LAST UPDATE | 3 Mar 2024

NORTHERN IRELAND FIRST Minister Michelle O’Neill is now more popular than any of the main political party leaders in Ireland, including Sinn Féin president Mary Lou McDonald. 

That’s according to a new poll from the Sunday Independent and Ireland Thinks. 

It reports that O’Neill, who became Northern Ireland’s first nationalist First Minister last month, has an approval rating of 55%, putting her ahead of Tánaiste and Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin on 47%. 

O’Neill’s popularity in the Republic comes after she was last month interviewed by Patrick Kielty on RTÉ’s Late Late Show.

Accepting her nomination as First Minister on 3 February, O’Neill said it was a moment of “equality and progress” and a new opportunity for both sides of the Northern Ireland Assembly chamber to work together for a better future for Northern Ireland.

The Sinn Féin vice president is also more popular – by 16 points – than party leader McDonald, whose approval rating has dropped 1% to 39%. 

This leaves McDonald less popular than Taoiseach and Fine Gael leader Leo Varadkar, who stands at a 41% approval rating. 

Social Democrat leader Holly Cairns also stands at a 41% approval rating, while Labour’s Ivana Bacik is at 33% and Aontú leader Peadar Tóibín is at 27%. 

Green Party leader Eamon Ryan has the worst approval rating among party leaders, at 25%. 

Despite O’Neill’s strong approval rating, Sinn Féin’s support has dropped to 27%, down two points on last month. This is reportedly the lowest in these series of polls since April 2021. 

Fine Gael is at 20%, while Fianna Fáil is at 18%. The Green Party now stands at 4% support. 

Speaking to Newstalk’s Anton Savage Show this morning, Minister for Public Expenditure Paschal Donohoe said he believes the current Government “can get reelected”. 

“I believe, for some time, a sense of inevitability has been created regarding Sinn Féin getting into Government. I’ve never bought into this, I’ve never accepted it,” Donohoe said. 

Noting the outcome of the Sunday Independent poll, Donohoe said Sinn Féin is “a long way away from the cumulative total of the three parties that are in Government at the moment”. 

Referendums

The poll also reports that there has been a significant fall in the number of people who intend to vote Yes in next week’s family and care referendums. 

The votes, dubbed the Family Amendment and the Care Amendment, will take place on Friday 8 March.

The poll found that support for a Yes vote in the family referendum has dropped five points to 42%, with a support for a No vote down six points to 23%. 

The number of voters who are unsure or not voting has risen by 12 points to 35%. 

• Referendum Q&A: What will you be asked to vote on? And what exactly is a durable relationship?

The poll also found that support for a Yes vote in the care referendum has fallen 10 points to 39%, while support for a No vote has fallen three points to 24%. 

The number of voters who are unsure or not voting has risen by 12 points to 36%. 

The Sunday Independent/Ireland Thinks poll was carried out on Friday and yesterday among a sample size of 1,083 people with a margin or error of +/-3%.