MORE THAN 70% of people, including a majority of Leave voters, agree that Brexit has been more of a failure than a success in Northern Ireland, an opinion poll has suggested.

The results of the research from Queen’s University Belfast also indicate two-thirds of people in the region believe Brexit has made the break-up of the UK more likely.

The polling, carried out for Queen’s by LucidTalk, suggests that close to half of voters (48%) do not agree that the 2016 Brexit referendum was based on a “fair democratic process”, while 40% agree.

The report is the 15th in the “Testing the Temperature” series on Northern Ireland voters’ views on Brexit and the Northern Ireland Protocol/Windsor Framework, led by Professor David Phinnemore and Professor Katy Hayward.

This latest poll was conducted between April 17-20, using a weighted sample of 1,050 respondents from across Northern Ireland.

The survey found declining public understanding among respondents of the Windsor Framework, the post-Brexit deal between the UK and the EU aimed at reducing trading frictions between Britain and Northern Ireland.

Poll findings included:

• 72% of respondents agree that “Brexit has been more of a failure than a success for Northern Ireland”. This includes 60% of Leave respondents.
• 66% agree that Brexit has made the break-up of the UK more likely; 19% disagree.
• More than twice as many agree (52%) than disagree (23%) that their Brexit-related identity, Leaver or Remainer, is “very important” to them.
• 46% of respondents now regard the Windsor Framework as “on balance a good thing for Northern Ireland”, the lowest level since June 2021, while 38% disagree.
• Perceptions of the Windsor Framework’s economic impact are more positive than negative; 45% believe it has had a positive effect on the economy, while 37% believe its impact has been negative.
• A majority of respondents (57%) believe the Windsor Framework offers unique economic opportunities, down from 68% in summer 2024.
• A majority distrust either a Conservative-led (76%) or Reform-led UK government (70%) to protect Northern Ireland’s interests in EU-UK relations.
• The SDLP is the most trusted party among respondents on the Windsor Framework (38%).
• The TUV is the most trusted unionist party (30%) on the issue, though it is also the most strongly distrusted (50%).

Phinnemore said the poll “provides further evidence that understanding of the Windsor Framework is declining”.

“In part, this is no doubt due to the complexity of some of its arrangements.

“With the UK and EU negotiating new agreements that are expected to reduce trade frictions arising from the Windsor Framework, it will be important that the new arrangements are clearly and reliably explained.

“If they are not, then this will only further damage trust levels in the UK government and the EU.”

Hayward said: “Ten years after the Brexit referendum, one in two voters in Northern Ireland still see their Leave/Remain identity as very important – across both camps and the political spectrum.

“This constitutes an additional layer of division broadly on top of existing ones.

“The need to manage this with compromise on both sides explains the region’s unique post-Brexit arrangements, ie the Windsor Framework.

“It also helps explain why the majority of both Leavers and Remainers here believe – albeit for different reasons – that Brexit has been a failure for Northern Ireland.”

The survey also suggested a preference among voters for closer ties with the EU – 59% of respondents oppose further loosening of UK-EU ties and 57% support the UK rejoining the EU, with strong gender and Remain/Leave divides.

Almost three-quarters (73%) of respondents support Ireland using its EU Council presidency to improve EU-UK relations.