“PENSIONERS ARE GENUINELY scared of what is going to happen this winter.”

This remark, made during the Dáil debate on pushing out the phased excise hikes, should have made those in the government benches sit up straight. 

Much has been said about the cost of petrol and diesel, the knock-on impacts it has on businesses and the cost of food, not to mention commuters. 

But there is nothing more concerning to government TDs than the mention of pensioners being too scared to put on their heating during the winter.

Interestingly, this contribution was not made by an opposition TD on Friday.

A warning not to ignore the grey vote

It was Wicklow-Wexford Fine Gael TD Brian Brennan who was sounding the warning bell for his government colleagues. 

“These are people who paid their taxes, they’ve made huge contributions to their communities in our towns and villages, and their voices may not be as loud as many others, but our pensioners deserve to be heard,” he said. 

The loud protests of the pensioners in 2008 and 2013 still ring in the ears of politicians. 

At the time, thousands protested outside Leinster House against changes to the medical card system. No government has dared to tweak the system since. 

With April’s fuel protests, the government saw what can happen when uncertainty and delays in supports result in tensions boiling over.

And with the unpredictability of what kind of winter we are facing into, it is a gamble to not make it crystal clear to pensioners and vulnerable people, sooner rather than later, what level of supports they can expect. 

We have seen in the past when they speak as one, that cohort of society has real influence and can bring a government to its knees. 

A message from a government backbencher in August, which is saying that pensioners are already fearing the winter months, deserves to be heeded.

Home heating oil prices 

That message largely centres around home heating oil. Something that has not been to the fore in the fuel crisis debate. 

Fuels for Ireland CEO Kevin McPartlan said earlier this week that more of a focus should be applied to home heating oil.

“There’s quite a lot of variance with home heating oil and there hasn’t been any gesture made on that by Government really except for the NORA levy,” he said.

“That’s going to be 50% more expensive if somebody tries to fill up their home heating oil tank this autumn than it was at the start of this crisis back in February,” he said.

Again, a warning bell should be sounding in the ears of the government deputies. 

Budget flags have been flying this summer, with mentions of increases in the fuel allowance but with a 50% increase on the price of home heating oil, any supports like that could be quickly swallowed up. 

Tánaiste Simon Harris was asked this week about the deferral of the planned carbon tax measures announced in April following the fuel protests and specifically about singling out certain fuels, such as home heating oil, and placing kerosene on a separate carbon tax trajectory than other fuels. 

The Tánaiste said no decision has been made in relation to October and the carbon tax increases, stating that there are things the government must consider. 

He pointed to the recent tax strategy papers which propose a range of policy options regarding the carbon tax, such as differentiating on fuel types, stating that the government would consider the proposals in the round. 

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He said times have changed since the carbon tax measures were first introduced. 

“So let me be crystal clear: the Programme for Government supports carbon tax, I support carbon tax… the trajectory was set before there was a war in Ukraine, before there was the situation in the Middle East. So there are policy options for government to consider, and government will consider all of them in the round,” he added. 

All options on the table

A senior government source said “the budget will respond” to concerns about home heating oil, stating that “all options are being considered”. 

Harris specifically pointed to the tax strategy papers, which state that it would be possible to elongate the carbon tax trajectory of increases or create a separate carbon tax trajectory for each fuel product. 

The Tánaiste, who is often criticised for spilling the beans on budget measures before budget day, said this week that he is “trying a new thing now to be very disciplined” in his comments in advance of the budget. 

However, budget day will seem like a long way off during September when there are a number of political flashpoints that could go badly wrong for this government.

The party think-ins are imminent, and in the past have been subject to protests by farmers and road hauliers.

There is also the Irish Hauliers Association conference, as well as the Ploughing Championships, two events where the government could face some ugly scenes.

Had they not pulled the brakes on the planned excise increases this week, those scenes could have been worse. The government is now in a balancing act in the run up to the budget, where it will attempt to give just enough detail to reassure people that assistance is coming, but not too much detail that it will attract criticism that it is not enough.

It is a timing game, where the government is in ‘wait and see’ mode when it comes to fuel prices and the energy markets. The fear and danger will be that no matter what is delivered come budget day, that it won’t be enough to the many that are struggling to make ends meet right now.