Christina Finn reports from County Cork

OVER THE WEEKEND a poll indicated a third of Fianna Fail voters would give the Fine Gael candidate Heather Humphreys their first preference vote. 

Pushed out for his second press conference of his presidential campaign at the Fianna Fáil think-in in Douglas, County Cork today, the former Dublin GAA manager, Jim Gavin said: 

“From my perspective, polls, predictions, the bookies – I’ve no interest in them.

“My focus will be on Jim Gavin’s campaign, my campaign for the presidency.”

It is a line straight out of the Micheál Martin playbook. 

The Fianna Fáil leader loathes when newspaper polls are read out to him and he’s asked to respond. He often rounds on the media to tell them how they have been mistaken in the past. 

In fairness, the last general election results showed this to be true, with Martin gleefully pointing out just how wrong the pre-election polls were when it came to Fianna Fáil’s performance. 

Gavin is following in Martin’s footsteps, brushing off any suggestion that the party he is running for doesn’t have his back. 

He also dismissed questions around there being any pressure on his shoulders when it comes to Martin’s leadership and whether that could be called into question if he flops in the election. 

The real poll is polling day, as the Taoiseach has said in the past, and Gavin is sticking to that mantra. 

However, despite claims from the Fianna Fáil leader that he gives little heed to the surveys, he probably should fear the first post-budget poll, if the mutterings around the Fianna Fáil think-in are true. 

Lacklustre Budget

As the first day of the think-in closed, Public Expenditure Minister Jack Chambers spoke about budget day expectations.

To put it bluntly, his message was: Don’t be expecting much. 

There is limited scope for income tax cuts, so last year’s promises that people will be €1,000 better off will not be repeated. 

When it comes to a rise in the pension and other social welfare payments – again don’t anticipate the €12 increase that was delivered in 2024. It will be less than that, perhaps around a tenner, was the indication from senior Fianna Fáil sources.

Aside from housing, big promises were made prior to the election about disability services, another issue that landed on the doorstep of the Fianna Fáil think-in today when the Taoiseach arrived in Douglas. 

Antoinette Burke from Cobh, begged the Taoiseach for help today regarding her daughter Katie, who she said was awaiting life-changing hip surgery. He spoke to her for about ten minutes, before promising to follow up on the case. 

Such emotive interactions highlight the sheer desperation many families are facing. Again, the first budget of this new government must deliver meaningful change to those who are forced to turn up to political party events in search of answers, explanations or accountability. 

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And when it comes to housing, a lot is riding on the new Housing for All plan.

Due to be published next month, some in Fianna Fáil have said there are no ‘big bang ideas’ in the document. 

One measure that the party is keen to get over the line is tax breaks for developers, but not like the ones of old. They’ll be different this time around, perhaps time-limited and targeted.

Senior ministers believe they can get the public on their side, if such measures result in serious, and affordable, housing delivery.

While these Fianna Fáil ministers believe they can convince ordinary punters, they might have a tougher job convincing the Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe, who has been clear he is not a fan.

Aside from getting a Fine Gael minister’s agreement, as winter approaches and there is little sight that gas, electricity and grocery prices are set to fall, if this budget is what Fianna Fáil is leading people to believe, the party will struggle to keep the people content with its government.

Why should Fianna Fáil be more fearful than Fine Gael?

For the reason that big promises were made last November, which delivered the party a 10-seat lead on Fine Gael, with Martin getting 48 TDs in the Dáil against Simon Harris’s 38. 

The voters that delivered the result for the party expect real delivery on the promises that were made, but all indications are Budget 2026 won’t scratch the surface of some of the real cost-of-living issues facing people today.