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The US mid-terms: The 10 races to watch
With Independence Day done, it’s not long now until the elections that will shape the final two years of the Obama presidency.
WITH THE FOURTH of July out of the way, the starting gun has been fired on many of America’s mid-term elections.
The fights for Senate, House and Gubernatorial seats across the USA will be played out against a backdrop of an economy in recovery, but a President sliding in the approval ratings.
For Barack Obama, these elections are it. The whole ball game. Six years of his Presidency can be effectively ground to a halt if the Democratic Party lose the Senate and continue to be in the minority in the House.
Either way, it’s going to be a real fight.
But, with so many races going on across the massive expanse of the US, how do we in Ireland know what to look out for?
Here ten races to get you started.
- Not sure what the difference between Senate, House and Gubernatorial is? It’s all explained here.
Senate
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell (R) vs Alison Lundergan Grimes (D)
This one will dominate the headlines for the next couple of months. The 72-year-old Senate Minority Leader McConnell holds just a one point advantage on the 35-year-old Secretary of State for Kentucky Lundergan Grimes.
With that in mind, and McConnell’s approval nosediving, the Democrats are smelling blood and have the chance to take a seat in the Blugrass State for the first time since 1999.
Georgia: Michelle Nunn (D) vs Jack Kingston OR David Perdue (All R)
With the retirement of Republican Saxby Chambliss comes an opening for the Democrats. Fighting for their lives in the South, they may be handed a lifeline here – because the Republicans can’t choose a candidate.
A runoff between Kingston, a current Congressman and Perdue will be run on 22 July and could force the eventual winner to the right. That could give Nunn, the daughter of a former Senator, a chance to take a seat that the Democrats need badly.
Louisiana: Mary Landrieu (D) vs Bill Cassidy, Rob Maness, Paul Hollis (All R)
Though voting takes places on 4 November, this race won’t be finished until December in all likelihood.
That is because Louisiana operates an open system whereby there are no primaries, meaning that a number of party candidates can run. However, if one candidate does not attain 50% of the vote, the race goes to a runoff, where the eventual victor is decided.
Landrieu has held the seat since 1997, but with the state turning more and more conservative, she may struggle in what has become an absolute must-win for the Democrats.
House
California 7th District: Ami Bera (D) vs Doug Ose (R)
In 2012, Bera took his seat in the House while a recount was underway back home, nearly 3,000 miles away. That’s how tight this race is going to be. In fact, the district – in the middle of a solid blue state- has an even number of registered Democrats and Republicans.
Colorado 6th District: Mike Coffman (R) vs Andrew Romanoff
Colorado has become a bellweather for Democratic social initiatives, most notably in the legalisation of marijuana. This district is evenly split with Democrats, Republicans and Independents. It will be a long way back to control the House for Democrats and, if they are to do it, they’re going to have to take this seat.
Arizona 2nd District:Ron Barber (D) vs Martha McSally OR Chuck Wooten (R)
Ron Barber took the seat of Representative Gabrielle Giffords after her retirement in 2011 following her shooting. Barber had been Giffords’ district organiser and won the seat in a special election. However, in 2012, he beat retired Air Force Colonel Martha McSally by just 2,500 votes.
Round Two is sure to be a humdinger.
Gubernatorial
Florida: Rick Scott (R) vs Charlie Crist (D)
Florida is a well-known swing state and Charlie Crist swings with the best of them. The Republican-turned-independent-turned-Democrat was Governor of the Sunshine State from 2007 to 2011 and wants the job back.
In his way is Rick Scott, a man frequently touted as future Republican name of a Presidential ticket. Most polling has this as a toss-up and a Crist win will severely bloody the nose of Republicans in the run up to the 2016 Presidential election.
Wisconsin: Scott Walker (R) vs Mary Burke (D)
Scott Walker isn’t very popular. In fact, in 2012 900,000 people demanded a recall election. However, Walker survived that effort – the first time in American history a Governor has done so.
He holds a 47-45 lead over Burke, about whom little is known. His aggressive efforts fighting unions in the state have made him a target, but he should see off Burke.
Georgia: Nathan Deal (R) vs Jason Carter (D)
We are no strangers to political dynasties here in Ireland, but it’s not exclusive to the Dáil. In Georgia, former US President Jimmy Carter’s grandson Jason will attempt to take the seat from former Democrat Deal, who has held some form of office in the Peach State since 1992.
Deal is popular, but Carter is polling well. A recent Public Policy Polling survey had the two tied at 43%.
Land Commissioner
Texas: George P Bush vs John Cook
Why the focus on an election to see who will lead the agency that controls state-owned minerals fields?
The clues should be in the words “George” “Bush” and “Texas”.
Yes, the third generation of George Bushes seeking election has begun. The son of former Florida Governor and potential GOP 2016 candidate Jeb Bush, George P is the grandson and nephew of former presidents.
His Latino heritage (his mother is Mexican) has earned him the nickname “The Hispanic George Bush” and his pedigree will undoubtedly see him pegged as a rising star in a party that absolutely must attract Hispanics in order to win a presidential election.
That he has raised over $3 million dollars and is running in a state where Democrats haven’t won a statewide election in a decade means that he should win by a big margin.
What will be interesting is what the next step is.
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