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Dublin: 11°C Tuesday 17 May 2022

Yes side remains clear - but lead narrows - in latest referendum poll

Red C’s poll for Paddy Power shows the No vote remaining on 31 per cent, but Yes has lost three points to ‘Don’t Know’.

Image: Niall Carson/PA Wire

THE LATEST OPINION poll of voter intentions ahead of the referendum on the Fiscal Compact shows the Yes side retaining a strong lead, although its margin of victory is narrowing.

The Red C poll commissioned by Paddy Power shows exactly half of voters – 50 per cent – declaring their intention to vote Yes in the ballot in 13 days’ time, compared to 31 per cent voting No with the other 19 per cent undecided.

Though the No side’s share of the vote remains unchanged when compared to the most recent Red C poll, published in the weekend’s Sunday Business Post, the Yes side has seen its lead fall by three percentage points, a drop made up by an increase in the ‘Don’t Know’ numbers.

When undecided voters are excluded, the Yes side commands a 62-38 lead, compared to a 63-37 lead in Sunday’s poll.

The telephone poll, conducted between Monday and Wednesday of this week, was taken exactly one week after that published in the Business Post on Sunday; both carry a margin of error of 3 per cent.

Asked about how likely they are to vote in the ballot on Thursday 31st, 59 per cent insist they will definitely vote, while 14 per cent have ruled themselves out of voting. This 14 per cent has been discounted from the voting intentions listed above.

The greatest support for the treaty comes among those aged 55 and older, particularly those living in Dublin and the rest of Leinster, while voters under 25 in the Connacht-Ulster region are the most likely to oppose the treaty.

The poll also shows that voters are increasingly likely to vote in line with their party preference, with 7 per cent of Fine Gael voters, 21 per cent of Labour voters, and 19 per cent of Fianna Fáil voters likely to defy the party’s suggestion and vote No.

By comparison, 78 per cent of Sinn Féin voters are set to reject the treaty, compared to 10 per cent voting Yes. Of voters who do not know how they would vote in a general election, Yes commands a 39 per cent lead compared to No on 25 and Don’t Know on 37.

In full: The Paddy Power/Red C poll (PDF) >

More: ‘This isn’t like Nice and Lisbon’: FG insists there will be no second vote

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Gavan Reilly

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