WEST BANKERS ARE anxiously watching as the story of Israel’s election unfolds in real time, amid fears of another Netanyahu-led government or a second election.

Celebrations broke out in Arab towns and cities on Tuesday night after exit polls projected a record result for Arab-led parties, which could win a combined 19 seats in the Knesset. Their surge has quickly become one of the defining stories of the election.

People celebrating on the street in the Arab town of Majd al-Krum in Galilee, Israel, after the exit poll came out yesterday.

At the time of writing, with more than 89% of votes counted, Israel appears to be heading for a deadlock. Neither Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc nor the opposition bloc led by former IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot appears to have secured the 61 seats needed for a parliamentary majority.

One possible outcome is an Eisenkot-led government that relies on support from Arab-led parties; Arab-led parties could either join an Eisenkot-led coalition, taking positions in government, or support it from outside by backing key votes in the Knesset without formally joining the government.

However, Eisenkot and some of his potential allies have expressed reservations about partnering with them in any type of arrangement.

From the perspective of Palestinians in the West Bank, the worst outcomes would be a Netanyahu-led unity government or another election in the spring, commentators in the region told The Journal.

Ramallah-based human rights lawyer Wael Qut said Palestinians in the West Bank had been discussing the Israeli election more than “we ever spoke about the promised Palestinian elections before they were once again postponed”.

He added that the rise in Arab voter turnout marked a seismic shift in Israeli politics.

“The 48 Palestinians have faced intensified discrimination under this current Government, and this has energised them to go out and vote,” he explained.

“What’s happened in the Bedouin city of Rahat with hundreds being displaced by home demolitions, and the establishment of new settlements in Al-Jalil, have been contributing factors. They are feeling the impact of this just as West Bankers are,” he said.

“People were happy last night when it seemed that Eisenkot was in the lead, but that has not turned out to be the situation today as more votes have been counted. Now the situation is open to many possibilities,” he added.

The two main Arab-led parties at the centre of the election are the Joint List, an Arab-majority alliance associated that focuses on left-wing policies and Palestinian national rights, and Ra’am which is led by Mansour Abbas, which has focused on the everyday needs of Arab citizens in its electioneering, and has entered a governing coalition in the past.

In the outgoing Knesset, Ra’am held five seats and Hadash–Ta’al held five, while Balad failed to cross the electoral threshold. The current preliminary count therefore points to a substantial increase in Arab-led representation.

The gains have come despite strong resistance from major Jewish-led parties to forming a government with Arab-led lists.

Netanyahu has described the prospect of a government reliant on Arab parties as “a disgrace” and has said that any coalition formed with anti-Zionist parties would “endanger” Israel.

By contrast, Yair Golan, leader of the centre-left Democrats party, who are on track to win up to 10 seats, urged opposition politicians to abandon what he called Netanyahu’s “racist” division between Jewish and Arab voters.

Joint List leader Yousef Jabareen has also called on the opposition to engage with his party if it wants to replace Netanyahu. Netanyahu has repeatedly ruled out a Palestinian state during the campaign and promised to accelerate the E1 expansion programme.

The plan would see approximately 3,400 Israeli housing units built between the Ma’ale Adumim settlement and East Jerusalem, further restricting territorial continuity between Palestinian communities in the occupied West Bank.

Although Eisenkot is also opposed to a two-state solution, he opposes the E1 expansion and has spoken about cracking down on violent settlers in the occupied Palestinian territories.

Qut said this made Eisenkot the preferable option for Palestinians in Israel and for West Bank Palestinians.

Qut added that one of the biggest fears was that Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir, Netanyahu’s far-right allies, would remain in power.

“We are in a kind of crisis now if it becomes the case that a government cannot be formed. We saw a real step up in settler violence, which in many cases the Israeli state turned a blind eye to, and also in demolitions during this election as a way of electioneering.

We don’t know to what level that will escalate if there is another election, say in March,” he said. Hisham Sharabati, a political analyst, human rights worker and former journalist in Hebron, said Palestinians were waiting and watching closely to see the outcome.

“Israel holds the key to the conditions of life here. No matter what the Palestinian Authority does, it’s Israel who controls policing and travel in and out,” he said.

“We are not expecting much improvement in life here under whatever government will be formed, but most people’s highest hope is that any incoming government won’t include Smotrich and Ben-Gvir.”

He added that under national security Ben-Gvir, who is himself a settler, “a campaign to demolish Palestinian homes has been given the green light”.

Sharabati said Palestinians had little expectation that the new illegal outposts established in recent years in the occupied West Bank would be demolished.

He added that the increase in support for Arab-led parties showed they were becoming “a strong pillar within internal Israeli politics”.

However, he warned that this did not change what he described as “the reality of the shift towards racism and fascism within Israel itself”.

“It remains to be seen whether any major bloc would do a deal with the Arab parties, because any party who does so is shamed in the country,” he said.

Sharabati stressed that the Palestinian communities on both sides of the Green Line remain closely connected.

“We are one people. Many families are made up of 48 Palestinians and then descendants of those who were displaced to refugee camps, but they still have relatives on the other side of the Green Line. But it is very difficult for them to get a permit to cross to see their families,” he said.