar of Iceland’s economy and over which Reykjavik wants to retain exclusive control – would have to be hammered out with Brussels, which this time around appears more willing to find “creative solutions”.

Technically, the referendum result is non-binding, but the coalition government headed by Social Democratic Prime Minister Kristrún Frostadóttir has vowed to respect the result.

“This has been a tight race, extremely exciting,” she said Saturday after casting her ballot in Reykjavik.

A screen shows results from Reykjavik North as supporters of the Yes campaign react during an election-night gathering in Reykjavik. Alamy Stock Photo Alamy Stock Photo

She added that the campaign had “lifted discussions about the EU, about Iceland’s place in the world, about our general geopolitical situation and status, to a higher level”.

The government has called a press conference for Sunday at 1pm (2pm Irish time) to present its plans going forward.

If the ‘No’ side wins, the government has already vowed not to resume accession negotiations during its term, which runs until 2028, and indicated that it would refer to parliament the question of a possible formal withdrawal of Iceland’s EU membership bid.

Political analysts have said it is unlikely the government would resign.

‘A nail-biter’

“I think for the last week there has been momentum for the ‘No’ side,” Lovisa Olafsdottir, a 24-year-old consultant told AFP at a referendum watch party for the ‘No’ camp just before voting stations closed.

“Of course it will be a close call. This will be a nail-biter, but we are hopeful that we will come out on top,” said Freyr Rognvaldsson, a 48-year-old public relations employee and ‘Yes’ campaigner.

Throughout the campaign, debates have mainly revolved around domestic and economic issues, even if rising international tensions, with the war in Ukraine and US President Donald Trump’s ambitions for neighbouring Greenland, have featured in discussions.

Iceland’s economy has recovered and is now thriving.

Many see no reason to join the EU since the island is already part of the European single market through the European Economic Area, which does not cover the Common Fisheries Policy.

But Iceland’s currency is volatile, and the flip side of its newfound prosperity is soaring inflation and interest rates, leaving many indebted Icelandic households glancing longingly at the prospect of adopting the euro and its lower interest rates.

On the global stage, the return of war in Europe with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shaken established security doctrines.

Iceland is an island strategically located in the sub-Arctic. It has no military and depends on Nato and a 1951 bilateral agreement with the United States for its defence.

Trump’s unpredictability and his threats to take over neighbouring Greenland – which he has mixed up with Iceland on several occasions – have added to Icelanders’ concerns.